xii
Preface
included both data management and resource assessment modules.
The system was fi rst described in 1989 in an unpublished Institute of
Sedimentary and Petroleum Geology/Geological Survey of Canada
user guide written by P. J. Lee and Ping Tzeng. In 1992, the federal
government and a grateful nation acknowledged P. J.’s achievements
with the presentation by the Governor General of the Commemorative
Medal during the 125th anniversary of Canadian Confederation. In
1993, P. J. was honored with a gold medal at the fi rst annual Celebration
of Excellence in Information Management.
The impacts of the 1983 crude oil price collapse were calamitous for
Canada’s upstream petroleum industry. Hard times were a harbinger of
the challenges that P. J. and his colleagues faced to gain acceptance for
their methods and results. The fi rst major application described undiscovered conventional crude oil in western Canada, and the results were
criticized as wildly optimistic. But even we had been too conservative.
In a decade, P. J. had to revise the assessment, once exploration found
the median predicted ultimate undiscovered potential.
Acceptance came slowly; there were many seasons of “tough sledding,” although natural gas resource assessments, beginning with the
1993 Devonian study, were more positively received. Even now, probabilistic assessments have not been as strongly embraced as deterministic
petroleum system models. P. J., however, was a patient and passionate
advocate of probabilistic methods. Thus it was with some reservation
that he retired from the Geological Survey of Canada—proud of his
accomplishments, but uncertain of his legacy.
P. J. Lee joined National Cheng Kung University of Taiwan in 1996.
In Taiwan, P. J. was a tireless worker, embracing new challenges that
included geotechnical and structural geology in a country with many
geological hazards. Concurrently, he single-handedly revised the western Canada conventional crude oil assessment. He often worked to the
point of exhaustion. The manuscript that resulted in this volume is but
one product of his many efforts during the last three years of his life.
Particularly considering the expository material in the appendices,
this monograph could well be used as a graduate-level text, as originally intended by the author. It serves also as a guide to PETRIMES,
and as a reference that describes petroleum resource assessment topics
in general. It summarizes assessment methods developed in Canada
under P. J.’s leadership, supplemented by work untaken in Taiwan.
For P. J., the inspiration for all this work began with Prof. Gordon
Kaufman’s discovery process model. P. J. was extremely grateful for
Preface
included both data management and resource assessment modules.
The system was fi rst described in 1989 in an unpublished Institute of
Sedimentary and Petroleum Geology/Geological Survey of Canada
user guide written by P. J. Lee and Ping Tzeng. In 1992, the federal
government and a grateful nation acknowledged P. J.’s achievements
with the presentation by the Governor General of the Commemorative
Medal during the 125th anniversary of Canadian Confederation. In
1993, P. J. was honored with a gold medal at the fi rst annual Celebration
of Excellence in Information Management.
The impacts of the 1983 crude oil price collapse were calamitous for
Canada’s upstream petroleum industry. Hard times were a harbinger of
the challenges that P. J. and his colleagues faced to gain acceptance for
their methods and results. The fi rst major application described undiscovered conventional crude oil in western Canada, and the results were
criticized as wildly optimistic. But even we had been too conservative.
In a decade, P. J. had to revise the assessment, once exploration found
the median predicted ultimate undiscovered potential.
Acceptance came slowly; there were many seasons of “tough sledding,” although natural gas resource assessments, beginning with the
1993 Devonian study, were more positively received. Even now, probabilistic assessments have not been as strongly embraced as deterministic
petroleum system models. P. J., however, was a patient and passionate
advocate of probabilistic methods. Thus it was with some reservation
that he retired from the Geological Survey of Canada—proud of his
accomplishments, but uncertain of his legacy.
P. J. Lee joined National Cheng Kung University of Taiwan in 1996.
In Taiwan, P. J. was a tireless worker, embracing new challenges that
included geotechnical and structural geology in a country with many
geological hazards. Concurrently, he single-handedly revised the western Canada conventional crude oil assessment. He often worked to the
point of exhaustion. The manuscript that resulted in this volume is but
one product of his many efforts during the last three years of his life.
Particularly considering the expository material in the appendices,
this monograph could well be used as a graduate-level text, as originally intended by the author. It serves also as a guide to PETRIMES,
and as a reference that describes petroleum resource assessment topics
in general. It summarizes assessment methods developed in Canada
under P. J.’s leadership, supplemented by work untaken in Taiwan.
For P. J., the inspiration for all this work began with Prof. Gordon
Kaufman’s discovery process model. P. J. was extremely grateful for