Limitations of These Reconstructions:
The Anthropic Effects
The decision to harvest is based on a simple principle: the
grapes need to be harvested when they are ripe and not too
long afterwards so as to avoid exposure to unfavorable
weather conditions, such as hail or heavy rain. Judgment of
the ideal state of ripeness may have evolved over time
depending on the political and economic context, cultivation
techniques, oenological practices and consumer tastes.
Variations over time in these parameters can create trends
and cause breaks in the data series. These variations caused
by factors not related to the climate may not necessarily be
detectable in a single series. To be as rigorous as possible, a
climate reconstruction must be based on a collection of
series (ideally of the same variety, from the same wine
region), which is tested for disruptions and
inter-correlations. Historical information of this type can
provide insights and help to identify the proportion of
variability attributable to anthropic effects.
References
Chuine, I., Yiou, P., Viovy, N., Seguin, B., Daux, V., & Le Roy
Ladurie, E. (2004). Grape ripening as a past climate indicator.
Nature, 432, 289–290.
Cook, B. I., & Wolkovich, E. M. (2016). Climate change decouples
drought from early wine grape harvests in France. Nature Climate
Change, 6, 715–719.
Daux, V., Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, I., Yiou, P., Chuine, I., Garnier,
E., Le Roy Ladurie, E., et al. (2012). An open-access database of
grape harvest dates for climate research: data description and quality
assessment. Clim. Past, 8, 1403–1418.
Daux, V., Yiou, P., Le Roy Ladurie, E., Mestre, O., Chevet, J.-M., &
the OPHELIE team. (2007). Température et dates de vendanges en
France’, Articles du colloque ‘Changement climatique, quels
impacts probables sur le vignoble?’, Dijon, 28–29 mars 2007, 10p.
Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, I., Daux, V., Garnier, E., Yiou, P., Viovy,
N., Seguin, B., et al. (2010). An assessment of error sources when
using grape harvest date for past climate reconstruction. Holocene,
20, 599–608.
Le Roy Ladurie, E., Daux, V., & Luterbacher, J. (2006). Le climat de
Bourgogne et d’ailleurs. Histoire, Economie et Sociétés, 3, 421–
436.
208
V. Daux
The Anthropic Effects
The decision to harvest is based on a simple principle: the
grapes need to be harvested when they are ripe and not too
long afterwards so as to avoid exposure to unfavorable
weather conditions, such as hail or heavy rain. Judgment of
the ideal state of ripeness may have evolved over time
depending on the political and economic context, cultivation
techniques, oenological practices and consumer tastes.
Variations over time in these parameters can create trends
and cause breaks in the data series. These variations caused
by factors not related to the climate may not necessarily be
detectable in a single series. To be as rigorous as possible, a
climate reconstruction must be based on a collection of
series (ideally of the same variety, from the same wine
region), which is tested for disruptions and
inter-correlations. Historical information of this type can
provide insights and help to identify the proportion of
variability attributable to anthropic effects.
References
Chuine, I., Yiou, P., Viovy, N., Seguin, B., Daux, V., & Le Roy
Ladurie, E. (2004). Grape ripening as a past climate indicator.
Nature, 432, 289–290.
Cook, B. I., & Wolkovich, E. M. (2016). Climate change decouples
drought from early wine grape harvests in France. Nature Climate
Change, 6, 715–719.
Daux, V., Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, I., Yiou, P., Chuine, I., Garnier,
E., Le Roy Ladurie, E., et al. (2012). An open-access database of
grape harvest dates for climate research: data description and quality
assessment. Clim. Past, 8, 1403–1418.
Daux, V., Yiou, P., Le Roy Ladurie, E., Mestre, O., Chevet, J.-M., &
the OPHELIE team. (2007). Température et dates de vendanges en
France’, Articles du colloque ‘Changement climatique, quels
impacts probables sur le vignoble?’, Dijon, 28–29 mars 2007, 10p.
Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, I., Daux, V., Garnier, E., Yiou, P., Viovy,
N., Seguin, B., et al. (2010). An assessment of error sources when
using grape harvest date for past climate reconstruction. Holocene,
20, 599–608.
Le Roy Ladurie, E., Daux, V., & Luterbacher, J. (2006). Le climat de
Bourgogne et d’ailleurs. Histoire, Economie et Sociétés, 3, 421–
436.
208
V. Daux