244
19 Additional Considerations When Responding to a Nuclear Attack
exposure will be only about 1.5 Sv, causing mild radiation sickness but no more. The
optimum time to evacuate—the time that will produce the lowest total dose—will
vary from place to place but, in general, the dose curve flattens out considerably after
about three or four hours so the difference in total dose from evacuating at, say, 12 or
24 h is not substantially different than the dose from evacuating after 4 or 6 h. This
assumes that a safe and quick evacuation route has been identified.
Another factor to consider is the overall safety of those being evacuated. We have
already discussed the hazards from unstable buildings, falling glass, ruptured utilities,
and so forth; to these we must add the potential for civic unrest as a panicked populace
and/or opportunistic criminals take to the streets. The goal should be to reduce, not
just the radiation dose, but, rather, the total risk to which the affected members of
the public are exposed. In some circumstances it might be reasonable to wait for an
evacuation route to be secured, even if it takes extra hours for the route to be secured.
It must also be recognized that evacuation is not necessarily a benign process.
Over 2200 people died during the evacuations following the Fukushima accident,
most of whom would have survived had they remained in place [5]. This is not a
criticism of the decision to evacuate—the government of Japan followed existing
guidelines and established best practices when the evacuation was ordered. It is only
in retrospect, knowing the amount of radioactivity that was ultimately released and
the resulting contamination levels, that this became known. But the fact remains that
evacuations can cost lives.
References
1. Bruddemeier B, Dillon M (2009) Key response planning factors for the aftermath of nuclear
terrorism, LLNL-TR-410067. LLNL
2. Dillon M (2014) Determining optimal fallout shelter times following a nuclear detonation. Proc.
Royal Soc A 470:20130693. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2013.0693. Accessed 24 Nov 2020
3. Dupont D (2004) Nuclear explosions in orbit. Sci Am 290(6):100–107
4. Glasstone S, Dolan P (1977) The effects of nuclear weapons, 3rd edn. Government Printing
Office, Washington DC
5. Harding R (2018) Fukushima nuclear disaster: did the evacuation raise the death toll? Financial Times March 10. https://www.ft.com/content/000f864e-22ba-11e8-add1-0e8958b189ea.
Accessed 24 Nov 2020
6. International Atomic Energy Agency (2003) Method for developing arrangements for response
to a nuclear or radiological emergency. IAEA, Vienna
7. Rigby S, Lodge T, Alotaibi S, Barr A, Clarke S, Langdon G, Tyas A (2020) Preliminary yield
estimation of the 2020 Beirut explosion using video footage from social media. Shock Waves
30:671–675
8. US Department of Homeland Security (2016) Quick reference guide: radiation risk information
for responders following a nuclear detonation. US DHS, Washington DC
19 Additional Considerations When Responding to a Nuclear Attack
exposure will be only about 1.5 Sv, causing mild radiation sickness but no more. The
optimum time to evacuate—the time that will produce the lowest total dose—will
vary from place to place but, in general, the dose curve flattens out considerably after
about three or four hours so the difference in total dose from evacuating at, say, 12 or
24 h is not substantially different than the dose from evacuating after 4 or 6 h. This
assumes that a safe and quick evacuation route has been identified.
Another factor to consider is the overall safety of those being evacuated. We have
already discussed the hazards from unstable buildings, falling glass, ruptured utilities,
and so forth; to these we must add the potential for civic unrest as a panicked populace
and/or opportunistic criminals take to the streets. The goal should be to reduce, not
just the radiation dose, but, rather, the total risk to which the affected members of
the public are exposed. In some circumstances it might be reasonable to wait for an
evacuation route to be secured, even if it takes extra hours for the route to be secured.
It must also be recognized that evacuation is not necessarily a benign process.
Over 2200 people died during the evacuations following the Fukushima accident,
most of whom would have survived had they remained in place [5]. This is not a
criticism of the decision to evacuate—the government of Japan followed existing
guidelines and established best practices when the evacuation was ordered. It is only
in retrospect, knowing the amount of radioactivity that was ultimately released and
the resulting contamination levels, that this became known. But the fact remains that
evacuations can cost lives.
References
1. Bruddemeier B, Dillon M (2009) Key response planning factors for the aftermath of nuclear
terrorism, LLNL-TR-410067. LLNL
2. Dillon M (2014) Determining optimal fallout shelter times following a nuclear detonation. Proc.
Royal Soc A 470:20130693. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2013.0693. Accessed 24 Nov 2020
3. Dupont D (2004) Nuclear explosions in orbit. Sci Am 290(6):100–107
4. Glasstone S, Dolan P (1977) The effects of nuclear weapons, 3rd edn. Government Printing
Office, Washington DC
5. Harding R (2018) Fukushima nuclear disaster: did the evacuation raise the death toll? Financial Times March 10. https://www.ft.com/content/000f864e-22ba-11e8-add1-0e8958b189ea.
Accessed 24 Nov 2020
6. International Atomic Energy Agency (2003) Method for developing arrangements for response
to a nuclear or radiological emergency. IAEA, Vienna
7. Rigby S, Lodge T, Alotaibi S, Barr A, Clarke S, Langdon G, Tyas A (2020) Preliminary yield
estimation of the 2020 Beirut explosion using video footage from social media. Shock Waves
30:671–675
8. US Department of Homeland Security (2016) Quick reference guide: radiation risk information
for responders following a nuclear detonation. US DHS, Washington DC