245
After all, unlike Iran still reeling from sanctions, Turkey unable to offer more than
commercial and trade ties, and the EU in no financial or political position to infiltrate the region, Chinese leaders may visit the region many times a year, sign a
variety of economic, political, and educational agreements, and back up their words
with plans, financial arrangements, and technical expertise. Bush visited Georgia
once, while Obama did not visit Central Asia and Caspian Sea regions—much to the
chagrin of diplomats on the ground aware that perceptions were a key part of bolstering ties as it functions on the ground. Russia, in contrast with China, has no
financial resources to compare, and thus China’s role can be helpful in modernizing
the energy sector and infrastructure of their southern neighbors. The only risk
involved is that China has had a history of putting countries into a debt trap, taking
over the assets of states in order to compensate for its partners faulting on a loan.
According to one observer interviewed for this study, Chinese interests are
“pretty conventional.” The only concern, they state, from a strategic point of view is
Russia, is
For China to try to manage that is act in a way that doesn’t anger Russia. I think the conventional view now is that we have a marriage or a division of labor—Russia is on the economic side, and I think China is quite happy that. And so if you look at how China should
extend its influence in the world, I think Central Asia is the best bet. I mean, if they didn’t
have all these other obstacles like border disputes and US concerns and Taiwan, then this is
what they would do in other parts of the world. But they can’t do it along the periphery of
other parts of China.
Mistakes in the Caspian Sea Region Since 2000
When it comes to mistakes, interviewees differed on their focus. Many of these differences were the result of a difference of perspective. Long-term career diplomats
tended to view breaks in long-term progress with negativity, while figures from the
oil and gas industry tended to find fault with diplomatic efforts which could not be
justified by economic or political gains. In essence, the mistakes the US made in
both the Bush and Obama eras can be summed up by the following points:
• A loss of its interest toward the region.
• A failure to engage at high-level politicians in the region.
• Overly focus on the Nabucco project.
• Failure to effectively intervene in border disputes and crises.
• Over-selling America’s capacity to incorporate the Caspian states into the
Western political-economic order.
• Elimination of Special Envoy for Eurasia energy.
The shale revolution has unfolded so quickly that policymakers have still not had
time to adapt to the shift in realities and its implications for foreign policy. Still, in
terms of energy politics, it is not Central Asia, but the Middle East which will first
feel the effect of however this shift manifests itself. In any sense, the international
scene is now a lot more fluid, and America’s interests are no longer tied exclusively
Mistakes in the Caspian Sea Region Since 2000
After all, unlike Iran still reeling from sanctions, Turkey unable to offer more than
commercial and trade ties, and the EU in no financial or political position to infiltrate the region, Chinese leaders may visit the region many times a year, sign a
variety of economic, political, and educational agreements, and back up their words
with plans, financial arrangements, and technical expertise. Bush visited Georgia
once, while Obama did not visit Central Asia and Caspian Sea regions—much to the
chagrin of diplomats on the ground aware that perceptions were a key part of bolstering ties as it functions on the ground. Russia, in contrast with China, has no
financial resources to compare, and thus China’s role can be helpful in modernizing
the energy sector and infrastructure of their southern neighbors. The only risk
involved is that China has had a history of putting countries into a debt trap, taking
over the assets of states in order to compensate for its partners faulting on a loan.
According to one observer interviewed for this study, Chinese interests are
“pretty conventional.” The only concern, they state, from a strategic point of view is
Russia, is
For China to try to manage that is act in a way that doesn’t anger Russia. I think the conventional view now is that we have a marriage or a division of labor—Russia is on the economic side, and I think China is quite happy that. And so if you look at how China should
extend its influence in the world, I think Central Asia is the best bet. I mean, if they didn’t
have all these other obstacles like border disputes and US concerns and Taiwan, then this is
what they would do in other parts of the world. But they can’t do it along the periphery of
other parts of China.
Mistakes in the Caspian Sea Region Since 2000
When it comes to mistakes, interviewees differed on their focus. Many of these differences were the result of a difference of perspective. Long-term career diplomats
tended to view breaks in long-term progress with negativity, while figures from the
oil and gas industry tended to find fault with diplomatic efforts which could not be
justified by economic or political gains. In essence, the mistakes the US made in
both the Bush and Obama eras can be summed up by the following points:
• A loss of its interest toward the region.
• A failure to engage at high-level politicians in the region.
• Overly focus on the Nabucco project.
• Failure to effectively intervene in border disputes and crises.
• Over-selling America’s capacity to incorporate the Caspian states into the
Western political-economic order.
• Elimination of Special Envoy for Eurasia energy.
The shale revolution has unfolded so quickly that policymakers have still not had
time to adapt to the shift in realities and its implications for foreign policy. Still, in
terms of energy politics, it is not Central Asia, but the Middle East which will first
feel the effect of however this shift manifests itself. In any sense, the international
scene is now a lot more fluid, and America’s interests are no longer tied exclusively
Mistakes in the Caspian Sea Region Since 2000