8.1 Short-Term Impact
75
expenses until they can reopen or receive assistance from the government. However,
the short-term economic effects should be fairly limited, if only due to the short
period of time that this phase is expected to last.
Estimating evacuation-related fatalities
According to information collected by the US Department of Transportation
[1] Americans face a fatality rate of about 1.13 deaths for every 100 million
miles (160 million km) driven. Keeping this in mind, consider the impact of
evacuating New York City in the aftermath of a nuclear reactor accident or a
terrorist attack against New York City.
If we assume the entire population of New York City (about 8.5 million
people) evacuate a distance of 100 miles with an average of three people per
vehicle we can expect 2–3 fatalities to occur while evacuating and the same
number when returning home.
This quick calculation is based on normal drivers, normal weather, and
driving under normal circumstances. If the weather is bad, the drivers are
angry, rushed, or panicked, and/or the roads are jammed with traffic the actual
number of fatalities is likely to be higher.
8.1.3 Psycho-Social
In spite of exciting optimism and enthusiasm when first discovered, radiation and
radioactivity were known to cause deterministic health effects within a few years of
their discovery and the tragic fate of the “radium girls” (young women who ingested
radium while “pointing” brushes to paint the dials of self-luminous watches and
instruments) brought many of these health effects to the attention of the general public
in the 1920s. With the use and later testing of nuclear weapons in the 1940s, 1950s,
and 1960s the public began to associate radiation with nuclear testing; this, combined
with increasing environmental awareness and an almost-total lack of knowledge
about radiation on the part of the public helped to fuel increasing fears that morphed,
in some cases, into outright phobia [2]. Fear of radiation can cause the public to
respond inappropriately to radiological and nuclear events. After the Three Mile
Island accident, for example, approximately 144,000 residents voluntarily evacuated
the area in spite of the fact that the evacuation order only recommended that pregnant
and nursing women leave the area [3]. While this did not lead to any noticeable
increase in traffic fatalities, this was not the case in aftermath of the Fukushima
accident in which, of over 130,000 evacuees, over 1600 died [4].
The short-term psycho-social effects do not stop when evacuees reach their destination; they will need to live somewhere until they can return home and they can face
social stigmatization owing to the radiophobia of their new neighbors. The author
75
expenses until they can reopen or receive assistance from the government. However,
the short-term economic effects should be fairly limited, if only due to the short
period of time that this phase is expected to last.
Estimating evacuation-related fatalities
According to information collected by the US Department of Transportation
[1] Americans face a fatality rate of about 1.13 deaths for every 100 million
miles (160 million km) driven. Keeping this in mind, consider the impact of
evacuating New York City in the aftermath of a nuclear reactor accident or a
terrorist attack against New York City.
If we assume the entire population of New York City (about 8.5 million
people) evacuate a distance of 100 miles with an average of three people per
vehicle we can expect 2–3 fatalities to occur while evacuating and the same
number when returning home.
This quick calculation is based on normal drivers, normal weather, and
driving under normal circumstances. If the weather is bad, the drivers are
angry, rushed, or panicked, and/or the roads are jammed with traffic the actual
number of fatalities is likely to be higher.
8.1.3 Psycho-Social
In spite of exciting optimism and enthusiasm when first discovered, radiation and
radioactivity were known to cause deterministic health effects within a few years of
their discovery and the tragic fate of the “radium girls” (young women who ingested
radium while “pointing” brushes to paint the dials of self-luminous watches and
instruments) brought many of these health effects to the attention of the general public
in the 1920s. With the use and later testing of nuclear weapons in the 1940s, 1950s,
and 1960s the public began to associate radiation with nuclear testing; this, combined
with increasing environmental awareness and an almost-total lack of knowledge
about radiation on the part of the public helped to fuel increasing fears that morphed,
in some cases, into outright phobia [2]. Fear of radiation can cause the public to
respond inappropriately to radiological and nuclear events. After the Three Mile
Island accident, for example, approximately 144,000 residents voluntarily evacuated
the area in spite of the fact that the evacuation order only recommended that pregnant
and nursing women leave the area [3]. While this did not lead to any noticeable
increase in traffic fatalities, this was not the case in aftermath of the Fukushima
accident in which, of over 130,000 evacuees, over 1600 died [4].
The short-term psycho-social effects do not stop when evacuees reach their destination; they will need to live somewhere until they can return home and they can face
social stigmatization owing to the radiophobia of their new neighbors. The author