762
8 Modern Weapons: Possibilities and Limitations
Therefore, the requirement of ensuring high technical reliability of BCS first
of all determines the necessity to ensure guaranteed maximum level of reliability
of all electronic units (and their element base) with simultaneous provision of the
maximum possible resource of their operation in space conditions (at least 10 years).
All of this shall be ensured not only without repair works usually performed on Earth,
but also without regular planned maintenance.
Here, one of the multiple contradictions is in place. On the one hand—the international technical experience, including in the field of aircraft and rocket building,
shows that complication of design of any technical means, including the ones
developed before, improves functional possibilities and technical characteristics but
reduces the terms of their safe operation. On Earth, this problem is solved by means
of more frequent maintenance operations.
On the other hand, all components of space defense layer of missile defense,
including high requirements, shall be based on the most advanced and clearly more
complicated technical and technological solutions.
Of course, as demonstrated in [3], this problem is technically solved by known
ways (multiple redundancies, duplication, triplication, majoritation, special software,
etc.).
However, it needs to be said that the problem of ensuring purely technical reliability (of not just SBS, but also all components and subsystems located in the nearEarth space of the space layer) causes extremely complicated military and political
issues.
It is obvious to any non-expert in space equipment that even a temporary (noncatastrophic) failure of an important electronic unit of the SBS, especially in combination with failure of a single element of the combat management subsystem can
cause an avalanche-like chain of unpredictable reactions of the entire extremely automated decision-making mechanism that will start controlling the action of the missile
defense system.
It is also necessary to take into account the existing certain possibility of emergence of such combinations of technical faults and failures of various missile defense
components that can cause arbitrary (not controlled by a human operator) activation
and triggering of separate components as well as the entire missile defense system.
Clearly, the consequences of such scenario are so unacceptable and unpredictable
that, however low its possibility is (and no expert denies it), it cannot be disregarded.
Even civil reliability specialists can say that the currently used methods of redundancy, duplication, triplication, etc. of components (and the SBS in general) not
only cannot solve this problem, but even can complicate it further, since the classic
rule is used here: an increase in the number of elements of any technical system
only increases the possibility of failure of such system, as well as the possibility of
occurrence of unfavorable combination of technical faults (failures).
Science and technology are constantly evolving; scientists and technicians are
solving their own problems, while the vast majority of generals, senators, and government officials do not read such clever books, solving their political, military, strategic,
and other global problems by forming and funding new ambitious programs and
projects without really thinking about their possible negative outcome.
8 Modern Weapons: Possibilities and Limitations
Therefore, the requirement of ensuring high technical reliability of BCS first
of all determines the necessity to ensure guaranteed maximum level of reliability
of all electronic units (and their element base) with simultaneous provision of the
maximum possible resource of their operation in space conditions (at least 10 years).
All of this shall be ensured not only without repair works usually performed on Earth,
but also without regular planned maintenance.
Here, one of the multiple contradictions is in place. On the one hand—the international technical experience, including in the field of aircraft and rocket building,
shows that complication of design of any technical means, including the ones
developed before, improves functional possibilities and technical characteristics but
reduces the terms of their safe operation. On Earth, this problem is solved by means
of more frequent maintenance operations.
On the other hand, all components of space defense layer of missile defense,
including high requirements, shall be based on the most advanced and clearly more
complicated technical and technological solutions.
Of course, as demonstrated in [3], this problem is technically solved by known
ways (multiple redundancies, duplication, triplication, majoritation, special software,
etc.).
However, it needs to be said that the problem of ensuring purely technical reliability (of not just SBS, but also all components and subsystems located in the nearEarth space of the space layer) causes extremely complicated military and political
issues.
It is obvious to any non-expert in space equipment that even a temporary (noncatastrophic) failure of an important electronic unit of the SBS, especially in combination with failure of a single element of the combat management subsystem can
cause an avalanche-like chain of unpredictable reactions of the entire extremely automated decision-making mechanism that will start controlling the action of the missile
defense system.
It is also necessary to take into account the existing certain possibility of emergence of such combinations of technical faults and failures of various missile defense
components that can cause arbitrary (not controlled by a human operator) activation
and triggering of separate components as well as the entire missile defense system.
Clearly, the consequences of such scenario are so unacceptable and unpredictable
that, however low its possibility is (and no expert denies it), it cannot be disregarded.
Even civil reliability specialists can say that the currently used methods of redundancy, duplication, triplication, etc. of components (and the SBS in general) not
only cannot solve this problem, but even can complicate it further, since the classic
rule is used here: an increase in the number of elements of any technical system
only increases the possibility of failure of such system, as well as the possibility of
occurrence of unfavorable combination of technical faults (failures).
Science and technology are constantly evolving; scientists and technicians are
solving their own problems, while the vast majority of generals, senators, and government officials do not read such clever books, solving their political, military, strategic,
and other global problems by forming and funding new ambitious programs and
projects without really thinking about their possible negative outcome.