2 Africa-Wide Trends in Development and Water …
21
2018). A recent study on the Mekong has shown that should fisheries fail there (as
a result of hydropower development along the river), the replacement protein and
lysine from wild caught fisheries would require a significant expansion of agricultural land, which may not be available. Cambodia, for example, would require as
much as 2,409,000 ha (a 43% increase) of agricultural land to replace lost lysine,
and an additional 1,556,000 ha to replace protein lost by the expansion of the current
crop and livestock composition of the country (Orr et al. 2012). A similar assumption can be made in Africa in terms of the additional land needed to replace wild
caught fisheries. Furthermore, this represents an increase in the blue water footprint
(to irrigate crops and feed livestock) rather than use of green water, which is related
to wild caught fisheries.
3 Africa’s Climate
Large parts of Africa are subject to seasonally variable hydrology and
geographically uneven distribution of water resources. This is compounded
by climate change, to which Africa is particularly vulnerable. These risks are
furthermore compounded by the diversity of hydro-climatic zones across the continent; different economic sectors, such as agriculture, manufacturing and mining, are
subject to different climate risks. A recent study (2011), which models the impact of
climate change on economic growth, finds that water remains a significant obstacle
to growth in both developed and developing countries irrespective of current water
scarcity (Distefano and Kelly 2017). It concludes that efficiency gains from greater
investment in demand management approaches, such as reducing the use of waterintensive goods and services, less waste and shifting water footprints to regions that
are more resilient to the impact of climate change, are required. This underscores
that water security risk mitigation in Africa must account for both infrastructure and
management.
Climate change projections for Africa, like all climate projections, have large
margins of uncertainty, but clearly trend to warming. It is therefore important
to recognize that macro-scale estimates may vary significantly at regional or subregional scale. Nonetheless, historical data shows a warming trend across the continent since the 1960s. According to a high Representative Concentration Pathway
(RCP) estimate, warming projections using moderate projections indicate that extensive areas of Africa will exceed warming by 2 °C by the last two decades of this
century. It is likely that land temperatures across Africa will rise faster than global
land temperature averages, particularly in more arid regions, and that the rate of
increase of minimum temperatures will exceed the rate of increase of maximum
temperatures (Niang et al. 2014). This air temperature warming alone has significant
implications for agriculture and the agri-business sector, particularly in relation to
increased crop water requirements, changes in growing seasons and water availability
in general (Figs. 7 and 8).
21
2018). A recent study on the Mekong has shown that should fisheries fail there (as
a result of hydropower development along the river), the replacement protein and
lysine from wild caught fisheries would require a significant expansion of agricultural land, which may not be available. Cambodia, for example, would require as
much as 2,409,000 ha (a 43% increase) of agricultural land to replace lost lysine,
and an additional 1,556,000 ha to replace protein lost by the expansion of the current
crop and livestock composition of the country (Orr et al. 2012). A similar assumption can be made in Africa in terms of the additional land needed to replace wild
caught fisheries. Furthermore, this represents an increase in the blue water footprint
(to irrigate crops and feed livestock) rather than use of green water, which is related
to wild caught fisheries.
3 Africa’s Climate
Large parts of Africa are subject to seasonally variable hydrology and
geographically uneven distribution of water resources. This is compounded
by climate change, to which Africa is particularly vulnerable. These risks are
furthermore compounded by the diversity of hydro-climatic zones across the continent; different economic sectors, such as agriculture, manufacturing and mining, are
subject to different climate risks. A recent study (2011), which models the impact of
climate change on economic growth, finds that water remains a significant obstacle
to growth in both developed and developing countries irrespective of current water
scarcity (Distefano and Kelly 2017). It concludes that efficiency gains from greater
investment in demand management approaches, such as reducing the use of waterintensive goods and services, less waste and shifting water footprints to regions that
are more resilient to the impact of climate change, are required. This underscores
that water security risk mitigation in Africa must account for both infrastructure and
management.
Climate change projections for Africa, like all climate projections, have large
margins of uncertainty, but clearly trend to warming. It is therefore important
to recognize that macro-scale estimates may vary significantly at regional or subregional scale. Nonetheless, historical data shows a warming trend across the continent since the 1960s. According to a high Representative Concentration Pathway
(RCP) estimate, warming projections using moderate projections indicate that extensive areas of Africa will exceed warming by 2 °C by the last two decades of this
century. It is likely that land temperatures across Africa will rise faster than global
land temperature averages, particularly in more arid regions, and that the rate of
increase of minimum temperatures will exceed the rate of increase of maximum
temperatures (Niang et al. 2014). This air temperature warming alone has significant
implications for agriculture and the agri-business sector, particularly in relation to
increased crop water requirements, changes in growing seasons and water availability
in general (Figs. 7 and 8).