2 THE POLITICS OF LOW-CARBON ENERGY IN IRAN AND IRAQ
25
On the whole, the energy transition might be expected to favour a
state with large gas resources, such as Iran, over neighbours whose hydrocarbon endowment is biased more to oil, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait
and Iraq. Iran could indeed, in the longer term, expand gas exports by
pipeline to neighbours, and perhaps develop some LNG exports. But
because of internal bureaucracy and debate, high domestic consumption
and the likely continuing impact of at least some level of sanctions and
regional tensions, it is unlikely that Iran will become a major exporter of
gas on the scale of Russia, Qatar or the USA. 20
Nuclear Power
Iran’s civil nuclear power plans date back to the 1950s, with the establishment of a programme under US President Eisenhower’s ‘Atoms for
Peace’ initiative. The Tehran Research Reactor was set up in 1967, and
Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi launched a programme to build nuclear
generation in 1974.
This was at a time of optimism over nuclear’s future in Western
countries (and the Soviet bloc 21 ); nuclear power was seen as a sign of
technological advance. The Shah was in a hurry to build his ‘great civilisation’, had ample oil revenues following the 1973–1974 price surge and
had been diagnosed with cancer in 1974, although it is not entirely clear
how aware he was of the seriousness of his condition. 22 Iran’s crude oil
production reached its all-time high of 6.02 million barrels per day in
1974, 23 and there were concerns its reserves would be depleted by the
1980s. 24 They were estimated at 58.8 billion barrels in 1979, which at the
1974 production level would have been totally exhausted within 27 years.
The country was flaring large quantities of associated gas, but again it
was expected that would be captured and used productively by the 1980s,
and major projects were planned to use gas for reinjection for improved
oil recovery. The supergiant South Pars field, Iran’s share of the structure
known as North Field in Qatar, would not be discovered until 1990. 25
The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) was set up in 1974
under Akbar Etemad, 26 and received lavish funding, with a budget in
1976 of $1.3 billion, larger than any public institution other than the
oil industry. 27 Alumni of its training programmes include Ali Akbar
Salehi, later head of the AEOI under the Islamic Republic (2009–2010,
2013–present). The plans were for 23 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear generation, via deals with France, West Germany and the USA. However, the
25
On the whole, the energy transition might be expected to favour a
state with large gas resources, such as Iran, over neighbours whose hydrocarbon endowment is biased more to oil, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait
and Iraq. Iran could indeed, in the longer term, expand gas exports by
pipeline to neighbours, and perhaps develop some LNG exports. But
because of internal bureaucracy and debate, high domestic consumption
and the likely continuing impact of at least some level of sanctions and
regional tensions, it is unlikely that Iran will become a major exporter of
gas on the scale of Russia, Qatar or the USA. 20
Nuclear Power
Iran’s civil nuclear power plans date back to the 1950s, with the establishment of a programme under US President Eisenhower’s ‘Atoms for
Peace’ initiative. The Tehran Research Reactor was set up in 1967, and
Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi launched a programme to build nuclear
generation in 1974.
This was at a time of optimism over nuclear’s future in Western
countries (and the Soviet bloc 21 ); nuclear power was seen as a sign of
technological advance. The Shah was in a hurry to build his ‘great civilisation’, had ample oil revenues following the 1973–1974 price surge and
had been diagnosed with cancer in 1974, although it is not entirely clear
how aware he was of the seriousness of his condition. 22 Iran’s crude oil
production reached its all-time high of 6.02 million barrels per day in
1974, 23 and there were concerns its reserves would be depleted by the
1980s. 24 They were estimated at 58.8 billion barrels in 1979, which at the
1974 production level would have been totally exhausted within 27 years.
The country was flaring large quantities of associated gas, but again it
was expected that would be captured and used productively by the 1980s,
and major projects were planned to use gas for reinjection for improved
oil recovery. The supergiant South Pars field, Iran’s share of the structure
known as North Field in Qatar, would not be discovered until 1990. 25
The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) was set up in 1974
under Akbar Etemad, 26 and received lavish funding, with a budget in
1976 of $1.3 billion, larger than any public institution other than the
oil industry. 27 Alumni of its training programmes include Ali Akbar
Salehi, later head of the AEOI under the Islamic Republic (2009–2010,
2013–present). The plans were for 23 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear generation, via deals with France, West Germany and the USA. However, the