calculations (“stars”) are shown in Figs. 6.6 and 6.7 by magenta color for South
Korea. Other countries and regions are also represented in these figures with the use
of different colors. Corresponding optimal values of SIR parameters will be presented later in this chapter.
Figures 6.6 and 6.7 demonstrate that the confirmed number of cases in the
Republic of Korea deviated not very significantly from the theoretical estimation.
Magenta “triangles” approach magenta lines rather fast and coincide after March 1,
2020. It means that infected persons were detected and isolated faster in comparison
Table 6.3 Official cumulative numbers of confirmed cases in the Republic of Korea, Germany,
UK, USA and the world used for calculations and verifications of predictions [1, 77]
Day in
April and
May, 2020
Time
in
days
t j
Number of
cases in
South Korea
Number of
cases in
Germany
Number
of cases
in UK
Number
of cases
in USA
Global
number
of cases
9
47
10,450
113,525
65,081
425,889
1,521,252
10
48
10,480
117,658
70,276
461,275
1,610,909
11
49
10,512
120,479
78,995
492,881
1,696,588
12
50
10,537
123,016
84,283
524,514
1,773,084
13
51
10,564
125,098
88,625
553,822
1,844,863
14
52
10,591
127,584
93,877
578,268
1,914,916
15
53
10,613
130,450
98,480
604,070
1,991,562
16
54
10,635
133,830
103,097
632,781
2,074,529
17
55
10,653
137,439
108,696
665,330
2,160,207
18
56
10,661
139,897
114,221
695,353
2,241,359
19
57
10,674
141,672
120,071
723,605
2,314,621
20
58
10,683
143,457
124,747
751,273
2,397,216
21
59
10,694
145,694
129,048
776,907
2,471,136
22
60
10,702
148,046
133,499
800,926
2,544,792
23
61
10,708
150,383
138,082
830,053
2,626,321
24
62
10,718
152,438
143,468
860,772
2,719,897
25
63
10,728
154,175
148,381
899,281
2,804,796
26
64
10,738
155,193
152,844
931,698
2,878,196
27
65
10,752
156,337
157,153
960,916
2,954,222
28
66
10,761
157,641
161,149
983,457
3,018,952
29
67
10,765
159,119
165,225
1,003,974
3,090,445
30
68
10,774
159,119
171,257
1,035,353
3,175,207
1
69
10,780
161,703
177,458
1,067,127
3,267,184
2
70
10,793
162,496
182,264
1,093,880
3,349,786
3
71
10,801
163,175
186,603
1,125,719
3,435,894
4
72
10,804
163,860
190,588
1,154,985
3,517,345
5
73
10,806
164,897
194,994
1,171,185
3,588,773
7
75
10,822
167,300
206,719
1,215,571
3,759,967
44
6 SIR Simulations for the First Waves of the COVID-19 …
Korea. Other countries and regions are also represented in these figures with the use
of different colors. Corresponding optimal values of SIR parameters will be presented later in this chapter.
Figures 6.6 and 6.7 demonstrate that the confirmed number of cases in the
Republic of Korea deviated not very significantly from the theoretical estimation.
Magenta “triangles” approach magenta lines rather fast and coincide after March 1,
2020. It means that infected persons were detected and isolated faster in comparison
Table 6.3 Official cumulative numbers of confirmed cases in the Republic of Korea, Germany,
UK, USA and the world used for calculations and verifications of predictions [1, 77]
Day in
April and
May, 2020
Time
in
days
t j
Number of
cases in
South Korea
Number of
cases in
Germany
Number
of cases
in UK
Number
of cases
in USA
Global
number
of cases
9
47
10,450
113,525
65,081
425,889
1,521,252
10
48
10,480
117,658
70,276
461,275
1,610,909
11
49
10,512
120,479
78,995
492,881
1,696,588
12
50
10,537
123,016
84,283
524,514
1,773,084
13
51
10,564
125,098
88,625
553,822
1,844,863
14
52
10,591
127,584
93,877
578,268
1,914,916
15
53
10,613
130,450
98,480
604,070
1,991,562
16
54
10,635
133,830
103,097
632,781
2,074,529
17
55
10,653
137,439
108,696
665,330
2,160,207
18
56
10,661
139,897
114,221
695,353
2,241,359
19
57
10,674
141,672
120,071
723,605
2,314,621
20
58
10,683
143,457
124,747
751,273
2,397,216
21
59
10,694
145,694
129,048
776,907
2,471,136
22
60
10,702
148,046
133,499
800,926
2,544,792
23
61
10,708
150,383
138,082
830,053
2,626,321
24
62
10,718
152,438
143,468
860,772
2,719,897
25
63
10,728
154,175
148,381
899,281
2,804,796
26
64
10,738
155,193
152,844
931,698
2,878,196
27
65
10,752
156,337
157,153
960,916
2,954,222
28
66
10,761
157,641
161,149
983,457
3,018,952
29
67
10,765
159,119
165,225
1,003,974
3,090,445
30
68
10,774
159,119
171,257
1,035,353
3,175,207
1
69
10,780
161,703
177,458
1,067,127
3,267,184
2
70
10,793
162,496
182,264
1,093,880
3,349,786
3
71
10,801
163,175
186,603
1,125,719
3,435,894
4
72
10,804
163,860
190,588
1,154,985
3,517,345
5
73
10,806
164,897
194,994
1,171,185
3,588,773
7
75
10,822
167,300
206,719
1,215,571
3,759,967
44
6 SIR Simulations for the First Waves of the COVID-19 …