88
J. Zhou and S. Chang
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
S2 scenario (loose allowance)
Carbon price (RMB yuan)
S1 scenario (moderate allowance)
Fig. 3.15 Carbon prices resulting from different allowance allocation scenarios
Table 3.6 Carbon prices in S1 scenario (moderate allowance) and its impact
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
S1
scenario
54
65
89
93
103
112
125
137
Carbon
price
(yuan/t
CO 2 )
54
65
89
93
103
112
125
137
Change
rate in
total GDP
−0.29% −0.38% −0.56% −0.65% −0.73% −0.78% −0.83% −0.89%
Change
rate in
GDP
growth
−0.31% −0.10% −0.20% −0.09% −0.08% −0.06% −0.06% −0.06%
Change
rate in
energy
intensity
compared
to 2010
−25.01%
−39.35%
Change
rate in
carbon
intensity
compared
to 2010
−29.01%
−44.27%