54
Statistical Methods for Estimating Petroleum Resources
play? How do recent discoveries, which are not included in the analysis,
fi t into the prediction picture?
The Beaverhill Lake Play
In the Beaverhill Lake play example, we fi nd that both LDSCV and
NDSCV indicate that the value of N may be 400 or more. If N = 400 is
used, there are three options for choosing a pool-size distribution:
The pool-size distribution derived from LDSCV
1.
The empirical distribution derived from NDSCV with a mean
2.
equal to 2.374 × 10
6 m
3
The lognormal approximation to the empirical distribution
3.
with a mean equal to 1.705 × 10
6 m
3
The matching process is executed based on the empirical distribution. The matching results (Fig. 3.14A) were obtained using the
matching process without subjective judgment and are summarized as
follows.
All pools could be predicted within the 95% to 5% prediction
1.
intervals.
The discovered pool sizes were matched to the median (upper
2.
50th percentile) of each pool as much as possible.
The 13th rank pool could be matched either to the 16th or
3.
beyond. We found a number of ways to match the discoveries
beyond this rank (Table 3.3).
The matching process can predict no further than this point. Other
possible matches were verifi ed using the following procedure:
The pool areas corresponding to the remaining largest pool
1.
sizes were obtained from the plot of area versus size of the
Beaverhill Lake play (Fig. 2.11B).
The pool areas obtained in (1) were validated against seismic
2.
coverage when seismic grids were small enough to reveal prospects that have the range of pool areas.
The predicted pool sizes (Fig. 3.14A) do not show a “smooth”
3.
pattern, as do others. This is because the predicted pool-size
distributions were derived from the empirical distribution.
Statistical Methods for Estimating Petroleum Resources
play? How do recent discoveries, which are not included in the analysis,
fi t into the prediction picture?
The Beaverhill Lake Play
In the Beaverhill Lake play example, we fi nd that both LDSCV and
NDSCV indicate that the value of N may be 400 or more. If N = 400 is
used, there are three options for choosing a pool-size distribution:
The pool-size distribution derived from LDSCV
1.
The empirical distribution derived from NDSCV with a mean
2.
equal to 2.374 × 10
6 m
3
The lognormal approximation to the empirical distribution
3.
with a mean equal to 1.705 × 10
6 m
3
The matching process is executed based on the empirical distribution. The matching results (Fig. 3.14A) were obtained using the
matching process without subjective judgment and are summarized as
follows.
All pools could be predicted within the 95% to 5% prediction
1.
intervals.
The discovered pool sizes were matched to the median (upper
2.
50th percentile) of each pool as much as possible.
The 13th rank pool could be matched either to the 16th or
3.
beyond. We found a number of ways to match the discoveries
beyond this rank (Table 3.3).
The matching process can predict no further than this point. Other
possible matches were verifi ed using the following procedure:
The pool areas corresponding to the remaining largest pool
1.
sizes were obtained from the plot of area versus size of the
Beaverhill Lake play (Fig. 2.11B).
The pool areas obtained in (1) were validated against seismic
2.
coverage when seismic grids were small enough to reveal prospects that have the range of pool areas.
The predicted pool sizes (Fig. 3.14A) do not show a “smooth”
3.
pattern, as do others. This is because the predicted pool-size
distributions were derived from the empirical distribution.