registered number of cases in this country quickly exceeded the saturation levels
V 1 presented in Table 6.4. This fact motivated to make new calculations using
more recent data from Table 6.6. The results are given in Table 6.7 and in
Fig. 6.11.
The value V f for the prediction 6 was interpolated with the use figures for
accumulated number of cases in Italy 258,136 (on August 22, 2020) and weekly
increase 4698 available in WHO report [82]. Unfortunately, WHO stopped to
present daily information after August 16, 2020. The SIR curves corresponding to
prediction 6 are presented in Fig. 6.11.
It can be seen that the previous predictions for Italy were more optimistic. Fresh
data sets have showed that the final number of cases in Italy could reach 226,000
Table 6.6 Official cumulative numbers of confirmed cases in Italy, Spain, Germany, France,
Austria and Moldova in March and April 2020 [1, 74]
Day in
March
and
April,
2020
Time
moments
in days t j
Number
of cases
in Italy
Number
of cases
in Spain
Number of
cases
in Germany
Number
of cases
in France
Number
of cases
in Austria
Number
of cases
in the
Republic
of
Moldova
28
35
92,472
72,248
52,547
37,145
8291
231
29
36
97,689
78,797
57,298
39,642
8813
263
30
37
101,739 85,195
61,913
43,977
9618
298
31
38
105,792 94,417
67,366
51,477
10,182
353
1
39
110,574 102,136 73,522
56,261
10,711
423
2
40
115,242 110,238 79,696
58,327
11,129
591
3
41
119,827 117,710 85,778
63,536
11,525
591
4
42
124,632 124,736 91,714
67,757
11,766
752
5
43
128,948 130,759 95,391
69,607
11,983
864
6
44
132,547 135,032 99,225
73,488
12,297
965
7
45
135,586 140,510 103,228
77,226
12,640
1056
8
46
139,422 146,690 108,202
81,095
12,969
1174
9
47
143,626 152,446 113,525
85,351
13,248
1289
10
48
147,577 157,022 117,658
89,683
13,560
1438
11
49
152,271 161,852 120,479
92,787
13,807
1560
12
50
156,363 166,019 123,016
94,382
13,937
1662
13
51
159,516 169,496 125,098
97,050
14,043
1712
14
52
162,488 172,541 127,584
102,533
14,234
1934
15
53
165,155 177,633 130,450
105,155
14,370
2049
16
54
168,941 182,816 133,830
107,778
14,448
2154
17
55
172,434 188,068 137,439
108,163
14,603
2264
18
56
175,925 191,726 139,897
110,721
14,662
2351
19
57
178,972 195,944 141,672
111,463
14,710
2472
20
58
181,228 200,210 143,457
113,513
14,783
2548
6.3 Italy
51
V 1 presented in Table 6.4. This fact motivated to make new calculations using
more recent data from Table 6.6. The results are given in Table 6.7 and in
Fig. 6.11.
The value V f for the prediction 6 was interpolated with the use figures for
accumulated number of cases in Italy 258,136 (on August 22, 2020) and weekly
increase 4698 available in WHO report [82]. Unfortunately, WHO stopped to
present daily information after August 16, 2020. The SIR curves corresponding to
prediction 6 are presented in Fig. 6.11.
It can be seen that the previous predictions for Italy were more optimistic. Fresh
data sets have showed that the final number of cases in Italy could reach 226,000
Table 6.6 Official cumulative numbers of confirmed cases in Italy, Spain, Germany, France,
Austria and Moldova in March and April 2020 [1, 74]
Day in
March
and
April,
2020
Time
moments
in days t j
Number
of cases
in Italy
Number
of cases
in Spain
Number of
cases
in Germany
Number
of cases
in France
Number
of cases
in Austria
Number
of cases
in the
Republic
of
Moldova
28
35
92,472
72,248
52,547
37,145
8291
231
29
36
97,689
78,797
57,298
39,642
8813
263
30
37
101,739 85,195
61,913
43,977
9618
298
31
38
105,792 94,417
67,366
51,477
10,182
353
1
39
110,574 102,136 73,522
56,261
10,711
423
2
40
115,242 110,238 79,696
58,327
11,129
591
3
41
119,827 117,710 85,778
63,536
11,525
591
4
42
124,632 124,736 91,714
67,757
11,766
752
5
43
128,948 130,759 95,391
69,607
11,983
864
6
44
132,547 135,032 99,225
73,488
12,297
965
7
45
135,586 140,510 103,228
77,226
12,640
1056
8
46
139,422 146,690 108,202
81,095
12,969
1174
9
47
143,626 152,446 113,525
85,351
13,248
1289
10
48
147,577 157,022 117,658
89,683
13,560
1438
11
49
152,271 161,852 120,479
92,787
13,807
1560
12
50
156,363 166,019 123,016
94,382
13,937
1662
13
51
159,516 169,496 125,098
97,050
14,043
1712
14
52
162,488 172,541 127,584
102,533
14,234
1934
15
53
165,155 177,633 130,450
105,155
14,370
2049
16
54
168,941 182,816 133,830
107,778
14,448
2154
17
55
172,434 188,068 137,439
108,163
14,603
2264
18
56
175,925 191,726 139,897
110,721
14,662
2351
19
57
178,972 195,944 141,672
111,463
14,710
2472
20
58
181,228 200,210 143,457
113,513
14,783
2548
6.3 Italy
51