208
X. Zhang et al.
the government in its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions is to reduce
GHG emissions by 26% compared with the 2013 level by 2030 (Submission of
Japan’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) 2015). All sectors
are required to make efforts to reduce GHG emissions. For the information and
communication technology (ICT) sector, communication traffic through the internet
has increased several score times over the past 10 years with the spread of the internet,
smartphones, and various ICTs services (Information and communications in Japan
WHITE PAPER 2017). Although ICT use causes environmental load in its own sector
(e.g., electricity consumption of ICT equipment), ICT can potentially contribute to
environmental load reduction in other sectors through increased productivity in many
industries, reduction in transportation use, dematerialization of paper and recorded
media, and so on (L.1410 2012).
Several researchers have already focused on environmental load reduction effects
of ICT use. For example, the Japan Forum on Eco-Efficiency published its Guideline
for Information and Communication Technology Eco-Efficiency Evaluation based
on life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology in 2006 (The Guideline for Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Eco-Efficiency Estimation 2006).
Subsequently, Nagao developed models to estimate the CO 2 emissions reduction
effects by ICT use for individual target ICT services. The models calculated CO 2
emissions reduction by multiplying the ICT service penetration rate, scale of the
evaluated activity, CO 2 emission reduction rate by using the ICT service, and CO 2
emissions factor for each ICT service, and sum the individual reductions of all 23
target ICT services (Nagao et al. 2015). Then Origuchi improved the previous study
by including the consideration of economic equilibriums among sectors, rather than
simply summing the individual effect of each service, by applying a static computable
general equilibrium (CGE), and assessed CO 2 emissions reduction effects by ICT
use throughout Japan in 2013 compared with 2005 (Origuchi et al. 2017). The
Global e-Sustainability Initiative published a report estimating the environmental
and economic impacts of ICT in 2030 at the global level. The report shows that
ICT’s own footprint is expected to reach 1250 Mt-CO 2 eq in 2030, corresponding to
1.97% of global emissions, while ICT use could enable the world to cut its global
emissions by 12,000 Mt-CO 2 eq, corresponding to 9.7 times ICT’s own CO 2 eq emissions. Also, ICT could generate over US$11 trillion in economic benefits per year
by 2030 (Global e-Sustainability Initiative and Accenture Strategy 2015).
Needless to say that penetration rates have grown very fast for some ICT services,
e.g., online shopping and online banking. Also, more and more new ICT services,
such as artificial intelligence (AI) technology, Internet of things (IoT), smart agriculture, and smart medical technology, are being introduced in many industries and our
lives gradually. However, few studies have focused on the GHG emission reduction
effects of future ICT use. In this paper, a dynamic CGE model is developed to forecast the environmental impacts on GHG emissions reduction by ICT use for future
periods. Two scenarios relative to ICT use in Japan until 2030 are assumed based on
several forecast reports, and the potential GHG direct emissions reductions effects
and economic growth effects caused by these ICT uses are estimated on the basis of
the dynamic CGE model.
X. Zhang et al.
the government in its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions is to reduce
GHG emissions by 26% compared with the 2013 level by 2030 (Submission of
Japan’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) 2015). All sectors
are required to make efforts to reduce GHG emissions. For the information and
communication technology (ICT) sector, communication traffic through the internet
has increased several score times over the past 10 years with the spread of the internet,
smartphones, and various ICTs services (Information and communications in Japan
WHITE PAPER 2017). Although ICT use causes environmental load in its own sector
(e.g., electricity consumption of ICT equipment), ICT can potentially contribute to
environmental load reduction in other sectors through increased productivity in many
industries, reduction in transportation use, dematerialization of paper and recorded
media, and so on (L.1410 2012).
Several researchers have already focused on environmental load reduction effects
of ICT use. For example, the Japan Forum on Eco-Efficiency published its Guideline
for Information and Communication Technology Eco-Efficiency Evaluation based
on life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology in 2006 (The Guideline for Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Eco-Efficiency Estimation 2006).
Subsequently, Nagao developed models to estimate the CO 2 emissions reduction
effects by ICT use for individual target ICT services. The models calculated CO 2
emissions reduction by multiplying the ICT service penetration rate, scale of the
evaluated activity, CO 2 emission reduction rate by using the ICT service, and CO 2
emissions factor for each ICT service, and sum the individual reductions of all 23
target ICT services (Nagao et al. 2015). Then Origuchi improved the previous study
by including the consideration of economic equilibriums among sectors, rather than
simply summing the individual effect of each service, by applying a static computable
general equilibrium (CGE), and assessed CO 2 emissions reduction effects by ICT
use throughout Japan in 2013 compared with 2005 (Origuchi et al. 2017). The
Global e-Sustainability Initiative published a report estimating the environmental
and economic impacts of ICT in 2030 at the global level. The report shows that
ICT’s own footprint is expected to reach 1250 Mt-CO 2 eq in 2030, corresponding to
1.97% of global emissions, while ICT use could enable the world to cut its global
emissions by 12,000 Mt-CO 2 eq, corresponding to 9.7 times ICT’s own CO 2 eq emissions. Also, ICT could generate over US$11 trillion in economic benefits per year
by 2030 (Global e-Sustainability Initiative and Accenture Strategy 2015).
Needless to say that penetration rates have grown very fast for some ICT services,
e.g., online shopping and online banking. Also, more and more new ICT services,
such as artificial intelligence (AI) technology, Internet of things (IoT), smart agriculture, and smart medical technology, are being introduced in many industries and our
lives gradually. However, few studies have focused on the GHG emission reduction
effects of future ICT use. In this paper, a dynamic CGE model is developed to forecast the environmental impacts on GHG emissions reduction by ICT use for future
periods. Two scenarios relative to ICT use in Japan until 2030 are assumed based on
several forecast reports, and the potential GHG direct emissions reductions effects
and economic growth effects caused by these ICT uses are estimated on the basis of
the dynamic CGE model.