19.2 Radioactive Fallout
235
city such as New York the fallout plume could affect the health of hundreds of
thousands of people with more than a quarter million receiving a potentially fatal
radiation dose if they fail to seek shelter following the explosion. There are some
considerations that flow from these observations [8].
The first consideration is that hundreds of thousands of lives can be saved if the
population understands how to respond between the moment of detonation and about
fifteen minutes later when the faullout begins coming down.
• Those who remain outdoors or who seek shelter in a car will likely receive a fatal
dose of radiation;
• Those who attempt to flee before knowing where the fallout is being blown are
likely to receive a fatal dose of radiation if they are in the fallout plume and do
not evacuate in the correct direction;
• Those who seek shelter in a small frame building or close to the outer walls or on
the top-most floor will likely receive enough radiation exposure to require medical
treatment in order to survive;
• Those who seek shelter in the basement or lower floors of a large building might
not even develop radiation sickness.
It is worth noting that the most important decision to be made in the moments
after detonation is whether to shelter or flee; this decision will likely be made before
the first public service announcement can be broadcast to the public. The population,
then, must understand that sheltering is more likely to save their lives than fleeing, and
they must know this before an attack takes place. Similarly, parents must understand
that they cannot go to bring their children home from school—that they must trust the
schools to shelter their children appropriately. Parents who travel to the school to bring
their children home—if they are in the fallout plume—will likely be exposed to a fatal
radiation dose, as will their children. And both emergency and medical responders
must understand that attempting to respond and to help the public immediately might
expose them to a fatal dose of radiation. Although the plume will cover only a small
fraction of the total area of the city, until its location is known nobody in the city
should be outdoors.
This means that every person in the city, including emergency responders, medical
caregivers, and elected and appointed officials must know that, until the “footprint”
of the plume is known, the only safe course of action is to seek shelter immediately.
Once the plume outline is known it will be possible to begin planning evacuations
for those within the plume, emergency and medical responders who are outside the
plume can begin responding to the attack, and both elected and appointed officials
can begin marshalling personnel and beginning to plan their response.
The second consideration stems from the size of the fallout plume, which can be
several kilometers across and tens of kilometers in length, with dangerously high
radiation dose rates extending as far as fifteen kilometers downwind in the event of
a surface burst. This is a large area that will be dangerous for as long as one or two
days after the time of the attack; the size of the dangerously radioactive area will be
far larger than virtually any man-made disaster and will more closely resemble the
size of areas affected by natural disasters [1].
235
city such as New York the fallout plume could affect the health of hundreds of
thousands of people with more than a quarter million receiving a potentially fatal
radiation dose if they fail to seek shelter following the explosion. There are some
considerations that flow from these observations [8].
The first consideration is that hundreds of thousands of lives can be saved if the
population understands how to respond between the moment of detonation and about
fifteen minutes later when the faullout begins coming down.
• Those who remain outdoors or who seek shelter in a car will likely receive a fatal
dose of radiation;
• Those who attempt to flee before knowing where the fallout is being blown are
likely to receive a fatal dose of radiation if they are in the fallout plume and do
not evacuate in the correct direction;
• Those who seek shelter in a small frame building or close to the outer walls or on
the top-most floor will likely receive enough radiation exposure to require medical
treatment in order to survive;
• Those who seek shelter in the basement or lower floors of a large building might
not even develop radiation sickness.
It is worth noting that the most important decision to be made in the moments
after detonation is whether to shelter or flee; this decision will likely be made before
the first public service announcement can be broadcast to the public. The population,
then, must understand that sheltering is more likely to save their lives than fleeing, and
they must know this before an attack takes place. Similarly, parents must understand
that they cannot go to bring their children home from school—that they must trust the
schools to shelter their children appropriately. Parents who travel to the school to bring
their children home—if they are in the fallout plume—will likely be exposed to a fatal
radiation dose, as will their children. And both emergency and medical responders
must understand that attempting to respond and to help the public immediately might
expose them to a fatal dose of radiation. Although the plume will cover only a small
fraction of the total area of the city, until its location is known nobody in the city
should be outdoors.
This means that every person in the city, including emergency responders, medical
caregivers, and elected and appointed officials must know that, until the “footprint”
of the plume is known, the only safe course of action is to seek shelter immediately.
Once the plume outline is known it will be possible to begin planning evacuations
for those within the plume, emergency and medical responders who are outside the
plume can begin responding to the attack, and both elected and appointed officials
can begin marshalling personnel and beginning to plan their response.
The second consideration stems from the size of the fallout plume, which can be
several kilometers across and tens of kilometers in length, with dangerously high
radiation dose rates extending as far as fifteen kilometers downwind in the event of
a surface burst. This is a large area that will be dangerous for as long as one or two
days after the time of the attack; the size of the dangerously radioactive area will be
far larger than virtually any man-made disaster and will more closely resemble the
size of areas affected by natural disasters [1].