78 Rocío Alvarez-Tinoco et al.
The ‘no new nuclear’ pathway
In this narrative, much depends on reasons for the failure of the current policy
of major nuclear expansion. In a ‘no new nuclear’ pathway, raising finance for
new nuclear power projects becomes impossible. It took EDF several years to
assemble the £25 billion financing cost for Hinkley Point C and the successful
construction of this first new project is far from certain, especially given the fragility of the finances of EDF and problems in quality control in the manufacturing of critical components in France. In this narrative, the government is
unwilling to allow future nuclear projects to risk costing consumers the equivalent of the £30 billion excess costs that Hinkley involves (National Audit
Office, 2017). At the same time the world market for new nuclear stations fails
to pick up, putting further pressure on nuclear vendors, several of whom
(Toshiba/Westinghouse and EDF/Areva) are already facing some major financial problems.
The recent cost reductions in renewable technologies would continue and
make renewables highly competitive in market conditions. The offshore wind
sector, offering opportunities for a significant number of large- scale sites,
develops strongly and offers increasingly competitive costs. Solar PV is also
widely deployed, both in the form of solar farms and in building design. Currently uneconomic renewables, such as tidal power, gradually become more costcompetitive and local biomass use becomes more popular. Problems of both
seasonal and short- term bulk electricity storage are overcome at reasonable
prices, allowing renewables to achieve a large majority share of electricity generation despite the fact that they are not dispatchable. More comprehensive
interconnections with other countries would help. However, energy security
might constitute a high risk and uncertainty unless such storage systems can be
developed and work with high reliability. While the development of CCS is
imaginable in this pathway (as also the case for the ‘new nuclear’ pathway), this
is not considered here as the commercial development and deployment of CCS
is far from certain.
Such a renewables- only expansion pathway in the UK electricity system
involves a significant change of direction and risks (see Figure 5.4). This means
that a ‘no new nuclear’ pathway would be accompanied by a major new priority
for demand- reducing measures, allowing an 80% or more emission reduction
commitment to be met with a lower total installed capacity. Some renewables
in the UK enjoy policy support similar to that surrounding new nuclear. Both
traditional and recent policies in the UK seem to secure robust short- and
medium- term support for at least some forms of renewable energy. Scope for
reductions in energy demand across all consumption sectors, especially in households, is also recognised and supported by policy, hence further facilitating the
deployment of renewables. Wind energy, and particularly offshore wind technologies, can count on strong support from British policymakers, identifying it
as a key strategic technology for the country. For instance, the 2017 Clean
Growth Strategy (CGS) commits a total of more than £700 million for offshore
The ‘no new nuclear’ pathway
In this narrative, much depends on reasons for the failure of the current policy
of major nuclear expansion. In a ‘no new nuclear’ pathway, raising finance for
new nuclear power projects becomes impossible. It took EDF several years to
assemble the £25 billion financing cost for Hinkley Point C and the successful
construction of this first new project is far from certain, especially given the fragility of the finances of EDF and problems in quality control in the manufacturing of critical components in France. In this narrative, the government is
unwilling to allow future nuclear projects to risk costing consumers the equivalent of the £30 billion excess costs that Hinkley involves (National Audit
Office, 2017). At the same time the world market for new nuclear stations fails
to pick up, putting further pressure on nuclear vendors, several of whom
(Toshiba/Westinghouse and EDF/Areva) are already facing some major financial problems.
The recent cost reductions in renewable technologies would continue and
make renewables highly competitive in market conditions. The offshore wind
sector, offering opportunities for a significant number of large- scale sites,
develops strongly and offers increasingly competitive costs. Solar PV is also
widely deployed, both in the form of solar farms and in building design. Currently uneconomic renewables, such as tidal power, gradually become more costcompetitive and local biomass use becomes more popular. Problems of both
seasonal and short- term bulk electricity storage are overcome at reasonable
prices, allowing renewables to achieve a large majority share of electricity generation despite the fact that they are not dispatchable. More comprehensive
interconnections with other countries would help. However, energy security
might constitute a high risk and uncertainty unless such storage systems can be
developed and work with high reliability. While the development of CCS is
imaginable in this pathway (as also the case for the ‘new nuclear’ pathway), this
is not considered here as the commercial development and deployment of CCS
is far from certain.
Such a renewables- only expansion pathway in the UK electricity system
involves a significant change of direction and risks (see Figure 5.4). This means
that a ‘no new nuclear’ pathway would be accompanied by a major new priority
for demand- reducing measures, allowing an 80% or more emission reduction
commitment to be met with a lower total installed capacity. Some renewables
in the UK enjoy policy support similar to that surrounding new nuclear. Both
traditional and recent policies in the UK seem to secure robust short- and
medium- term support for at least some forms of renewable energy. Scope for
reductions in energy demand across all consumption sectors, especially in households, is also recognised and supported by policy, hence further facilitating the
deployment of renewables. Wind energy, and particularly offshore wind technologies, can count on strong support from British policymakers, identifying it
as a key strategic technology for the country. For instance, the 2017 Clean
Growth Strategy (CGS) commits a total of more than £700 million for offshore