are also regional models which include a representation of
climate indicators such as water isotopes (e.g., REMO-ISO,
Sturm et al. 2007).
The evolution of climate models in the near future will
involve not only an increasingly fine resolution as computing power increases and an explicit resolution of phenomena
previously parametrized or ignored, but also the construction
of increasingly comprehensive models of the climate system.
Not only will the physical and dynamic aspects of the climate system be addressed, but also the biogeochemical
cycles, in particular the carbon cycle. This trend is already
emerging and is important not only to understand the evolution of past climates but also to forecast the climates of the
future (see Chap. 31).
For Further Information
McGuffie, K., & Henderson-Sellers, A. (2005). A climate modelling
primer (3rd ed., 280 p). Wiley.
References
Berger, A., (1978). Long-term variations of daily insolation and
quaternary climatic changes. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,
35, 2362–2367.
Berger, A., et al. (1998). Sensitivity of the LLN Climate model to the
astronomical and CO 2 forcings over the last 200 Ky. Climate
Dynamics, 14, 615–629.
Braconnot, P., et al. (2007a). Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of
the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum—Part 1: Experiments and large-scale features. Climate of the Past, 3, 261–277.
Braconnot, P., et al. (2007b). Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of
the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum—Part 2: Feedbacks
with emphasis on the location of the ITCZ and mid- and high
latitudes heat budget. Climate of the Past, 3, 279–296.
Budyko, M. (1969). The effect of solar radiation variations on the
climate of the earth. Tellus, 21, 611–619.
Calov, R., et al. (2002). Large-scale instabilities of the Laurentide ice
sheet simulated in a fully coupled climate-system model. Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 2216.
Claussen, M., et al. (2002). Earth system models of Intermediate
complexity: Closing the gap in the spectrum of climate system
models. Climate Dynamics, 18, 579–586.
CLIMAP. (1976). The surface of the Ice-Age earth. Science, 191,
1138–1141.
CLIMAP. (1981). Seasonal reconstructions of the earth’s Surface at
the Last Glacial Maximum. Geological Society of America, Map
Chart Series MC-36, Boulder, Colorado.
Gates, W. L. (1976). Modeling the Ice-Age climate. Science, 191,
1138–1144.
Gallée, H., van Ypersele, J.-P., Fichefet, T., Marsiat, I., Tricot, C.,
Berger, A. (1992). Simulation of the Last Glacial cycle by a
coupled, sectorially averaged climate-ice sheet model. 2. Response
to insolation and CO2 variations. Journal of Geophysical Research,
971, 15713–15740. https://doi.org/10.1029/92JD01256.
Hargreaves, J. C., et al. (2007). Linking Glacial and future Climates
through an ensemble of GCM simulations. Climate of the Past, 3,
77–87.
IPCC. (2007). 4e rapport. http://www.ipcc.ch.
Jouzel, J., et al. (1993). Vostok ice cores: Extending the climatic
records over the penultimate Glacial Period. Nature, 364, 407–412.
Joussaume, S. & Taylor, K. E. (1995). Status of the paleoclimate
modeling intercomparison project (PMIP). In Proceedings of the
First International AMIP Scientific Conference. WCRP Report,
(pp. 425–430).
Jost, A., Lunt, D., Kageyama, M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Peyron, O., Valdes,
P. J., Ramstein, G. (2005). High resolution simulations of the Last
Glacial Maximum climate over Europe: A solution to discrepancies
with continental paleoclimatic reconstructions? Climate Dynamics,
24, 577–590. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0009-4.
Kageyama, M., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Haywood, A. M.,
Jungclaus, J. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., et al. (2018). The PMIP4
contribution to CMIP6—Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan. Geoscientific Model Development, 11, 1033–1057.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018.
Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A., Levrard,
B. A. (2004). A long-term numerical solution for the insolation
quantities of the earth. 428. https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:
20041335.
Lorenz, E. (1963). Deterministic nonperiodic flow. Journal of the
Atmospheric Sciences, 20, 130–141.
Loutre, M.-F., & Berger, A. (2000). No Glacial-Interglacial cycle in the
ice volume simulated under a constant astronomical forcing and a
variable CO 2 . Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 783–786.
Manabe, S., & Broccoli, A. J. (1985). A comparison of climate model
Sensitivity with data from the Last Glacial Maximum. Journal of
the Atmospheric Sciences, 42, 2643–2651.
Peyron, O., et al. (1998). Climatic reconstruction in Europe for 18,000
YR B.P. from Pollen Data. Quaternary Research, 49, 183–196.
Rahmstorf, S. (1996). On the freshwater forcing and transport of the
Atlantic Thermohaline circulation. Climate Dynamics, 12, 799–811.
Rahmstorf, S., et al. (2005). Thermohaline circulation hysteresis: A
model intercomparison. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L23605.
Ramstein, G., et al. (2007). How cold was Europe at the Last Glacial
Maximum? A synthesis of the progress achieved since the first
PMIP model-data comparison. Climate of the Past, 3, 331–339.
Roche, D., & Paillard, D. (2005). Modelling the oxygen-18 and rapid
Glacial climatic events: A data–model comparison. Comptes
Rendus Geoscience, 337, 928–934.
Schneider von Deimling, T., et al. (2006). Climate sensitivity estimated
from ensemble simulations of Glacial Climate. Climate Dynamics,
27, 149–163.
Sellers, W. (1969). A global climatic model based on the energy
balance of the earth-atmosphere system. Journal of Applied
Meteorology, 8, 392–400.
Stein, U., & Alpert, P. (1993). Factor separation in numerical
simulations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 50, 2107–2115.
Sturm, C. et al. (2007). Simulation of the stable water isotopes in
precipitation over South America: Comparing regional to global
circulation models. Journal of Climate, 20, 3730–3750.
Stommel, H. (1961). Thermohaline convection with two stable regimes
of flow. Tellus, 13, 224–230.
Welander, P. (1982). A simple heat salt oscillator. Dynamics of
Atmosphere and Oceans, 6, 233–242.
Wu, H., et al. (2007). Climatic changes in Eurasia and Africa at the Last
Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene: Reconstruction from Pollen
Data using inverse Vegetation modelling. Climate Dynamics, 29,
211–229.
342
M. Kageyama and D. Paillard
climate indicators such as water isotopes (e.g., REMO-ISO,
Sturm et al. 2007).
The evolution of climate models in the near future will
involve not only an increasingly fine resolution as computing power increases and an explicit resolution of phenomena
previously parametrized or ignored, but also the construction
of increasingly comprehensive models of the climate system.
Not only will the physical and dynamic aspects of the climate system be addressed, but also the biogeochemical
cycles, in particular the carbon cycle. This trend is already
emerging and is important not only to understand the evolution of past climates but also to forecast the climates of the
future (see Chap. 31).
For Further Information
McGuffie, K., & Henderson-Sellers, A. (2005). A climate modelling
primer (3rd ed., 280 p). Wiley.
References
Berger, A., (1978). Long-term variations of daily insolation and
quaternary climatic changes. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,
35, 2362–2367.
Berger, A., et al. (1998). Sensitivity of the LLN Climate model to the
astronomical and CO 2 forcings over the last 200 Ky. Climate
Dynamics, 14, 615–629.
Braconnot, P., et al. (2007a). Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of
the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum—Part 1: Experiments and large-scale features. Climate of the Past, 3, 261–277.
Braconnot, P., et al. (2007b). Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of
the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum—Part 2: Feedbacks
with emphasis on the location of the ITCZ and mid- and high
latitudes heat budget. Climate of the Past, 3, 279–296.
Budyko, M. (1969). The effect of solar radiation variations on the
climate of the earth. Tellus, 21, 611–619.
Calov, R., et al. (2002). Large-scale instabilities of the Laurentide ice
sheet simulated in a fully coupled climate-system model. Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 2216.
Claussen, M., et al. (2002). Earth system models of Intermediate
complexity: Closing the gap in the spectrum of climate system
models. Climate Dynamics, 18, 579–586.
CLIMAP. (1976). The surface of the Ice-Age earth. Science, 191,
1138–1141.
CLIMAP. (1981). Seasonal reconstructions of the earth’s Surface at
the Last Glacial Maximum. Geological Society of America, Map
Chart Series MC-36, Boulder, Colorado.
Gates, W. L. (1976). Modeling the Ice-Age climate. Science, 191,
1138–1144.
Gallée, H., van Ypersele, J.-P., Fichefet, T., Marsiat, I., Tricot, C.,
Berger, A. (1992). Simulation of the Last Glacial cycle by a
coupled, sectorially averaged climate-ice sheet model. 2. Response
to insolation and CO2 variations. Journal of Geophysical Research,
971, 15713–15740. https://doi.org/10.1029/92JD01256.
Hargreaves, J. C., et al. (2007). Linking Glacial and future Climates
through an ensemble of GCM simulations. Climate of the Past, 3,
77–87.
IPCC. (2007). 4e rapport. http://www.ipcc.ch.
Jouzel, J., et al. (1993). Vostok ice cores: Extending the climatic
records over the penultimate Glacial Period. Nature, 364, 407–412.
Joussaume, S. & Taylor, K. E. (1995). Status of the paleoclimate
modeling intercomparison project (PMIP). In Proceedings of the
First International AMIP Scientific Conference. WCRP Report,
(pp. 425–430).
Jost, A., Lunt, D., Kageyama, M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Peyron, O., Valdes,
P. J., Ramstein, G. (2005). High resolution simulations of the Last
Glacial Maximum climate over Europe: A solution to discrepancies
with continental paleoclimatic reconstructions? Climate Dynamics,
24, 577–590. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0009-4.
Kageyama, M., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Haywood, A. M.,
Jungclaus, J. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., et al. (2018). The PMIP4
contribution to CMIP6—Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan. Geoscientific Model Development, 11, 1033–1057.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018.
Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A., Levrard,
B. A. (2004). A long-term numerical solution for the insolation
quantities of the earth. 428. https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:
20041335.
Lorenz, E. (1963). Deterministic nonperiodic flow. Journal of the
Atmospheric Sciences, 20, 130–141.
Loutre, M.-F., & Berger, A. (2000). No Glacial-Interglacial cycle in the
ice volume simulated under a constant astronomical forcing and a
variable CO 2 . Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 783–786.
Manabe, S., & Broccoli, A. J. (1985). A comparison of climate model
Sensitivity with data from the Last Glacial Maximum. Journal of
the Atmospheric Sciences, 42, 2643–2651.
Peyron, O., et al. (1998). Climatic reconstruction in Europe for 18,000
YR B.P. from Pollen Data. Quaternary Research, 49, 183–196.
Rahmstorf, S. (1996). On the freshwater forcing and transport of the
Atlantic Thermohaline circulation. Climate Dynamics, 12, 799–811.
Rahmstorf, S., et al. (2005). Thermohaline circulation hysteresis: A
model intercomparison. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L23605.
Ramstein, G., et al. (2007). How cold was Europe at the Last Glacial
Maximum? A synthesis of the progress achieved since the first
PMIP model-data comparison. Climate of the Past, 3, 331–339.
Roche, D., & Paillard, D. (2005). Modelling the oxygen-18 and rapid
Glacial climatic events: A data–model comparison. Comptes
Rendus Geoscience, 337, 928–934.
Schneider von Deimling, T., et al. (2006). Climate sensitivity estimated
from ensemble simulations of Glacial Climate. Climate Dynamics,
27, 149–163.
Sellers, W. (1969). A global climatic model based on the energy
balance of the earth-atmosphere system. Journal of Applied
Meteorology, 8, 392–400.
Stein, U., & Alpert, P. (1993). Factor separation in numerical
simulations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 50, 2107–2115.
Sturm, C. et al. (2007). Simulation of the stable water isotopes in
precipitation over South America: Comparing regional to global
circulation models. Journal of Climate, 20, 3730–3750.
Stommel, H. (1961). Thermohaline convection with two stable regimes
of flow. Tellus, 13, 224–230.
Welander, P. (1982). A simple heat salt oscillator. Dynamics of
Atmosphere and Oceans, 6, 233–242.
Wu, H., et al. (2007). Climatic changes in Eurasia and Africa at the Last
Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene: Reconstruction from Pollen
Data using inverse Vegetation modelling. Climate Dynamics, 29,
211–229.
342
M. Kageyama and D. Paillard