its duration t final À t
Ã
1 and the hidden period (the number of days between the
estimated epidemic outbreak t
Ã
1 and the day when the first COVID-19 case was
confirmed). It can be seen that the longest epidemic durations were expected in the
countries with the longest hidden periods (USA, Italy and Germany). After June
2020, values w i À w iÀ1 started to increase in the WHO European region. This
growth became very rapid in September–October, indicating the intense subsequent
waves of the pandemic in Europe. Next we will dwell in detail on the course of
these waves in Ukraine and predict the final sizes of new epidemic waves in USA,
Germany, the UK, the Republic of Korea, Italy, Austria, Spain, France, Sweden,
the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, the city of Kyiv, and the whole world.
Figure 7.11 illustrates that the minimum of w i À w iÀ1 values probably was not
achieved in the beginning of October 2020. We may expect the first pandemic wave
did not finish in the WHO South-East Asia region. For comparison with other
regions, we take the accumulated number of cases V B corresponding to October 3,
2020 (see Table 7.5). Unfortunately, the value V B =N pop ¼ 3914 was already much
higher than the global figure 2732 and the corresponding ratios in other regions (an
exception is only the Americas, see Table 7.5).
Table 7.6 First waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemic characteristics for different
countries and regions. Estimated days of epidemic outbreak, hidden periods, epidemic durations,
the final days and number of cases
Country or
region,
number of
prediction
Last day of
data set used
for
calculations
Estimated
day of
epidemic
outbreak, t
Ã
1
Hidden
period,
days
Epidemic
duration,
t final À t
Ã
1 ,
days
Last day of
epidemic,
t final
Final
number
of cases,
V 1
World, 1
April 29
October 1
68
537
March 21,
2021
5,041,436
USA
April 29
November
28
55
300
September
23
1,481,153
Germany, 2
April 29
December
10
48
238
August 4
176,952
UK
April 29
January 6
25
227
August 20
214,899
South
Korea, 2
April 29
December
28
23
183
June 29
10,842
Italy, 4
April 18
November
26
65
266
August 18
225,736
Spain, 2
April 18
January 9
22
179
July 6
221,011
France, 2
April 18
January 24
0
148
June 20
129,823
Austria, 6
April 10
February 6
19
103
May 19
15,108
Moldova, 2
April 18
February 26 10
110
June 15
3,541
Ukraine, 3
April 24
February 16 15
160
July 26
15,273
Kyiv, 2
April 24
March 2
17
122
July 2
1,947
7 Comparison of the First Waves of the COVID-19 …
105
Ã
1 and the hidden period (the number of days between the
estimated epidemic outbreak t
Ã
1 and the day when the first COVID-19 case was
confirmed). It can be seen that the longest epidemic durations were expected in the
countries with the longest hidden periods (USA, Italy and Germany). After June
2020, values w i À w iÀ1 started to increase in the WHO European region. This
growth became very rapid in September–October, indicating the intense subsequent
waves of the pandemic in Europe. Next we will dwell in detail on the course of
these waves in Ukraine and predict the final sizes of new epidemic waves in USA,
Germany, the UK, the Republic of Korea, Italy, Austria, Spain, France, Sweden,
the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, the city of Kyiv, and the whole world.
Figure 7.11 illustrates that the minimum of w i À w iÀ1 values probably was not
achieved in the beginning of October 2020. We may expect the first pandemic wave
did not finish in the WHO South-East Asia region. For comparison with other
regions, we take the accumulated number of cases V B corresponding to October 3,
2020 (see Table 7.5). Unfortunately, the value V B =N pop ¼ 3914 was already much
higher than the global figure 2732 and the corresponding ratios in other regions (an
exception is only the Americas, see Table 7.5).
Table 7.6 First waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemic characteristics for different
countries and regions. Estimated days of epidemic outbreak, hidden periods, epidemic durations,
the final days and number of cases
Country or
region,
number of
prediction
Last day of
data set used
for
calculations
Estimated
day of
epidemic
outbreak, t
Ã
1
Hidden
period,
days
Epidemic
duration,
t final À t
Ã
1 ,
days
Last day of
epidemic,
t final
Final
number
of cases,
V 1
World, 1
April 29
October 1
68
537
March 21,
2021
5,041,436
USA
April 29
November
28
55
300
September
23
1,481,153
Germany, 2
April 29
December
10
48
238
August 4
176,952
UK
April 29
January 6
25
227
August 20
214,899
South
Korea, 2
April 29
December
28
23
183
June 29
10,842
Italy, 4
April 18
November
26
65
266
August 18
225,736
Spain, 2
April 18
January 9
22
179
July 6
221,011
France, 2
April 18
January 24
0
148
June 20
129,823
Austria, 6
April 10
February 6
19
103
May 19
15,108
Moldova, 2
April 18
February 26 10
110
June 15
3,541
Ukraine, 3
April 24
February 16 15
160
July 26
15,273
Kyiv, 2
April 24
March 2
17
122
July 2
1,947
7 Comparison of the First Waves of the COVID-19 …
105