It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link of the chain
of destiny can be handled at a time.
Winston Churchill
When people cannot benefit from infrastructure services in the immediate future, it
seems foolish to consider the long term as if that really matters. This chapter explains
why a long term view is required: (a) a major project takes a few years to construct
(b) carrying out the activities required prior to actual implementation may take
anything between 5–10 years (c) considering a short design period (20 years)
requires frequent renewal/updating of infrastructure installations (d) the project’s
useful life starts after its completion, and will be providing infrastructure (water)
facilities for the next 50 to 100 years or more. Forecasting is one method used for
such planning. The spirit of sustainable development requires that intergenerational
equity be carefully addressed. Given the constraints of planning and the lifetimes of
infrastructure facilities, it is necessary to daydream and think of the future possibilities. A backcasting approach is probably preferable together with other methods. It
is only by acting pro-actively now, rather than reacting after the crisis, that we can
hope to achieve a sustainable development rather than a sustainable infrastructure
nuisance!
5.1 Introduction
During the 1960s, there was the battle towards independence and suddenly, after
independence in 1968, an array of problems seemed to crop up. Many areas received
a poor water supply with daily cuts during the day, a problem which apparently is
still on the daily schedule for several areas in Mauritius. In the early 1980s,
colleagues in Réduit could end their lectures at noon, take a car trip to the Port
Louis market (8 km away) to buy their vegetables and still be able to come back in
time for their lectures starting at 1 p.m. A trip from Curepipe to Port Louis (18 km)
similarly took little time, with parking facilities under the very building where one
had a meeting. Presently, these 1980 realities are the dreams of 2060!
The quotations above do give an idea of the problem facing us. Even if things are
comfortable now, we can only address sustainable development by safeguarding
development for the next and successive generations by giving them a comfortable
start. Just like every parent tries to leave a significant legacy to offspring, we should
bequeath a comfortable infrastructure to the next generation which it can build upon:
this is the principle of intergenerational equity. If successive generations have to
correct the mistakes of past and present generations, then we have produced a
sustainable nuisance!
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5 The Long Term Plan for Infrastructure
of destiny can be handled at a time.
Winston Churchill
When people cannot benefit from infrastructure services in the immediate future, it
seems foolish to consider the long term as if that really matters. This chapter explains
why a long term view is required: (a) a major project takes a few years to construct
(b) carrying out the activities required prior to actual implementation may take
anything between 5–10 years (c) considering a short design period (20 years)
requires frequent renewal/updating of infrastructure installations (d) the project’s
useful life starts after its completion, and will be providing infrastructure (water)
facilities for the next 50 to 100 years or more. Forecasting is one method used for
such planning. The spirit of sustainable development requires that intergenerational
equity be carefully addressed. Given the constraints of planning and the lifetimes of
infrastructure facilities, it is necessary to daydream and think of the future possibilities. A backcasting approach is probably preferable together with other methods. It
is only by acting pro-actively now, rather than reacting after the crisis, that we can
hope to achieve a sustainable development rather than a sustainable infrastructure
nuisance!
5.1 Introduction
During the 1960s, there was the battle towards independence and suddenly, after
independence in 1968, an array of problems seemed to crop up. Many areas received
a poor water supply with daily cuts during the day, a problem which apparently is
still on the daily schedule for several areas in Mauritius. In the early 1980s,
colleagues in Réduit could end their lectures at noon, take a car trip to the Port
Louis market (8 km away) to buy their vegetables and still be able to come back in
time for their lectures starting at 1 p.m. A trip from Curepipe to Port Louis (18 km)
similarly took little time, with parking facilities under the very building where one
had a meeting. Presently, these 1980 realities are the dreams of 2060!
The quotations above do give an idea of the problem facing us. Even if things are
comfortable now, we can only address sustainable development by safeguarding
development for the next and successive generations by giving them a comfortable
start. Just like every parent tries to leave a significant legacy to offspring, we should
bequeath a comfortable infrastructure to the next generation which it can build upon:
this is the principle of intergenerational equity. If successive generations have to
correct the mistakes of past and present generations, then we have produced a
sustainable nuisance!
134
5 The Long Term Plan for Infrastructure