16 Potential Transboundary Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian …
361
distribution of rainfall on the Nile Basin countries, reflecting the wide range of spatial
geographical climate variability.
According to the 1959 agreement, Sudan‘s annual share from the Nile is 18.5
BCM. Egypt‘s annual share is 55.5 BCM, and is governed by the 1959 agreement
and confirmed by historical uses for decades. This share is not enough to meet
Egypt’s increasing water needs. In 2015, Egypt imported agricultural food products
that would have required about 50 BCM of (virtual) water to grow (AbuZeid 2018).
Egypt is the only country among those in the Nile Basin that is forced to reuse
wastewater and agricultural drainage to meet its water demand. It has also desalinated
seawater for decades to fill the water gap on the coasts of the Red Sea and recently
in cities on the Mediterranean Sea. Satellite images confirm Ethiopia‘s use of the
Blue Nile Basin water in agriculture, industry, and urban development, but no data
is published showing the exact abstractions or water uses in the Blue Nile Basin in
Ethiopia. However, Ethiopia’s agriculture is more dependent on rainfall. The Blue
Nile is the main tributary of the Nile River, and has the largest flow volume among all
major tributaries, discharging about 50 BCM/year on average. The effect of annual
climate variability on the Blue Nile can be inferred from the recorded flows from
1911 to 2015, with a range from 20.69 BCM/year in 1913 to 69.85 BCM/year in
1929. The Blue Nile originates in Ethiopia, and flows downstream to Khartoum in
Sudan, where it joins the main Nile, which then flows into Egypt.
2 The “GERD” and The “Agreement on the Declaration
of Principles”
Ethiopia launched the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia in April 2011 and the project was about 65% complete
by November 2017. Figure 2 shows the progress of construction on the GERD and
the auxiliary Saddle Dam as of 2017.
GERD has become controversial because of its potential impacts on downstream
countries, Egypt and Sudan. In an attempt to assess the impact of the GERD on Egypt
and Sudan during filling and operation, the Center for Environment and Development
of the Arab Region and Europe (CEDARE) conducted a comprehensive study on the
potential impacts of the GERD on Egypt and Sudan (AbuZeid 2017a). Some of the
results of this study are presented here.
The “Agreement on the Declaration of Principles on the GERD,” signed by the
leaders of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan in March 2015, stipulates that the three countries will agree on “the first filling rules, the annual operation rules and will establish
a mechanism to coordinate the management of dams and reservoirs in the three countries.” It is therefore important to study the potential impacts of the GERD on the
downstream countries of Sudan and Egypt, so that determinations about filling and
operating rules can be made based on the results. A consortium of two consulting
firms was hired by the three countries to conduct formal impact assessment studies.
361
distribution of rainfall on the Nile Basin countries, reflecting the wide range of spatial
geographical climate variability.
According to the 1959 agreement, Sudan‘s annual share from the Nile is 18.5
BCM. Egypt‘s annual share is 55.5 BCM, and is governed by the 1959 agreement
and confirmed by historical uses for decades. This share is not enough to meet
Egypt’s increasing water needs. In 2015, Egypt imported agricultural food products
that would have required about 50 BCM of (virtual) water to grow (AbuZeid 2018).
Egypt is the only country among those in the Nile Basin that is forced to reuse
wastewater and agricultural drainage to meet its water demand. It has also desalinated
seawater for decades to fill the water gap on the coasts of the Red Sea and recently
in cities on the Mediterranean Sea. Satellite images confirm Ethiopia‘s use of the
Blue Nile Basin water in agriculture, industry, and urban development, but no data
is published showing the exact abstractions or water uses in the Blue Nile Basin in
Ethiopia. However, Ethiopia’s agriculture is more dependent on rainfall. The Blue
Nile is the main tributary of the Nile River, and has the largest flow volume among all
major tributaries, discharging about 50 BCM/year on average. The effect of annual
climate variability on the Blue Nile can be inferred from the recorded flows from
1911 to 2015, with a range from 20.69 BCM/year in 1913 to 69.85 BCM/year in
1929. The Blue Nile originates in Ethiopia, and flows downstream to Khartoum in
Sudan, where it joins the main Nile, which then flows into Egypt.
2 The “GERD” and The “Agreement on the Declaration
of Principles”
Ethiopia launched the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia in April 2011 and the project was about 65% complete
by November 2017. Figure 2 shows the progress of construction on the GERD and
the auxiliary Saddle Dam as of 2017.
GERD has become controversial because of its potential impacts on downstream
countries, Egypt and Sudan. In an attempt to assess the impact of the GERD on Egypt
and Sudan during filling and operation, the Center for Environment and Development
of the Arab Region and Europe (CEDARE) conducted a comprehensive study on the
potential impacts of the GERD on Egypt and Sudan (AbuZeid 2017a). Some of the
results of this study are presented here.
The “Agreement on the Declaration of Principles on the GERD,” signed by the
leaders of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan in March 2015, stipulates that the three countries will agree on “the first filling rules, the annual operation rules and will establish
a mechanism to coordinate the management of dams and reservoirs in the three countries.” It is therefore important to study the potential impacts of the GERD on the
downstream countries of Sudan and Egypt, so that determinations about filling and
operating rules can be made based on the results. A consortium of two consulting
firms was hired by the three countries to conduct formal impact assessment studies.