The scenarios method is essentially qualitative, trying to determine what paths a
risky phenomenon might take in the future starting with a present state of things. For
example, given available resources (water), what will happen if the demand grows
slowly or very quickly. Here, there are two possible scenarios, which may be further
combined with the possibility of drought or normal rainfall.
12.8.2 Monitoring Techniques
As it is difficult to forecast events, human society tries to monitor the course of
changes. Typically, observing the weather changes during the day usually indicates
the imminence of rainy weather or winds or cyclones. It is in this connection that
observation stations flourish around the world to monitor the relevant signs: seismic
tremor, wave heights, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, etc. . .
As an extension to land observatories, satellites are used for remote sensing
purposes. Our daily cloud images obtained by satellite enable the trained experts
to correctly interpret the changes in the atmospheric conditions over or near our
country. Processed in real time or with a slight time delay, a judicious warning
system may be established.
12.8.3 Warning
The warning is the last stage before the occurrence of the disaster. Of course, this
may occur at different levels – as is typical of cyclone Class 1, 2 and 3 warnings –
announcing the higher probability of strong (>120 km/h) winds and the Class
4 warning – confirming that winds of at least 120 km/h have been recorded. Other
countries may use warnings based on colour codes (Green, Yellow, Orange, Red).
The important thing is that people understand their meaning.
When the disaster can be sudden (e.g. tsunami, earthquake, volcano, etc), it may
be difficult to give several stages of warning.
12.8.4 Risk Reduction
It has been seen earlier that it is not easy to forecast when catastrophic events will
occur. Chapter 11 has indicated that resilience, based on adequate design, is one way
to mitigate the possible impacts, as this goes towards minimizing the eventual risks.
However, this approach may not be cheap. Therefore, unfortunately, some principles
have been proposed, apparently to reduce risks, but are more likely to be fashionable
and/or attract funds for research.
12.8 Before the Disaster
343
risky phenomenon might take in the future starting with a present state of things. For
example, given available resources (water), what will happen if the demand grows
slowly or very quickly. Here, there are two possible scenarios, which may be further
combined with the possibility of drought or normal rainfall.
12.8.2 Monitoring Techniques
As it is difficult to forecast events, human society tries to monitor the course of
changes. Typically, observing the weather changes during the day usually indicates
the imminence of rainy weather or winds or cyclones. It is in this connection that
observation stations flourish around the world to monitor the relevant signs: seismic
tremor, wave heights, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, etc. . .
As an extension to land observatories, satellites are used for remote sensing
purposes. Our daily cloud images obtained by satellite enable the trained experts
to correctly interpret the changes in the atmospheric conditions over or near our
country. Processed in real time or with a slight time delay, a judicious warning
system may be established.
12.8.3 Warning
The warning is the last stage before the occurrence of the disaster. Of course, this
may occur at different levels – as is typical of cyclone Class 1, 2 and 3 warnings –
announcing the higher probability of strong (>120 km/h) winds and the Class
4 warning – confirming that winds of at least 120 km/h have been recorded. Other
countries may use warnings based on colour codes (Green, Yellow, Orange, Red).
The important thing is that people understand their meaning.
When the disaster can be sudden (e.g. tsunami, earthquake, volcano, etc), it may
be difficult to give several stages of warning.
12.8.4 Risk Reduction
It has been seen earlier that it is not easy to forecast when catastrophic events will
occur. Chapter 11 has indicated that resilience, based on adequate design, is one way
to mitigate the possible impacts, as this goes towards minimizing the eventual risks.
However, this approach may not be cheap. Therefore, unfortunately, some principles
have been proposed, apparently to reduce risks, but are more likely to be fashionable
and/or attract funds for research.
12.8 Before the Disaster
343