6.4.3 Step 1: Scenario Generation
A scenario of future conditions detail out (as far as possible) the external parameters
under which infrastructure systems might operate. Sometimes, specific values can be
assigned, Scenarios describe the main factors that are outside the control of decision-makers (they are said to be “exogenous”), which influence the future performance of strategies. They include:
(1) changes in population – which influence the demand for infrastructure services.
(2) the economy – the demand for infrastructure services may increase in rich
economies, while economic growth will influence investment in infrastructure
systems.
(3) global energy prices will affect operation and maintenance costs
(4) the climate – climate extremes impose extreme operating conditions on infrastructure systems.
If D is the number of scenarios for demography, E for the economic sector, G for
global energy costs, and C for climate change scenarios, then a potential of C x D x
E x G combinations may have to be considered, However, with judicious reasoning,
this potentially high number of combinations may be reduced to a more manageable
number, the more so when many of these combinations produce very similar results.
6.4.4 Step 2: Strategy Generation
Strategies are sets of choices, or rationales for taking choices, about the provision of
infrastructure services. Strategies will typically involve investment in the provision
of infrastructure combined with instruments to manage infrastructure demand. They
extend across infrastructure sectors (energy, transport, water, waste and ICT), so
consist of strategic options from each of the sectors; It is not a fixed plan, as it is
recognised that the future performance of infrastructure depends on many
unpredictable factors and contingencies, to which the strategy should be adaptable.
There are genuine questions involved in choosing between different strategies:
• How much are we prepared to invest; where and when?
• What steps can be taken to manage demand for infrastructure services?
• How committed are we to reducing the environmental impacts of (a) legacy
infrastructure and of (b) the infrastructures that will be built in the future?
Three questions are important at high-level policy level:
(1) what is the willingness for providing new infrastructure or further investment?
(2) is there a will to address the environmental issues concerning infrastructure
operation?
(3) is there a commitment to address or manage demand through different instruments, such as important price nudges, incentives for technological and
behavioural change?
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A scenario of future conditions detail out (as far as possible) the external parameters
under which infrastructure systems might operate. Sometimes, specific values can be
assigned, Scenarios describe the main factors that are outside the control of decision-makers (they are said to be “exogenous”), which influence the future performance of strategies. They include:
(1) changes in population – which influence the demand for infrastructure services.
(2) the economy – the demand for infrastructure services may increase in rich
economies, while economic growth will influence investment in infrastructure
systems.
(3) global energy prices will affect operation and maintenance costs
(4) the climate – climate extremes impose extreme operating conditions on infrastructure systems.
If D is the number of scenarios for demography, E for the economic sector, G for
global energy costs, and C for climate change scenarios, then a potential of C x D x
E x G combinations may have to be considered, However, with judicious reasoning,
this potentially high number of combinations may be reduced to a more manageable
number, the more so when many of these combinations produce very similar results.
6.4.4 Step 2: Strategy Generation
Strategies are sets of choices, or rationales for taking choices, about the provision of
infrastructure services. Strategies will typically involve investment in the provision
of infrastructure combined with instruments to manage infrastructure demand. They
extend across infrastructure sectors (energy, transport, water, waste and ICT), so
consist of strategic options from each of the sectors; It is not a fixed plan, as it is
recognised that the future performance of infrastructure depends on many
unpredictable factors and contingencies, to which the strategy should be adaptable.
There are genuine questions involved in choosing between different strategies:
• How much are we prepared to invest; where and when?
• What steps can be taken to manage demand for infrastructure services?
• How committed are we to reducing the environmental impacts of (a) legacy
infrastructure and of (b) the infrastructures that will be built in the future?
Three questions are important at high-level policy level:
(1) what is the willingness for providing new infrastructure or further investment?
(2) is there a will to address the environmental issues concerning infrastructure
operation?
(3) is there a commitment to address or manage demand through different instruments, such as important price nudges, incentives for technological and
behavioural change?
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6 Infrastructure as a System