Figure 7.12 shows two distinct minima of w i À w iÀ1 distribution, corresponding
to the beginning of March and the middle of May 2020. There are also some local
minima, indicating rather irregular statistics in the WHO Western Pacific region.
Another characteristic feature of the pandemic dynamics in this region is the very
low number of cases per capita. The value V B =N pop ¼ 45 is much lower than the
global figure 2732 and the corresponding ratios in other regions (see Table 7.5). To
compare the number of cases per capita corresponding to the fixed day, the accumulated number V A registered on September 26, 2020, [86] is also shown in
Table 7.5. The value V A =N pop ¼ 306 much lower than the global figure 4199 and
the corresponding ratios in other regions (see Table 7.5 and compare magenta and
black markers in Fig. 7.13).
Figure 7.13 shows that the statistical estimation (7.6) agrees quite well with the
V B =N pop values (“triangles”) for the world and many regions. But the real numbers
of cases per capita were higher in the Americas (orange markers), lower in Africa
(blue) and much lower in the WHO Western Pacific region (magenta). Estimation
(7.5) agrees only with the data for the WHO African region. It is worth recalling
that Eq. (7.6) corresponds to the best fitting line for SIR simulations data without
taking into account China and Korea (n = 11), which are in the Western Pacific
region, and Eq. (7.5) taking into account them (n = 13). The obtained results testify
to the special nature of the pandemic dynamics in this region. Explanations of this
fact are still waiting for its researchers, but let us express some hypotheses.
First of all, the pandemic probably started in this region in August 2019 (according to the estimation of t
Ã
1 for the world, see Table 6.25, prediction 2). It means
that first COVID-19 cases in China (probably in South Korea and other countries)
Fig. 7.13 Registered number of cases per capita in different WHO regions and theoretical
estimations versus the volume of population. “Crosses” represent V A =N pop values: “triangles”—V B =N pop ; colors of markers are similar to those used in Figs. 7.6, 7.7, 7.8, 7.9, 7.10, 7.11
and 7.12 for different WHO regions, global values are shown in black; the volume of population
N pop is measured in millions. Dashed line corresponds to estimation (7.5); solid one to (7.6)
106
7 Comparison of the First Waves of the COVID-19 …
to the beginning of March and the middle of May 2020. There are also some local
minima, indicating rather irregular statistics in the WHO Western Pacific region.
Another characteristic feature of the pandemic dynamics in this region is the very
low number of cases per capita. The value V B =N pop ¼ 45 is much lower than the
global figure 2732 and the corresponding ratios in other regions (see Table 7.5). To
compare the number of cases per capita corresponding to the fixed day, the accumulated number V A registered on September 26, 2020, [86] is also shown in
Table 7.5. The value V A =N pop ¼ 306 much lower than the global figure 4199 and
the corresponding ratios in other regions (see Table 7.5 and compare magenta and
black markers in Fig. 7.13).
Figure 7.13 shows that the statistical estimation (7.6) agrees quite well with the
V B =N pop values (“triangles”) for the world and many regions. But the real numbers
of cases per capita were higher in the Americas (orange markers), lower in Africa
(blue) and much lower in the WHO Western Pacific region (magenta). Estimation
(7.5) agrees only with the data for the WHO African region. It is worth recalling
that Eq. (7.6) corresponds to the best fitting line for SIR simulations data without
taking into account China and Korea (n = 11), which are in the Western Pacific
region, and Eq. (7.5) taking into account them (n = 13). The obtained results testify
to the special nature of the pandemic dynamics in this region. Explanations of this
fact are still waiting for its researchers, but let us express some hypotheses.
First of all, the pandemic probably started in this region in August 2019 (according to the estimation of t
Ã
1 for the world, see Table 6.25, prediction 2). It means
that first COVID-19 cases in China (probably in South Korea and other countries)
Fig. 7.13 Registered number of cases per capita in different WHO regions and theoretical
estimations versus the volume of population. “Crosses” represent V A =N pop values: “triangles”—V B =N pop ; colors of markers are similar to those used in Figs. 7.6, 7.7, 7.8, 7.9, 7.10, 7.11
and 7.12 for different WHO regions, global values are shown in black; the volume of population
N pop is measured in millions. Dashed line corresponds to estimation (7.5); solid one to (7.6)
106
7 Comparison of the First Waves of the COVID-19 …