United Kingdom 83
state engagement and action. Stakeholders involved in the assessment almost
unanimously agreed that this is a major driver of uncertainty, in particular for
the nuclear sector.
Rapid advances in energy- related technological innovation may lead to significant changes in the electricity framework, in the UK as well as in the rest of
the world. The breakthrough in new, economically, socially, and environmentally competitive technologies may represent a key element in determining
changes within the electricity mix and may lead to the replacement of obsolete
incumbent technologies. While possibly appearing as a risk, uneven technological innovation has been included as a driver of uncertainty due to its unpredictability. While it is possible that new technologies breakthrough in both new
nuclear and non- nuclear sectors, it is impossible to forecast these changes. For
instance, nuclear fusion represents a long- lasting chimera for nuclear and electricity generally, though its effective realisation could lead to a radical change
in the electricity mix worldwide. Technology commitments at national level
serve to mitigate the uncertainties concerning technological innovation. When
analysing the CGS sections on investment in low- carbon research and innovation (HM Government, 2017, pp. 100–101), it can be seen that the UK is
significantly committed to stimulating technological innovation. In detail, the
CGS promises significant investments for relevant research and innovation
(more than £900 million to 2021), devoting more than 50% of these investments to nuclear power while limiting investment in renewables research to just
20% of the total.
The December 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change contains highly
ambitious goals in terms of mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and
therefore has potentially significant impacts for the energy sectors for all signatory countries. However, the agreement still lacks full design of its regulatory
framework, leaving significant uncertainty margins that affect electricity stakeholders in the UK and elsewhere. Stakeholder opinions in our research suggest
that the Paris Agreement may act as a driver in reducing uncertainty for both
the ‘new nuclear’ and ‘no new nuclear’ pathways, thanks to its quantified
pledges to be delivered at national and international levels. The great majority
of stakeholders suggested that, because both pathways have low- carbon ambitions, the Paris Agreement could reduce uncertainties and ultimately favour the
implementation of either pathway. A limited number of stakeholders judged the
Paris Agreement as possibly neutral in driving the selected pathways, while no
stakeholder identified the agreement as a driver of additional uncertainty.
The referendum binding the UK to leaving the European Union (Brexit) was
widely recognised as a significant driver of uncertainty for the implementation
of both the ‘new nuclear’ and ‘no new nuclear’ pathways. Stakeholders stressed
that the UK exit from EURATOM creates the biggest Brexit- related uncertainties for UK new nuclear. Uncertainty about possible limits for partnerships with
European firms has also been recognised as potentially threatening for the
nuclear sector. On the other hand, some stakeholders have suggested possible
bureaucratic burden reductions and easing of public funding as positive Brexit
state engagement and action. Stakeholders involved in the assessment almost
unanimously agreed that this is a major driver of uncertainty, in particular for
the nuclear sector.
Rapid advances in energy- related technological innovation may lead to significant changes in the electricity framework, in the UK as well as in the rest of
the world. The breakthrough in new, economically, socially, and environmentally competitive technologies may represent a key element in determining
changes within the electricity mix and may lead to the replacement of obsolete
incumbent technologies. While possibly appearing as a risk, uneven technological innovation has been included as a driver of uncertainty due to its unpredictability. While it is possible that new technologies breakthrough in both new
nuclear and non- nuclear sectors, it is impossible to forecast these changes. For
instance, nuclear fusion represents a long- lasting chimera for nuclear and electricity generally, though its effective realisation could lead to a radical change
in the electricity mix worldwide. Technology commitments at national level
serve to mitigate the uncertainties concerning technological innovation. When
analysing the CGS sections on investment in low- carbon research and innovation (HM Government, 2017, pp. 100–101), it can be seen that the UK is
significantly committed to stimulating technological innovation. In detail, the
CGS promises significant investments for relevant research and innovation
(more than £900 million to 2021), devoting more than 50% of these investments to nuclear power while limiting investment in renewables research to just
20% of the total.
The December 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change contains highly
ambitious goals in terms of mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and
therefore has potentially significant impacts for the energy sectors for all signatory countries. However, the agreement still lacks full design of its regulatory
framework, leaving significant uncertainty margins that affect electricity stakeholders in the UK and elsewhere. Stakeholder opinions in our research suggest
that the Paris Agreement may act as a driver in reducing uncertainty for both
the ‘new nuclear’ and ‘no new nuclear’ pathways, thanks to its quantified
pledges to be delivered at national and international levels. The great majority
of stakeholders suggested that, because both pathways have low- carbon ambitions, the Paris Agreement could reduce uncertainties and ultimately favour the
implementation of either pathway. A limited number of stakeholders judged the
Paris Agreement as possibly neutral in driving the selected pathways, while no
stakeholder identified the agreement as a driver of additional uncertainty.
The referendum binding the UK to leaving the European Union (Brexit) was
widely recognised as a significant driver of uncertainty for the implementation
of both the ‘new nuclear’ and ‘no new nuclear’ pathways. Stakeholders stressed
that the UK exit from EURATOM creates the biggest Brexit- related uncertainties for UK new nuclear. Uncertainty about possible limits for partnerships with
European firms has also been recognised as potentially threatening for the
nuclear sector. On the other hand, some stakeholders have suggested possible
bureaucratic burden reductions and easing of public funding as positive Brexit