14 Forecast of Future Impacts of Using ICT …
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services will be realized. However, the retrofitting of ICT services to existing capital
is not included. New capital to provide ICT services will be introduced year by year.
Expansion on the share of new capital to provide ICT services expresses the spread
of ICT services.
14.3 Target ICT Services and Future ICT Scenarios
14.3.1 Evaluation Target ICT Services
In this paper, two groups of ICT services in six industry categories are regarded as the
evaluation targets. The first group includes ICT services that are already in common
use, such as teleworking and online shopping. The penetration rates of this ICT
service group are already relatively high according to some statistical data in Japan
(Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications JAPAN 2005). Table 14.2 lists
this ICT service group on which we focused in regular font formatting. The second
ICT service group includes several new ICT services, such as AI and IoT in some
industries, as shown in bold font formatting in Table 14.2. Even though, now, the
present spread of these ICT services is not as high as for the first group of ICT services,
they have already started to be used in some industries, like manufacturing and
distribution and services, and the effects on GHG emissions reduction are expected
to be great in the near future.
14.3.2 Direct Effects Expected by ICT Use
For Group 1, direct effects on GHG emissions reduction caused by ICT use are
set the same as those in existing study (Origuchi et al. 2017) and are also listed
in Table 14.2. For Group 2, direct effects expected by these ICTs use are surveyed
by some forecast reports for future ICT and some use cases that have already been
introduced in manufacturing factories or banking (Information and communications
in Japan WHITE PAPER 2018). The values of the direct effects are estimated by the
total amount of the evaluated activity and the amount reduced by ICT use, and will
be fed back to the intermediate input coefficient of the dynamic CGE model.
14.3.3 Future ICT Scenarios
Two scenarios until 2030 are presented to evaluate the impacts by using ICT
services: baseline scenario and ICT accelerated scenario. For both scenarios, input
data between 2005 and 2015 set the same and are based on statistical data. From
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services will be realized. However, the retrofitting of ICT services to existing capital
is not included. New capital to provide ICT services will be introduced year by year.
Expansion on the share of new capital to provide ICT services expresses the spread
of ICT services.
14.3 Target ICT Services and Future ICT Scenarios
14.3.1 Evaluation Target ICT Services
In this paper, two groups of ICT services in six industry categories are regarded as the
evaluation targets. The first group includes ICT services that are already in common
use, such as teleworking and online shopping. The penetration rates of this ICT
service group are already relatively high according to some statistical data in Japan
(Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications JAPAN 2005). Table 14.2 lists
this ICT service group on which we focused in regular font formatting. The second
ICT service group includes several new ICT services, such as AI and IoT in some
industries, as shown in bold font formatting in Table 14.2. Even though, now, the
present spread of these ICT services is not as high as for the first group of ICT services,
they have already started to be used in some industries, like manufacturing and
distribution and services, and the effects on GHG emissions reduction are expected
to be great in the near future.
14.3.2 Direct Effects Expected by ICT Use
For Group 1, direct effects on GHG emissions reduction caused by ICT use are
set the same as those in existing study (Origuchi et al. 2017) and are also listed
in Table 14.2. For Group 2, direct effects expected by these ICTs use are surveyed
by some forecast reports for future ICT and some use cases that have already been
introduced in manufacturing factories or banking (Information and communications
in Japan WHITE PAPER 2018). The values of the direct effects are estimated by the
total amount of the evaluated activity and the amount reduced by ICT use, and will
be fed back to the intermediate input coefficient of the dynamic CGE model.
14.3.3 Future ICT Scenarios
Two scenarios until 2030 are presented to evaluate the impacts by using ICT
services: baseline scenario and ICT accelerated scenario. For both scenarios, input
data between 2005 and 2015 set the same and are based on statistical data. From