6
A. Oliveira et al.
4. Policymakers should prioritize the implementation of evidence-based adaptation
measures, to efficiently increase the resilience of human population to hightemperature episodes. Furthermore, measures should include a focus on critical
populations segments, such as the poor and the elderly.
2 Human Health and High Atmospheric Temperatures
Epidemiological evidence of increased mortality and morbidity during heatwaves
or other episodes of high atmospheric temperature has been established, as well as
the contribution of several risk factors, such as ageing, behaviour, previous health
conditions (e.g. cardiovascular and respiratory disease) and socio-economic factors
(Basu and Samet 2002; Loughnan et al. 2012; Sanderson et al. 2017). Episodes of
high atmospheric temperature are expected to continue increasing, and the population
exposed to heat extremes has experienced a major increase since 1990 (Smith et al.
2014; Watts et al. 2018).
Due to the urban heat island effect, urban inhabitants are exposed to higher temperatures than rural populations. Future urban temperatures can rise due to the warming
climate and the expansion of urban centres. Many climate models do not simulate
urban climates, so current projections of future heat-related mortality within cities are
likely underestimated. Other pitfalls contribute to uncertainty in projections of future
heat-related mortality, such as misuse of climate models and emissions scenarios;
calibration methods; and the way population issues like adaptation to warmer temperatures, future population and demographic changes (particularly ageing) are included
(EASAC 2019; Sanderson et al. 2017).
In Portugal, current heat mortality risk is evaluated, for routine surveillance and
early warning purposes, using the ICARO surveillance system. This is based on
excess mortality estimates under a high-temperature forecast for the following three
days, calculated for the Portuguese mainland and its five NUTII regional divisions
(Nogueira and Paixão 2008; Nogueira et al. 2010).
Few studies have included risk projections for Portugal. A recent study included
the city of Lisbon (point representation, not regionalized) and classified it among
those in the top 25% maximum temperature during a heatwave (Guerreiro et al.
2018), suggesting a need for further research on this topic.
This study aims to contribute to a better preparedness of the Algarve region
(the southernmost Portuguese mainland region) in a context of climate change; it
was executed within the framework of the Algarve Intermunicipal Climate Change
Adaptation Plan—PIAAC-AMAL (Dias et al. 2019; Oliveira et al. 2019).
A. Oliveira et al.
4. Policymakers should prioritize the implementation of evidence-based adaptation
measures, to efficiently increase the resilience of human population to hightemperature episodes. Furthermore, measures should include a focus on critical
populations segments, such as the poor and the elderly.
2 Human Health and High Atmospheric Temperatures
Epidemiological evidence of increased mortality and morbidity during heatwaves
or other episodes of high atmospheric temperature has been established, as well as
the contribution of several risk factors, such as ageing, behaviour, previous health
conditions (e.g. cardiovascular and respiratory disease) and socio-economic factors
(Basu and Samet 2002; Loughnan et al. 2012; Sanderson et al. 2017). Episodes of
high atmospheric temperature are expected to continue increasing, and the population
exposed to heat extremes has experienced a major increase since 1990 (Smith et al.
2014; Watts et al. 2018).
Due to the urban heat island effect, urban inhabitants are exposed to higher temperatures than rural populations. Future urban temperatures can rise due to the warming
climate and the expansion of urban centres. Many climate models do not simulate
urban climates, so current projections of future heat-related mortality within cities are
likely underestimated. Other pitfalls contribute to uncertainty in projections of future
heat-related mortality, such as misuse of climate models and emissions scenarios;
calibration methods; and the way population issues like adaptation to warmer temperatures, future population and demographic changes (particularly ageing) are included
(EASAC 2019; Sanderson et al. 2017).
In Portugal, current heat mortality risk is evaluated, for routine surveillance and
early warning purposes, using the ICARO surveillance system. This is based on
excess mortality estimates under a high-temperature forecast for the following three
days, calculated for the Portuguese mainland and its five NUTII regional divisions
(Nogueira and Paixão 2008; Nogueira et al. 2010).
Few studies have included risk projections for Portugal. A recent study included
the city of Lisbon (point representation, not regionalized) and classified it among
those in the top 25% maximum temperature during a heatwave (Guerreiro et al.
2018), suggesting a need for further research on this topic.
This study aims to contribute to a better preparedness of the Algarve region
(the southernmost Portuguese mainland region) in a context of climate change; it
was executed within the framework of the Algarve Intermunicipal Climate Change
Adaptation Plan—PIAAC-AMAL (Dias et al. 2019; Oliveira et al. 2019).