Identifying, assessing, and reducing vulnerability are seen as important steps
towards disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, and resilience building
(IPCC 2012).
The IPCC definition of vulnerability can be linked to a risk–hazard framework, in
which the classical definition of vulnerability focused on the current sensitivity of a
system and had to be extended to account for the heterogeneity and complexity of
the hazard and for dynamic aspects (Fussel 2005).
Based on Fussel (2005), and according to IPCC definitions, anthropogenic
climate change differs from other climate change processes. Climate change is a
continuous process that may either increase or decrease baseline risk levels, and
assessments need to express risk levels in comparison to a baseline scenario. Climate
change is a long-term process that is caused by human actions. Disaster risk
assessment sees vulnerability as a constant factor. The long time scales of climate
change require a dynamic assessment framework that accounts for uncertainty in
future hazard levels and changes in all groups of vulnerability factors over time.
Climate change is a complex, global, spatially heterogeneous, and uncertain process
that may have multiple effects on a system.
6.5.2 Land Management in the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment (MA)
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) was initiated in 2001 by the United
Nations Secretary with the objectives of assessing the consequences of ecosystem
changes to human well-being and identifying the scientific basis for actions needed
to enhance the conservation and sustainable use of those ecosystems and their
contributions to human well-being. The main findings of the MA indicate that
human actions are depleting Earth’s natural capital, putting such strain on the
environment that the ability of the planet’s ecosystems to sustain future generations
can no longer be taken for granted. Moreover, the assessment shows that with
appropriate actions, it is possible to reverse the degradation of many ecosystem
services over the next 50 years, but the changes in policy and practice required are
substantial and not currently underway (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005).
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) presents four scenarios that
explore reasonable aspects of global futures and their implications for ecosystem
services: Global Orchestration, Order from Strength, Adapting Mosaic, and
TechnoGarden (Table 6.1). Scenario development is a way to explore possibilities
for the future that cannot be predicted by the extrapolation of past and current trends.
All four scenarios have both strengths and potentially serious weaknesses. An ideal
future would probably involve a mix of all four, with different elements dominating
at different times and in different places. The future could be far better or worse than
any of these scenarios, depending on the choices made by key decision-makers and
other people in societies who bring about change. This work can be used to
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towards disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, and resilience building
(IPCC 2012).
The IPCC definition of vulnerability can be linked to a risk–hazard framework, in
which the classical definition of vulnerability focused on the current sensitivity of a
system and had to be extended to account for the heterogeneity and complexity of
the hazard and for dynamic aspects (Fussel 2005).
Based on Fussel (2005), and according to IPCC definitions, anthropogenic
climate change differs from other climate change processes. Climate change is a
continuous process that may either increase or decrease baseline risk levels, and
assessments need to express risk levels in comparison to a baseline scenario. Climate
change is a long-term process that is caused by human actions. Disaster risk
assessment sees vulnerability as a constant factor. The long time scales of climate
change require a dynamic assessment framework that accounts for uncertainty in
future hazard levels and changes in all groups of vulnerability factors over time.
Climate change is a complex, global, spatially heterogeneous, and uncertain process
that may have multiple effects on a system.
6.5.2 Land Management in the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment (MA)
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) was initiated in 2001 by the United
Nations Secretary with the objectives of assessing the consequences of ecosystem
changes to human well-being and identifying the scientific basis for actions needed
to enhance the conservation and sustainable use of those ecosystems and their
contributions to human well-being. The main findings of the MA indicate that
human actions are depleting Earth’s natural capital, putting such strain on the
environment that the ability of the planet’s ecosystems to sustain future generations
can no longer be taken for granted. Moreover, the assessment shows that with
appropriate actions, it is possible to reverse the degradation of many ecosystem
services over the next 50 years, but the changes in policy and practice required are
substantial and not currently underway (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005).
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) presents four scenarios that
explore reasonable aspects of global futures and their implications for ecosystem
services: Global Orchestration, Order from Strength, Adapting Mosaic, and
TechnoGarden (Table 6.1). Scenario development is a way to explore possibilities
for the future that cannot be predicted by the extrapolation of past and current trends.
All four scenarios have both strengths and potentially serious weaknesses. An ideal
future would probably involve a mix of all four, with different elements dominating
at different times and in different places. The future could be far better or worse than
any of these scenarios, depending on the choices made by key decision-makers and
other people in societies who bring about change. This work can be used to
222
M. Osaki et al.