2 Framing risks and uncertainties
associated with low- carbon
pathways
Susanne Hanger- Kopp, Alexandros Nikas, and
Jenny Lieu
This chapter introduces a broad conceptual framework for assessing risks and
uncertainties across disciplines and subject matter. The framework enables
transdisciplinary analysis for understanding risks and uncertainties associated
with low- carbon energy transition pathways based on a consistent application in
different country contexts. For this purpose, we require flexible epistemologies.
We acknowledge that risks are socially constructed. Albeit related, we distinguish risk as a narrower concept from uncertainties. Within the social realm, we
find some level of agreement on what important risks are, such as death, negative impacts on health, and excess loss of money. Some of these risks we can
quantify, for example as probabilities or point estimates. Risks that cannot be
quantified but which can be specified by stakeholders are no less important.
Even concerns over issues that are low- risk according to quantitative probabilistic assessment need to be taken seriously, as they may have serious impacts on
human behaviour, decision making, and acceptance.
Some economic approaches allow for risk to refer to positive impacts, i.e. opportunities (Markandya et al., 2018). In this book we focus on the negative connotation of risk because we believe that this aspect may be neglected, given that
low- carbon energy technologies, and associated policies and practices, are often
considered to be inherently positive. However, in order to guarantee their legitimacy and lasting success, risks need to be anticipated and appropriately managed.
Risk and uncertainty
First, we introduce the baseline definitions for risk and uncertainty, which we
find useful for inter- and transdisciplinary approaches, in order to identify and
assess risks and uncertainties in the domain of decarbonisation policies. We
believe that these may apply to other subject matter but this remains to be
investigated. Second, we provide a short overview of relevant disciplinary
approaches and state of the art discussions on uncertainty and risks, with the
aim of identifying common ground to support interdisciplinary communication. We do not question disciplinary conventions on uses of the concepts,
but rather suggest areas where leniency may be required to allow for interand trans-disciplinary understanding.
associated with low- carbon
pathways
Susanne Hanger- Kopp, Alexandros Nikas, and
Jenny Lieu
This chapter introduces a broad conceptual framework for assessing risks and
uncertainties across disciplines and subject matter. The framework enables
transdisciplinary analysis for understanding risks and uncertainties associated
with low- carbon energy transition pathways based on a consistent application in
different country contexts. For this purpose, we require flexible epistemologies.
We acknowledge that risks are socially constructed. Albeit related, we distinguish risk as a narrower concept from uncertainties. Within the social realm, we
find some level of agreement on what important risks are, such as death, negative impacts on health, and excess loss of money. Some of these risks we can
quantify, for example as probabilities or point estimates. Risks that cannot be
quantified but which can be specified by stakeholders are no less important.
Even concerns over issues that are low- risk according to quantitative probabilistic assessment need to be taken seriously, as they may have serious impacts on
human behaviour, decision making, and acceptance.
Some economic approaches allow for risk to refer to positive impacts, i.e. opportunities (Markandya et al., 2018). In this book we focus on the negative connotation of risk because we believe that this aspect may be neglected, given that
low- carbon energy technologies, and associated policies and practices, are often
considered to be inherently positive. However, in order to guarantee their legitimacy and lasting success, risks need to be anticipated and appropriately managed.
Risk and uncertainty
First, we introduce the baseline definitions for risk and uncertainty, which we
find useful for inter- and transdisciplinary approaches, in order to identify and
assess risks and uncertainties in the domain of decarbonisation policies. We
believe that these may apply to other subject matter but this remains to be
investigated. Second, we provide a short overview of relevant disciplinary
approaches and state of the art discussions on uncertainty and risks, with the
aim of identifying common ground to support interdisciplinary communication. We do not question disciplinary conventions on uses of the concepts,
but rather suggest areas where leniency may be required to allow for interand trans-disciplinary understanding.