Chapter 14
Forecast of Future Impacts of Using ICT
Services on GHG Emissions Reduction
and GDP Growth in Japan
Xiaoxi Zhang, Machiko Shinozuka, Yuriko Tanaka, Yuko Kanamori,
and Toshihiko Masui
Abstract Information and communication technologies (ICTs) can potentially
contribute to realizing a decarbonized and dematerialized society through increased
productivity in many industries and lifestyle changes. Several previous studies have
focused on these environmental impacts of ICTs use by estimating and comparing
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions with and without existing ICT use.
However, few studies have estimated the environmental impacts of future ICT use. In
this paper, a method is proposed to make scenarios and estimate future environmental
and economic impacts of ICTs use on the basis of a computable general equilibrium
(AIM/CGE [Japan]) model. The evaluated ICT services are ICT services already in
common use and several new ICTs. Two scenarios (baseline and ICT accelerated)
until 2030 are set for assessing the environmental and economic impacts of using
these ICTs. Model simulation results show Japan’s GHG emissions to be about 34
Mt-CO 2 eq lower and gross domestic product (GDP) more than ¥33 trillion higher in
2030 in the ICT accelerated scenario than in the baseline scenario. This demonstrates
that ICTs will be able to contribute to both economic growth and GHG emissions
reduction in the future.
Keywords ICTs · Environmental impacts · GDP · GHG emissions reduction ·
Scenario · CGE model
14.1 Introduction
The effects of climate change have already appeared in many areas (IPCC Fifth
Assessment 2014). To combat climate change and mitigate its effects and risks,
the Pairs Agreement was adopted in 2015, and all nations are expected to make
efforts to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In Japan, the target of
X. Zhang (B) · M. Shinozuka · Y. Tanaka
Space Environment and Energy Laboratories, NTT, Tokyo, Japan
e-mail: xiaoxi.zhang.bc@hco.ntt.co.jp
Y. Kanamori · T. Masui
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021
Y. Kishita et al. (eds.), EcoDesign and Sustainability II, Sustainable Production, Life
Cycle Engineering and Management, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-6775-9_14
207
Forecast of Future Impacts of Using ICT
Services on GHG Emissions Reduction
and GDP Growth in Japan
Xiaoxi Zhang, Machiko Shinozuka, Yuriko Tanaka, Yuko Kanamori,
and Toshihiko Masui
Abstract Information and communication technologies (ICTs) can potentially
contribute to realizing a decarbonized and dematerialized society through increased
productivity in many industries and lifestyle changes. Several previous studies have
focused on these environmental impacts of ICTs use by estimating and comparing
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions with and without existing ICT use.
However, few studies have estimated the environmental impacts of future ICT use. In
this paper, a method is proposed to make scenarios and estimate future environmental
and economic impacts of ICTs use on the basis of a computable general equilibrium
(AIM/CGE [Japan]) model. The evaluated ICT services are ICT services already in
common use and several new ICTs. Two scenarios (baseline and ICT accelerated)
until 2030 are set for assessing the environmental and economic impacts of using
these ICTs. Model simulation results show Japan’s GHG emissions to be about 34
Mt-CO 2 eq lower and gross domestic product (GDP) more than ¥33 trillion higher in
2030 in the ICT accelerated scenario than in the baseline scenario. This demonstrates
that ICTs will be able to contribute to both economic growth and GHG emissions
reduction in the future.
Keywords ICTs · Environmental impacts · GDP · GHG emissions reduction ·
Scenario · CGE model
14.1 Introduction
The effects of climate change have already appeared in many areas (IPCC Fifth
Assessment 2014). To combat climate change and mitigate its effects and risks,
the Pairs Agreement was adopted in 2015, and all nations are expected to make
efforts to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In Japan, the target of
X. Zhang (B) · M. Shinozuka · Y. Tanaka
Space Environment and Energy Laboratories, NTT, Tokyo, Japan
e-mail: xiaoxi.zhang.bc@hco.ntt.co.jp
Y. Kanamori · T. Masui
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021
Y. Kishita et al. (eds.), EcoDesign and Sustainability II, Sustainable Production, Life
Cycle Engineering and Management, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-6775-9_14
207