18 Using Clustering of Panel Data to Examine Housing Demand …
189
18.4 Application
This study aims to determine provinces in Turkey and countries showing common
feature according to the expectations the Turks living abroad and foreign countries
in housing demand. For this purpose, panel data set was formed, firstly, by monthly
data for the years 2013–2016 for provinces where expatriates demand housing from
Turkey (Antalya, Istanbul, Trabzon, Aydin, Bursa, Other Provinces, Mersin, Mugla,
Yalova, Ankara, Izmir, Sakarya) and secondly by considering economic factor indices
determining the demand for housing.
Economic factor indexes, European Currency, Bullion Gold, General Import,
Economic Confidence Index, Consumer Confidence Index, Real Sector Confidence
Index, Construction Sector Confidence Index, Employment Index, Employees in a
Paid Job are determined as the shadow variable taking a value of 1 for investment
purpose provinces and 0 for the others as described in detail in Table 18.1.
Subsequently, by considering the economic indices of foreign countries (Iraq,
Kuwait, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, China, Qatar, Yemen, Belgium, United
Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Ukraine, Netherlands, Norway, Afghanistan,
Germany, Azerbaijan, Iran, United Kingdom, Sweden, Kazakhstan and Other Countries) which demand housing from Turkey, monthly panel data set has been formed
for the years 2015–2016. Variables Monthly Number of House Sales to Foreigners
by National Nation, European Currency, Gold Bullion, Economic Confidence Index,
Consumer Confidence Index, Real Sector Confidence Index, Service Sector Confidence Index, Retail Trade Confidence Index are determined as the shadow variable
that takes the value of 1 for investment purpose provinces and 0 for the others, and
are described in detail in Tables 18.2 and 18.3.
Table 18.1 Turkey’s economic data for expats in demand for housing in Turkey
KT
Housing demand (monthly number of residential sales in overseas
settlements 48 months 2013–2016)
EURO
European currency/ Turkish Lira (exchange rate) monthly average 2013–2016
KALTIN
Gold ıngot selling gold price (TL/Gr) 2013–2016
D1
Dummy variable that takes value 1 for investment provinces and 0 for others
ITHALAT
General Imports (monthly foreign trade quantity indices by international
standard trade classification 2013–2016)
EGE
Economic confidence Index (2013–2016)
TUGE
Consumer confidence Index (2013–2016)
REGE
Real sector confidence Index (2013–2016)
ISGE
Construction sector confidence Index (2013–2016)
ISTHEN
Employment index (seasonally and calendar adjusted index) trade and service
indices and change rates (2013–2016)
UBIC
Paid employees (arriving citizens by general working status-residing in
Turkey-2013–2016) TSI, citizen entry survey
189
18.4 Application
This study aims to determine provinces in Turkey and countries showing common
feature according to the expectations the Turks living abroad and foreign countries
in housing demand. For this purpose, panel data set was formed, firstly, by monthly
data for the years 2013–2016 for provinces where expatriates demand housing from
Turkey (Antalya, Istanbul, Trabzon, Aydin, Bursa, Other Provinces, Mersin, Mugla,
Yalova, Ankara, Izmir, Sakarya) and secondly by considering economic factor indices
determining the demand for housing.
Economic factor indexes, European Currency, Bullion Gold, General Import,
Economic Confidence Index, Consumer Confidence Index, Real Sector Confidence
Index, Construction Sector Confidence Index, Employment Index, Employees in a
Paid Job are determined as the shadow variable taking a value of 1 for investment
purpose provinces and 0 for the others as described in detail in Table 18.1.
Subsequently, by considering the economic indices of foreign countries (Iraq,
Kuwait, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, China, Qatar, Yemen, Belgium, United
Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Ukraine, Netherlands, Norway, Afghanistan,
Germany, Azerbaijan, Iran, United Kingdom, Sweden, Kazakhstan and Other Countries) which demand housing from Turkey, monthly panel data set has been formed
for the years 2015–2016. Variables Monthly Number of House Sales to Foreigners
by National Nation, European Currency, Gold Bullion, Economic Confidence Index,
Consumer Confidence Index, Real Sector Confidence Index, Service Sector Confidence Index, Retail Trade Confidence Index are determined as the shadow variable
that takes the value of 1 for investment purpose provinces and 0 for the others, and
are described in detail in Tables 18.2 and 18.3.
Table 18.1 Turkey’s economic data for expats in demand for housing in Turkey
KT
Housing demand (monthly number of residential sales in overseas
settlements 48 months 2013–2016)
EURO
European currency/ Turkish Lira (exchange rate) monthly average 2013–2016
KALTIN
Gold ıngot selling gold price (TL/Gr) 2013–2016
D1
Dummy variable that takes value 1 for investment provinces and 0 for others
ITHALAT
General Imports (monthly foreign trade quantity indices by international
standard trade classification 2013–2016)
EGE
Economic confidence Index (2013–2016)
TUGE
Consumer confidence Index (2013–2016)
REGE
Real sector confidence Index (2013–2016)
ISGE
Construction sector confidence Index (2013–2016)
ISTHEN
Employment index (seasonally and calendar adjusted index) trade and service
indices and change rates (2013–2016)
UBIC
Paid employees (arriving citizens by general working status-residing in
Turkey-2013–2016) TSI, citizen entry survey