14 Forecast of Future Impacts of Using ICT …
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14.4.3 Future Issues
As mentioned in 14.4.1, since additional electric consumption caused by introducing
new ICT equipment providing these ICT services is not considered in the estimation
in this step, future works should include the additional electric consumption in their
estimations to grasp impacts of ICT use more comprehensively. Moreover, as this
paper aimed to show the potential for GHG emissions reduction effects by ICT use,
penetration rates and direct effects expected by ICT services, especially in Group
2, are based on bold assumptions. That means that the results are useful to help
us to understand a phenomenon and what “could be”, but not absolutely correct
answers. In that sense, refinement and sensitivity analysis on penetration rates and
direct effects should also be conducted in future works. Furthermore, the model used
in this paper does not include the spread of ICT services based on retrofitting. For
example, installation of internet service machines to existing convenience stores is
not considered in the model, though that may be a common way to introduce ICT
services. Only newly established convenience stores installed with internet service
machines are considered here. That means the speed of ICT’s spread in the model
may be slower than that in the real world, and this also should be considered in
future works. Lastly, along with the advances made in ICT, various technologies in
other sectors will also progress quickly. This paper focused on the impacts by ICT
acceleration, but the model may not sufficiently capture actions taken in response to
the progress of other technologies. More comprehensive analysis across more sectors
should be conducted in future works.
14.5 Conclusion
This paper presented two scenarios (baseline scenario and ICT accelerated scenario)
for future information communications technology (ICT) use that are based on several
statistical reports, forecast reports, and assumptions by the authors. A dynamic
computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was developed to forecast the environmental and economic impacts, including spillover effects, caused by future ICT
use. The results show that by 2030 in Japan, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are
34 Mt-CO 2 eq lower and GDP increase ¥33 trillion higher in the ICT accelerated
scenario than in the baseline scenario. That indicates future ICT use can contribute
to both GHG emissions reduction and economic growth in the future. However, since
rebound effects caused by ICT use are also seen in some sectors, to realize a more
decarbonized and sustainable society in the future, it is important to continue the
discussion on how to use ICT more efficiently.
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14.4.3 Future Issues
As mentioned in 14.4.1, since additional electric consumption caused by introducing
new ICT equipment providing these ICT services is not considered in the estimation
in this step, future works should include the additional electric consumption in their
estimations to grasp impacts of ICT use more comprehensively. Moreover, as this
paper aimed to show the potential for GHG emissions reduction effects by ICT use,
penetration rates and direct effects expected by ICT services, especially in Group
2, are based on bold assumptions. That means that the results are useful to help
us to understand a phenomenon and what “could be”, but not absolutely correct
answers. In that sense, refinement and sensitivity analysis on penetration rates and
direct effects should also be conducted in future works. Furthermore, the model used
in this paper does not include the spread of ICT services based on retrofitting. For
example, installation of internet service machines to existing convenience stores is
not considered in the model, though that may be a common way to introduce ICT
services. Only newly established convenience stores installed with internet service
machines are considered here. That means the speed of ICT’s spread in the model
may be slower than that in the real world, and this also should be considered in
future works. Lastly, along with the advances made in ICT, various technologies in
other sectors will also progress quickly. This paper focused on the impacts by ICT
acceleration, but the model may not sufficiently capture actions taken in response to
the progress of other technologies. More comprehensive analysis across more sectors
should be conducted in future works.
14.5 Conclusion
This paper presented two scenarios (baseline scenario and ICT accelerated scenario)
for future information communications technology (ICT) use that are based on several
statistical reports, forecast reports, and assumptions by the authors. A dynamic
computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was developed to forecast the environmental and economic impacts, including spillover effects, caused by future ICT
use. The results show that by 2030 in Japan, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are
34 Mt-CO 2 eq lower and GDP increase ¥33 trillion higher in the ICT accelerated
scenario than in the baseline scenario. That indicates future ICT use can contribute
to both GHG emissions reduction and economic growth in the future. However, since
rebound effects caused by ICT use are also seen in some sectors, to realize a more
decarbonized and sustainable society in the future, it is important to continue the
discussion on how to use ICT more efficiently.