(4) using multiple performance metrics to obtain an aggregate view of infrastructure
performance,
(5) assessing vulnerability and risk management for infrastructure networks at a
national scale,
(6) looking at the national infrastructure from a long term view to investigate
different provision strategies for infrastructure,
(7) improving the management and governance of different infrastructure sectors
through an integrated approach to national infrastructure.
6.4.2 Scenarios and Assessment
We have now set out the framework and the main components in our system-ofsystems assessment of infrastructure performance. The main steps within that framework are:
Step 1 involves the construction of quantified scenarios of change in the exogenous
factors that influence future infrastructure system performance;
Step 2 involves the formulation of strategies for national infrastructure provision;
Step 3 uses system models to simulate those strategies and generate metrics of
system performance; and
Step 4 involves evaluation of infrastructure strategies to inform decision-making.
Scenario generation: A set of key exogenous factors are sampled, in order to test
how the infrastructure would perform when subjected to a wide variety of
possible and plausible future events.
Strategy generation: National infrastructure stakeholders are consulted to develop
national infrastructure provision strategies, using top-down and bottom-up
approaches, and iterating the process, if required. The strategies developed should
be explicitly linked to the corresponding policy commitments (e.g. funding,
environmental issues, managing demand, etc.), using a whole range of policy
instruments (from major investments to technology and demand). These strategies should coherently span the infrastructure sectors.
Infrastructure system performance evaluation: Infrastructure sector models
properly integrated around a central database are tested under different strategies.
The system models simulate strategies and generate metrics of system
performance.
Evaluating infrastructure strategies: The performance for each sector is assessed,
through suitable metrics, temporally, spatially and future conditions. Each sector’s performance can be compared through the necessary visual tools, so that the
right strategies can be proposed for informed and justified decision-making.
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169
performance,
(5) assessing vulnerability and risk management for infrastructure networks at a
national scale,
(6) looking at the national infrastructure from a long term view to investigate
different provision strategies for infrastructure,
(7) improving the management and governance of different infrastructure sectors
through an integrated approach to national infrastructure.
6.4.2 Scenarios and Assessment
We have now set out the framework and the main components in our system-ofsystems assessment of infrastructure performance. The main steps within that framework are:
Step 1 involves the construction of quantified scenarios of change in the exogenous
factors that influence future infrastructure system performance;
Step 2 involves the formulation of strategies for national infrastructure provision;
Step 3 uses system models to simulate those strategies and generate metrics of
system performance; and
Step 4 involves evaluation of infrastructure strategies to inform decision-making.
Scenario generation: A set of key exogenous factors are sampled, in order to test
how the infrastructure would perform when subjected to a wide variety of
possible and plausible future events.
Strategy generation: National infrastructure stakeholders are consulted to develop
national infrastructure provision strategies, using top-down and bottom-up
approaches, and iterating the process, if required. The strategies developed should
be explicitly linked to the corresponding policy commitments (e.g. funding,
environmental issues, managing demand, etc.), using a whole range of policy
instruments (from major investments to technology and demand). These strategies should coherently span the infrastructure sectors.
Infrastructure system performance evaluation: Infrastructure sector models
properly integrated around a central database are tested under different strategies.
The system models simulate strategies and generate metrics of system
performance.
Evaluating infrastructure strategies: The performance for each sector is assessed,
through suitable metrics, temporally, spatially and future conditions. Each sector’s performance can be compared through the necessary visual tools, so that the
right strategies can be proposed for informed and justified decision-making.
6.4 Applying Systems Analysis to Infrastructure
169