Current and Future Human Exposure
to High Atmospheric Temperatures
in the Algarve, Portugal: Impacts
and Policy Recommendations
André Oliveira, Filipe Duarte Santos, and Luís Dias
1 Key Messages
1. There is currently evidence of increased morbidity and mortality associated
with high atmospheric temperatures. Risk factors such as age, ethnicity and
behavioural factors, among others, tend to aggravate these impacts. Urban areas
generally present an increased risk, both outdoor (mainly due to the urban heat
island effect) and indoor, due to low housing standards (such as poor insulation).
2. High-temperature episodes are currently the most relevant phenomenon to human
health in a context of climate change, considering the projected trend of temperature rise, estimated to increasingly affect the south of the European continent.
Additionally, increasing population exposure is expected, particularly during the
summer period.
3. This trend is critical for the Algarve region, considering its hot summer, with a
current average monthly maximum temperature of 28 °C in July and August,
projected to worsen progressively under climate change scenarios over the
century, particularly in the most severe scenario (i.e. RCP8.5) and the 2071–2100
period.
A. Oliveira (B) · L. Dias
Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Modelling Research Group (CCIAM), cE3c Research
Centre, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
e-mail: mafoliveira@fc.ul.pt
L. Dias
e-mail: lfdias@fc.ul.pt
F. D. Santos
Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies, University of Lisbon and New University
of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
e-mail: fdsantos@fc.ul.pt
© Zhejiang University Press 2021
F. W. Gatzweiler, Urban Health and Wellbeing Programme,
Urban Health and Wellbeing,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6036-5_2
5
to High Atmospheric Temperatures
in the Algarve, Portugal: Impacts
and Policy Recommendations
André Oliveira, Filipe Duarte Santos, and Luís Dias
1 Key Messages
1. There is currently evidence of increased morbidity and mortality associated
with high atmospheric temperatures. Risk factors such as age, ethnicity and
behavioural factors, among others, tend to aggravate these impacts. Urban areas
generally present an increased risk, both outdoor (mainly due to the urban heat
island effect) and indoor, due to low housing standards (such as poor insulation).
2. High-temperature episodes are currently the most relevant phenomenon to human
health in a context of climate change, considering the projected trend of temperature rise, estimated to increasingly affect the south of the European continent.
Additionally, increasing population exposure is expected, particularly during the
summer period.
3. This trend is critical for the Algarve region, considering its hot summer, with a
current average monthly maximum temperature of 28 °C in July and August,
projected to worsen progressively under climate change scenarios over the
century, particularly in the most severe scenario (i.e. RCP8.5) and the 2071–2100
period.
A. Oliveira (B) · L. Dias
Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Modelling Research Group (CCIAM), cE3c Research
Centre, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
e-mail: mafoliveira@fc.ul.pt
L. Dias
e-mail: lfdias@fc.ul.pt
F. D. Santos
Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies, University of Lisbon and New University
of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
e-mail: fdsantos@fc.ul.pt
© Zhejiang University Press 2021
F. W. Gatzweiler, Urban Health and Wellbeing Programme,
Urban Health and Wellbeing,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6036-5_2
5