5
Fuels and Trends
TABLe 1.2
Crude Oil Production Projection (Million Barrels Per Day)
2030
Projection
2007
Reference
Low Oil Price
High Oil Price
Conventional liquids
Conventional crude oil and
71.0
77.3
93.6
57.7
lease condensate
Natural gas plant liquids
8.0
12.4
11.2
12.1
Refinery gain
2.1
2.7
3.2
2.1
Subtotal
81.1
92.4
108.1
71.9
Unconventional liquids
Oil sands, extra-heavy crude
2.0
5.6
6.7
6.1
oil, shale oil
Coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids
0.2
1.6
0.8
2.8
Biofuels
1.2
5.4
3.3
7.7
Other
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
Subtotal
3.7
13.0
11.2
17.0
Total
84.8
105.4
119.3
88.9
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2009, with projection to 2030, World Energy Outlook ©
DOE/EIA-0383, 2009, Table 5, page 30, www.iea.org.
Arab–Israeli wars in 1967 and 1973, the oil embargo in 1973, the Islamic
revolution in Iran in 1979, the Iran–Iraq war in 1980, the Iraqi attack on Kuwait
in 1990, and the latest Iraq war resulted in awareness about energy insecurity in the world. During the Iranian revolution in 1979–1980 and with the
beginning of Iran–Iraq war in the 1980s, there was an increase in oil prices
with the drop in oil consumption; that is, 63 MBD in 1980 to 59 MBD in 1983.
However, oil consumption of the world was about 87 MBD in 2008. The consumption of petroleum products depends on economic growth, government
policies, and vehicle population. Rapid economic growth of China and India
has significant increase in crude oil consumption. Being fifth largest energy
consumer in the world, India imports about 70% of crude oil requirement
during 2003 and 2004 (Pandey 2008).
During the year 2007–2008, the price of crude of oil went up to $140 per
barrel. If the oil price goes up, the import cost also goes up immediately,
apart from the demand-pull price increase due to the continuing need for oil
in transport, power, and industry sectors. Hence, the oil import bill has serious consequences on the nations’ economy. Substitution of fuels for petroleum products therefore has a positive effect on reducing imports. Efforts
are being made to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels and maximize the
utilization of environment-friendly energy sources and fuels for meeting
energy needs.
Fuels and Trends
TABLe 1.2
Crude Oil Production Projection (Million Barrels Per Day)
2030
Projection
2007
Reference
Low Oil Price
High Oil Price
Conventional liquids
Conventional crude oil and
71.0
77.3
93.6
57.7
lease condensate
Natural gas plant liquids
8.0
12.4
11.2
12.1
Refinery gain
2.1
2.7
3.2
2.1
Subtotal
81.1
92.4
108.1
71.9
Unconventional liquids
Oil sands, extra-heavy crude
2.0
5.6
6.7
6.1
oil, shale oil
Coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids
0.2
1.6
0.8
2.8
Biofuels
1.2
5.4
3.3
7.7
Other
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
Subtotal
3.7
13.0
11.2
17.0
Total
84.8
105.4
119.3
88.9
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2009, with projection to 2030, World Energy Outlook ©
DOE/EIA-0383, 2009, Table 5, page 30, www.iea.org.
Arab–Israeli wars in 1967 and 1973, the oil embargo in 1973, the Islamic
revolution in Iran in 1979, the Iran–Iraq war in 1980, the Iraqi attack on Kuwait
in 1990, and the latest Iraq war resulted in awareness about energy insecurity in the world. During the Iranian revolution in 1979–1980 and with the
beginning of Iran–Iraq war in the 1980s, there was an increase in oil prices
with the drop in oil consumption; that is, 63 MBD in 1980 to 59 MBD in 1983.
However, oil consumption of the world was about 87 MBD in 2008. The consumption of petroleum products depends on economic growth, government
policies, and vehicle population. Rapid economic growth of China and India
has significant increase in crude oil consumption. Being fifth largest energy
consumer in the world, India imports about 70% of crude oil requirement
during 2003 and 2004 (Pandey 2008).
During the year 2007–2008, the price of crude of oil went up to $140 per
barrel. If the oil price goes up, the import cost also goes up immediately,
apart from the demand-pull price increase due to the continuing need for oil
in transport, power, and industry sectors. Hence, the oil import bill has serious consequences on the nations’ economy. Substitution of fuels for petroleum products therefore has a positive effect on reducing imports. Efforts
are being made to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels and maximize the
utilization of environment-friendly energy sources and fuels for meeting
energy needs.