286 L.-C. SIM
lower investment costs due to this modularity, and potentially inherently
higher safety and proliferation resistance (depending on the design). 89
Jordan is seen as a particularly good fit for SMRs; it has signed cooperation agreements with SMR developers based in US, Russia, Argentina,
South Korea, and China. Saudi Arabia is equally enthusiastic about SMRs
for stand-alone desalination plants; in this regard, it recently agreed to
license for use in the kingdom the SMART SMR built by South Korea and
to jointly build a prototype. However, no commercially operational SMR
exists yet, with the earliest starting up only after 2025 at best; potential
purchaser countries are also disinclined to be the guinea pig even for this
new and promising technology. The fact that the most advanced SMRs
in terms of licensing approvals originate in the US adds another layer of
complication for states like Jordan and Saudi Arabia since they have been
reluctant to conclude ‘gold standard’ 123 agreements with the US.
The other niche level development that will impact nuclear newbuild
in MENA is the cost of alternative energy options. Thanks to the precipitous fall in prices of solar modules, for example, nuclear expert Ali Ahmad
opined that ‘nuclear power, large and small, does not meet the criterion of
economic competitiveness…nuclear electricity is already more expensive
than that produced by solar technologies. The coupling between renewables and natural gas offers Saudi Arabia the most economically optimal
option’ 90 ; a similar recommendation was made for Jordan. Ever lower bid
prices for solar and wind projects in MENA, the increasing experience
of homegrown developers like ACWA Power and Masdar, and the availability of low-cost financing will enhance the attractiveness of non-nuclear
alternatives. Another example of a competing niche technology is battery
storage for solar or wind projects, which will overcome generation variability and essentially transform them into dispatchable baseload power
similar to fossil fuels or nuclear energy. Although the costs of lithiumion batteries have fallen from $1100 per kWh in 2010 to $156 per kWh
in 2019, they need to fall much further to be cost-competitive beyond
short-term storage requirements. 91
Conclusion
For the UAE, the disruption at the landscape level caused by the
increasing acceptability of nuclear power was instrumental in opening a
timely policy window. This coincided with the new, post-Zayed hyperdevelopment mantra at the regime level that required energy not readily
lower investment costs due to this modularity, and potentially inherently
higher safety and proliferation resistance (depending on the design). 89
Jordan is seen as a particularly good fit for SMRs; it has signed cooperation agreements with SMR developers based in US, Russia, Argentina,
South Korea, and China. Saudi Arabia is equally enthusiastic about SMRs
for stand-alone desalination plants; in this regard, it recently agreed to
license for use in the kingdom the SMART SMR built by South Korea and
to jointly build a prototype. However, no commercially operational SMR
exists yet, with the earliest starting up only after 2025 at best; potential
purchaser countries are also disinclined to be the guinea pig even for this
new and promising technology. The fact that the most advanced SMRs
in terms of licensing approvals originate in the US adds another layer of
complication for states like Jordan and Saudi Arabia since they have been
reluctant to conclude ‘gold standard’ 123 agreements with the US.
The other niche level development that will impact nuclear newbuild
in MENA is the cost of alternative energy options. Thanks to the precipitous fall in prices of solar modules, for example, nuclear expert Ali Ahmad
opined that ‘nuclear power, large and small, does not meet the criterion of
economic competitiveness…nuclear electricity is already more expensive
than that produced by solar technologies. The coupling between renewables and natural gas offers Saudi Arabia the most economically optimal
option’ 90 ; a similar recommendation was made for Jordan. Ever lower bid
prices for solar and wind projects in MENA, the increasing experience
of homegrown developers like ACWA Power and Masdar, and the availability of low-cost financing will enhance the attractiveness of non-nuclear
alternatives. Another example of a competing niche technology is battery
storage for solar or wind projects, which will overcome generation variability and essentially transform them into dispatchable baseload power
similar to fossil fuels or nuclear energy. Although the costs of lithiumion batteries have fallen from $1100 per kWh in 2010 to $156 per kWh
in 2019, they need to fall much further to be cost-competitive beyond
short-term storage requirements. 91
Conclusion
For the UAE, the disruption at the landscape level caused by the
increasing acceptability of nuclear power was instrumental in opening a
timely policy window. This coincided with the new, post-Zayed hyperdevelopment mantra at the regime level that required energy not readily