5.7.2 Applying the Backcasting Method
From the above, the possibilities can seem to be Business as Usual (BAU) or very
challenging. We may have to cater for a long term population of 1.0 million,
but also be prepared to handle a population of 1.2–1.8 million. The range is
enormous!
It becomes all the more important that we sit down and reflect (our vision) on the
mode of life that we would like to see in the future, given the state of technology and
its trends.
Figure 5.8 depicts the application of backcasting.
Some backcasting approaches involve the broad participation of stakeholders for
the identification of scenarios through workshops and interviews. Such studies take a
longer time and have higher cost implications, but they could be very useful in
securing consensus among the population about future development. The advantages of such an approach would be:
• enhanced legitimacy
• context/group specific knowledge
• increased reflexivity/quality of outcomes
• support for outcomes (co-ownership)
• learning (mental frameworks)
• accountability (increased co-responsibility)
It is important to identify the stakeholders who are NOT only experts, BUT also
people, groups, organizations, companies, knowledge institutes, governments, societal organisations, goods and service providers, etc. The steps required to apply the
backcasting method are given in Table 5.4.
It is important to try achieving consensus in the group accounting even minor
opinions. To set the ball rolling, the important criteria to be examined need to be well
set out and explained. For example, the list could be as follows:
A. Climate change
B. Prices for resources
. . .
. . .
Y. Demography dynamics
Z. Government policy
Is there any criterion which will mark the future? For example,
(1) what are the roles of Demographics, Political, Economic, Technological, Social/
Cultural aspects, etc.?
(2) can the level of impact and uncertainty for each of the criteria be assessed?
(3) what are the key uncertainties (criterion with high impact and high uncertainty)?
Possible solutions for the vision can be debated upon, as well as the different
options that characterize/differentiate these solutions.
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5 The Long Term Plan for Infrastructure
From the above, the possibilities can seem to be Business as Usual (BAU) or very
challenging. We may have to cater for a long term population of 1.0 million,
but also be prepared to handle a population of 1.2–1.8 million. The range is
enormous!
It becomes all the more important that we sit down and reflect (our vision) on the
mode of life that we would like to see in the future, given the state of technology and
its trends.
Figure 5.8 depicts the application of backcasting.
Some backcasting approaches involve the broad participation of stakeholders for
the identification of scenarios through workshops and interviews. Such studies take a
longer time and have higher cost implications, but they could be very useful in
securing consensus among the population about future development. The advantages of such an approach would be:
• enhanced legitimacy
• context/group specific knowledge
• increased reflexivity/quality of outcomes
• support for outcomes (co-ownership)
• learning (mental frameworks)
• accountability (increased co-responsibility)
It is important to identify the stakeholders who are NOT only experts, BUT also
people, groups, organizations, companies, knowledge institutes, governments, societal organisations, goods and service providers, etc. The steps required to apply the
backcasting method are given in Table 5.4.
It is important to try achieving consensus in the group accounting even minor
opinions. To set the ball rolling, the important criteria to be examined need to be well
set out and explained. For example, the list could be as follows:
A. Climate change
B. Prices for resources
. . .
. . .
Y. Demography dynamics
Z. Government policy
Is there any criterion which will mark the future? For example,
(1) what are the roles of Demographics, Political, Economic, Technological, Social/
Cultural aspects, etc.?
(2) can the level of impact and uncertainty for each of the criteria be assessed?
(3) what are the key uncertainties (criterion with high impact and high uncertainty)?
Possible solutions for the vision can be debated upon, as well as the different
options that characterize/differentiate these solutions.
154
5 The Long Term Plan for Infrastructure