precipitation accumulations for subtropical latitudes, pointed out by the IPCC, is not
easy to verify for the Iberian Peninsula, given the complexity of the precipitation
spatial distribution and temporal concentration, which needs the use of a considerable number of long climatic series. Most studies do not show significant precipitation trends for the whole Peninsula, but some of them show a decreasing trend in the
south of the Peninsula (Rodrigo et al. 1999; Castro et al. 2005; Caloiero et al. 2018).
Satellite observations from 1985 to 2006 indicate that in the last two decades the
temperature in the upper layer of the Mediterranean Sea has been increasing at an
average (ÆSD) rate of 0.03 Æ 0.008
C year
–1 for the western basin (Nykjaer 2009;
Fig. 3.17).
Global climate models predict that, under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the Alboran area, like the rest of the Mediterranean region, will be affected by
large temperature increases and precipitation reduction (Christensen et al. 2013). In
addition, it will suffer pronounced circulation changes, which together with the
hydroclimate changes, will result in a reduced P-E over the Mediterranean region
in the future year-round (Hoerling et al. 2012; Zappa et al. 2013; Seager et al. 2014;
Simpson et al. 2014). The IPCC 2013 report indicates that there is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the twenty-first century in southern Europe and
the Mediterranean region due to reduced precipitation or increased evapotranspiration, or both.
Water resource is a critical issue for a large part of the Mediterranean basin.
Freshwater is unevenly distributed in time and space with few short-duration heavy
precipitation and long drought periods. Such a situation occurs against a background
of increasing water demand and aggravates with climate change (HyMeX 2010). In a
context of climate change, the Mediterranean region population is confronted with
challenging environmental changes, such as short-time extreme events (heavy precipitation, flash floods, etc.) and long-term modifications (change in access to water
resources, droughts, etc.) (Drobinski et al. 2014).
3.2 Large Scale and Synoptic Systems in the North
Atlantic-European Sector
3.2.1 Large-Scale Circulation
The climate in a region is controlled by the long-term mean atmospheric (and
oceanic) circulation, transient eddies of both high and low frequency: baroclinic
eddies and weather regimes, respectively. All of them have dependence largely on
latitude and latitude, mainly due to the insolation and the planetary waves, respectively, and of other physical and physicogeographical factors like altitude and
orography, land–sea interactions (distance from the sea), and smaller scale processes
(Xoplaki 2002).
3 Alboran Sea Area Climate and Weather
49
easy to verify for the Iberian Peninsula, given the complexity of the precipitation
spatial distribution and temporal concentration, which needs the use of a considerable number of long climatic series. Most studies do not show significant precipitation trends for the whole Peninsula, but some of them show a decreasing trend in the
south of the Peninsula (Rodrigo et al. 1999; Castro et al. 2005; Caloiero et al. 2018).
Satellite observations from 1985 to 2006 indicate that in the last two decades the
temperature in the upper layer of the Mediterranean Sea has been increasing at an
average (ÆSD) rate of 0.03 Æ 0.008
C year
–1 for the western basin (Nykjaer 2009;
Fig. 3.17).
Global climate models predict that, under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the Alboran area, like the rest of the Mediterranean region, will be affected by
large temperature increases and precipitation reduction (Christensen et al. 2013). In
addition, it will suffer pronounced circulation changes, which together with the
hydroclimate changes, will result in a reduced P-E over the Mediterranean region
in the future year-round (Hoerling et al. 2012; Zappa et al. 2013; Seager et al. 2014;
Simpson et al. 2014). The IPCC 2013 report indicates that there is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the twenty-first century in southern Europe and
the Mediterranean region due to reduced precipitation or increased evapotranspiration, or both.
Water resource is a critical issue for a large part of the Mediterranean basin.
Freshwater is unevenly distributed in time and space with few short-duration heavy
precipitation and long drought periods. Such a situation occurs against a background
of increasing water demand and aggravates with climate change (HyMeX 2010). In a
context of climate change, the Mediterranean region population is confronted with
challenging environmental changes, such as short-time extreme events (heavy precipitation, flash floods, etc.) and long-term modifications (change in access to water
resources, droughts, etc.) (Drobinski et al. 2014).
3.2 Large Scale and Synoptic Systems in the North
Atlantic-European Sector
3.2.1 Large-Scale Circulation
The climate in a region is controlled by the long-term mean atmospheric (and
oceanic) circulation, transient eddies of both high and low frequency: baroclinic
eddies and weather regimes, respectively. All of them have dependence largely on
latitude and latitude, mainly due to the insolation and the planetary waves, respectively, and of other physical and physicogeographical factors like altitude and
orography, land–sea interactions (distance from the sea), and smaller scale processes
(Xoplaki 2002).
3 Alboran Sea Area Climate and Weather
49