Change: Risks and Predictability
Carsten Hobohm and Sula E. Vanderplank
Abstract Different ecological methods are available to characterize environmental
heterogeneity at landscape scales. However, to understand species compositions,
distribution patterns within habitats and landscapes, and recent challenges caused by
human impacts, a tool for characterizing and quantifying change of environmental
conditions over time is needed as well.
Species compositions in general are related to both evolutionary/historical events
and current environmental conditions. Dramatic events and changes often have longlasting effects on ecosystems and species assemblages.
This study deals with the question of how stochastic effects, changing ecological
conditions, the introduction of alien species, and dramatic events in general, can be
characterized and quantified. We propose some initial ideas for the establishment of
an indicator system for constancy and change through time, with respect to the effect
size. The effect size depends not only on the magnitude of the factor but also on
adaptability of organisms and susceptibility of the ecosystem. These metrics are
important for understanding species composition and might be useful for predictability of survival. The species pools of large regions such as continents represent
changes during evolutionary times whereas species assemblages of small regions
often reflect short-time influences and events in the landscape history.
This contribution is an attempt to combine different orders of change to establish
a tool for estimating environmental variability in time. Such a system can be used for
calculating the risk of biodiversity loss.
Keywords Constancy · Continuity · Change · Species compositions · Ecological
conditions · Introduction of alien species · Risk of extinction
C. Hobohm (*)
Department of Ecology and Environmental Education, University of Flensburg (EUF),
Flensburg, Germany
e-mail: hobohm@uni-flensburg.de
S. E. Vanderplank
Pronatura Noroeste, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021
C. Hobohm (ed.), Perspectives for Biodiversity and Ecosystems, Environmental
Challenges and Solutions, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-57710-0_8
181
Carsten Hobohm and Sula E. Vanderplank
Abstract Different ecological methods are available to characterize environmental
heterogeneity at landscape scales. However, to understand species compositions,
distribution patterns within habitats and landscapes, and recent challenges caused by
human impacts, a tool for characterizing and quantifying change of environmental
conditions over time is needed as well.
Species compositions in general are related to both evolutionary/historical events
and current environmental conditions. Dramatic events and changes often have longlasting effects on ecosystems and species assemblages.
This study deals with the question of how stochastic effects, changing ecological
conditions, the introduction of alien species, and dramatic events in general, can be
characterized and quantified. We propose some initial ideas for the establishment of
an indicator system for constancy and change through time, with respect to the effect
size. The effect size depends not only on the magnitude of the factor but also on
adaptability of organisms and susceptibility of the ecosystem. These metrics are
important for understanding species composition and might be useful for predictability of survival. The species pools of large regions such as continents represent
changes during evolutionary times whereas species assemblages of small regions
often reflect short-time influences and events in the landscape history.
This contribution is an attempt to combine different orders of change to establish
a tool for estimating environmental variability in time. Such a system can be used for
calculating the risk of biodiversity loss.
Keywords Constancy · Continuity · Change · Species compositions · Ecological
conditions · Introduction of alien species · Risk of extinction
C. Hobohm (*)
Department of Ecology and Environmental Education, University of Flensburg (EUF),
Flensburg, Germany
e-mail: hobohm@uni-flensburg.de
S. E. Vanderplank
Pronatura Noroeste, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021
C. Hobohm (ed.), Perspectives for Biodiversity and Ecosystems, Environmental
Challenges and Solutions, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-57710-0_8
181