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Contents
Estimating the Covariance Matrix
44
Remarks
45
Pool-Size-by-Rank by Order Statistics
45
Interpretations
47
The Matching Process: Operation
51
The Beaverhill Lake Play
54
Pool Sizes Conditional on Pool Rank
55
Distribution of the Ratio of Two Pools
56
Play Resource and Potential Distribution
57
Play Resource Distribution
57
Play Potential Distribution
58
Expected Play Potential
58
Probable Play Potential Distribution
59
The Beaverhill Lake Play
59
4 More about Discovery Process Models
61
Validation Study by Simulation
61
Validation Procedure
61
Estimates for the N Value
63
Lognormal Population
63
Weibull Population
66
Pareto Population
67
Mixed Population of Two Lognormal Populations
68
Mixed Population of Lognormal, Weibull,
and Pareto Populations
69
Estimation of Exploration Effi ciency
72
Pool-Size-by-Rank
74
Play Resource Distribution
74
Reduction of Uncertainty
77
Validation by Retrospective Study
80
Jumping Pound Rundle Gas Play
80
Swan Hills Shelf Margin Gas and Leduc Isolated
Reef Oil Plays
82
Remarks
83
Impact of Nonproductive and Noncommercial Pools
85
Impact of a Nonproductive Trap
86
Impact of Missing Pools
87
Testing the Adequacy of Probability Distributions
88
The Procedure
89