64
P. Sagna et al.
Fig. 6 Evolution of Pettitt’s
test results in Benin from
1921 to 2016
Fig. 7 Evolution of Lee and
Heghinian’s test results in
Benin from 1921 to 2016
Bayesian’s method results
A posteriori probability density function mode
of the break point position: 0,2993 in 1969
154.4 mm: 12.1%. The six rainiest years, with an SPI higher than 2, are found in
the first period, with 1567 mm in 1929, 1611.3 mm in 1933, 1561.1 mm in 1957,
1618.9 mm in 1962, 1647.5 mm in 1963, and 1683.7 mm in 1968. The driest years
are more scattered, with 960.8 mm in 1946, 967.8 mm in 1958, 835 mm in 1977,
809.7 mm in 1983, and 821 mm in 2001. The difference between the wettest year
(1968) and the driest year (1983) is 874 mm. Overall, analysis of the rainfall series
P. Sagna et al.
Fig. 6 Evolution of Pettitt’s
test results in Benin from
1921 to 2016
Fig. 7 Evolution of Lee and
Heghinian’s test results in
Benin from 1921 to 2016
Bayesian’s method results
A posteriori probability density function mode
of the break point position: 0,2993 in 1969
154.4 mm: 12.1%. The six rainiest years, with an SPI higher than 2, are found in
the first period, with 1567 mm in 1929, 1611.3 mm in 1933, 1561.1 mm in 1957,
1618.9 mm in 1962, 1647.5 mm in 1963, and 1683.7 mm in 1968. The driest years
are more scattered, with 960.8 mm in 1946, 967.8 mm in 1958, 835 mm in 1977,
809.7 mm in 1983, and 821 mm in 2001. The difference between the wettest year
(1968) and the driest year (1983) is 874 mm. Overall, analysis of the rainfall series