576
K. Takeda et al.
other hand, the dependence on fossil fuel energy, which has risen since the shutdown
of nuclear power plants, is expected to increase. The proportion of thermal power
generation, which was 65% in 2010, will be 83% in 2016 (AERE 2015; Ishii 2008).
Japanese oil import is hugely dependent from the Middle East where geopolitical
risks are high due to instability in the region. Also, Japanese domestic demand and
demand from neighboring countries, South East Asian countries, are rising. Japan is
one of the important destinations for Russia which has close geographical distance.
Therefore, it is possible to obtain the suggestion of the stable gas import for Japan by
the case analysis of the past gas import from Russia where import volume of Japan
is expected to increase in the future. Therefore, in order for Japan to take lower risk
policy decisions in the natural gas import business from Russia, we will clarify causal
factors and the factors that have been influenced by past case analysis of Russian
natural gas exports.
In this study, we conducted case studies on the Yamal LNG Project and the
Sakhalin 2 Project. The Yamal LNG Project is a gas development project on the
Yamal peninsula in the northern part of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Region on
the Russian West Siberian Arctic coast, and its interest is broken down as of 2018
by Novatek, Russia’s private natural gas, and hydrocarbon integrated company. 50.1,
20% of total French-based international oil capital, 20% of CNPC (China National
Petroleum Corporation), and 9.9% of the Chinese government’s Silk Road Foundation. The estimated reserves are 698 BCM (billion cubic meters) of natural gas and
120 million BBL (barrel) of condensate, and exports by three LNG baselines with a
capacity of 5.5 million tons are planned.
The Sakhalin 2 Project is an oil and natural gas development project in the PiltunAstokhskoye Block and the Lansky Block on the east coast of Sakhalin Island in
the Far East of Russia. And the share of the interests of Sakhalin Energy Co., Ltd.
Gazprom, the largest integrated natural gas company, has 50% + 1 share, Royal Dutch
Shell of international oil capital has 27.5% − 1 share, Mitsui & Co. has 12.5%, and
Mitsubishi Corporation has a 10% stake. The estimated reserves are about 750 billion
BBL for crude oil and about 500 BCM for natural gas.
Common points in these two projects include the fact that Japan supports export
in the form of LNG currently established as a natural gas import system, and that
Japanese companies are participating in the plant construction process of each project,
etc. As of 2017, Japan imported at least 7.27 million tons of LNG, 8.7% of the
total, from the Yamal LNG Project with a long-term contract. The diversification of
suppliers and the development of the Arctic Ocean route are expected to increase
imports of the Yamal LNG Project and gas from the region. As for research questions,
we will focus on two points: the turning point of Russia’s natural gas export strategy
and the pros and cons of possessing Japanese interests in terms of energy security in
development projects in Russia.
K. Takeda et al.
other hand, the dependence on fossil fuel energy, which has risen since the shutdown
of nuclear power plants, is expected to increase. The proportion of thermal power
generation, which was 65% in 2010, will be 83% in 2016 (AERE 2015; Ishii 2008).
Japanese oil import is hugely dependent from the Middle East where geopolitical
risks are high due to instability in the region. Also, Japanese domestic demand and
demand from neighboring countries, South East Asian countries, are rising. Japan is
one of the important destinations for Russia which has close geographical distance.
Therefore, it is possible to obtain the suggestion of the stable gas import for Japan by
the case analysis of the past gas import from Russia where import volume of Japan
is expected to increase in the future. Therefore, in order for Japan to take lower risk
policy decisions in the natural gas import business from Russia, we will clarify causal
factors and the factors that have been influenced by past case analysis of Russian
natural gas exports.
In this study, we conducted case studies on the Yamal LNG Project and the
Sakhalin 2 Project. The Yamal LNG Project is a gas development project on the
Yamal peninsula in the northern part of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Region on
the Russian West Siberian Arctic coast, and its interest is broken down as of 2018
by Novatek, Russia’s private natural gas, and hydrocarbon integrated company. 50.1,
20% of total French-based international oil capital, 20% of CNPC (China National
Petroleum Corporation), and 9.9% of the Chinese government’s Silk Road Foundation. The estimated reserves are 698 BCM (billion cubic meters) of natural gas and
120 million BBL (barrel) of condensate, and exports by three LNG baselines with a
capacity of 5.5 million tons are planned.
The Sakhalin 2 Project is an oil and natural gas development project in the PiltunAstokhskoye Block and the Lansky Block on the east coast of Sakhalin Island in
the Far East of Russia. And the share of the interests of Sakhalin Energy Co., Ltd.
Gazprom, the largest integrated natural gas company, has 50% + 1 share, Royal Dutch
Shell of international oil capital has 27.5% − 1 share, Mitsui & Co. has 12.5%, and
Mitsubishi Corporation has a 10% stake. The estimated reserves are about 750 billion
BBL for crude oil and about 500 BCM for natural gas.
Common points in these two projects include the fact that Japan supports export
in the form of LNG currently established as a natural gas import system, and that
Japanese companies are participating in the plant construction process of each project,
etc. As of 2017, Japan imported at least 7.27 million tons of LNG, 8.7% of the
total, from the Yamal LNG Project with a long-term contract. The diversification of
suppliers and the development of the Arctic Ocean route are expected to increase
imports of the Yamal LNG Project and gas from the region. As for research questions,
we will focus on two points: the turning point of Russia’s natural gas export strategy
and the pros and cons of possessing Japanese interests in terms of energy security in
development projects in Russia.