than 8–15% water was available for plant growth (Cheddadi et al. 1998). A similar
pattern was established for a period 18000 years ago (Doumenge 1997).
Evidence suggests that the seasonal amplitude used to be higher than in the
present day, with average temperatures in hotter summers higher by 2 °C than in the
present, and colder winters with average temperatures lower by 1 and 2 °C than in
the present. A 1 °C temperature increase would provoke a 100 km vegetation shift
to the north. Simulations based on a 2 °C temperature increase and doubling CO 2
concentrations, delivered the development of deciduous forest areas in the northern
part of the Mediterranean Basin instead of an increase of the arid zones. Anthropogenic actions supposedly cause climate changes comparable to natural causes at a
much faster rate (e.g., Cheddadi et al. 1998, 2008; Grunderbeeck and Tourre 2008).
8.6.2 Changes in Temperature
The climate change projections to the Mediterranean region are built on the
numerical regional climate models, adding to information of CGMs, with resolutions up to tens of kilometres, e.g., 50 Â 50 km or 10 Â 10 km (Grunderbeeck and
Tourre 2008). Modeling studies have shown that in the South-Central European
region, extreme temperatures are increasing faster than mean temperatures indicating that heatwave frequency, amplitude, and length will become more drastic in
the twenty-first century. Drought indexes and proxies also show an increased
tendency for droughts in Southern and Southern-central Europe (Sippel and Otto
2014).
During the twentieth century, average air temperature in the Mediterranean
region rose within the range of 1.5–4 °C, depending on the sub-region. In Southwestern Europe, (Portugal, Spain, and Southern France) over the same period and
with a clear increase since 1970, air temperatures rose by almost 2 °C. In North
Africa, a similar warming tendency was harder to quantify largely due to an
incomplete measurement network.
Even if the EU objective of a 2 °C average temperature is achieved until the end
of this century, the temperature increases in the Mediterranean will exceed that
objective and due to environmental and socioeconomic specific conditions, the
impact will be more incisive than in other regions of the world. The predicted
increase of global average temperature in the Mediterranean Basin is correlated
with changes in precipitation and drought at local and regional levels, as it is in all
regions across the globe.
The average Mediterranean temperature has regional specificities based on its
geography, giving rise to seasonal variations. During winter, regions where the
average temperature is larger than the global regional average, abridge areas of the
Iberian Peninsula and Eastern Mediterranean. During spring, the opposite situation
prevails, and in the autumn a large area displaying strong sensitivity to global
climate change is seen. It includes parts of Southern France, Spain, and Northwest
Africa with a 1.3 °C temperature increase, compared to a 1 °C mean global temperature increase (Grunderbeeck and Tourre 2008).
8.6 A Brief Analysis of the Mediterranean …
293
pattern was established for a period 18000 years ago (Doumenge 1997).
Evidence suggests that the seasonal amplitude used to be higher than in the
present day, with average temperatures in hotter summers higher by 2 °C than in the
present, and colder winters with average temperatures lower by 1 and 2 °C than in
the present. A 1 °C temperature increase would provoke a 100 km vegetation shift
to the north. Simulations based on a 2 °C temperature increase and doubling CO 2
concentrations, delivered the development of deciduous forest areas in the northern
part of the Mediterranean Basin instead of an increase of the arid zones. Anthropogenic actions supposedly cause climate changes comparable to natural causes at a
much faster rate (e.g., Cheddadi et al. 1998, 2008; Grunderbeeck and Tourre 2008).
8.6.2 Changes in Temperature
The climate change projections to the Mediterranean region are built on the
numerical regional climate models, adding to information of CGMs, with resolutions up to tens of kilometres, e.g., 50 Â 50 km or 10 Â 10 km (Grunderbeeck and
Tourre 2008). Modeling studies have shown that in the South-Central European
region, extreme temperatures are increasing faster than mean temperatures indicating that heatwave frequency, amplitude, and length will become more drastic in
the twenty-first century. Drought indexes and proxies also show an increased
tendency for droughts in Southern and Southern-central Europe (Sippel and Otto
2014).
During the twentieth century, average air temperature in the Mediterranean
region rose within the range of 1.5–4 °C, depending on the sub-region. In Southwestern Europe, (Portugal, Spain, and Southern France) over the same period and
with a clear increase since 1970, air temperatures rose by almost 2 °C. In North
Africa, a similar warming tendency was harder to quantify largely due to an
incomplete measurement network.
Even if the EU objective of a 2 °C average temperature is achieved until the end
of this century, the temperature increases in the Mediterranean will exceed that
objective and due to environmental and socioeconomic specific conditions, the
impact will be more incisive than in other regions of the world. The predicted
increase of global average temperature in the Mediterranean Basin is correlated
with changes in precipitation and drought at local and regional levels, as it is in all
regions across the globe.
The average Mediterranean temperature has regional specificities based on its
geography, giving rise to seasonal variations. During winter, regions where the
average temperature is larger than the global regional average, abridge areas of the
Iberian Peninsula and Eastern Mediterranean. During spring, the opposite situation
prevails, and in the autumn a large area displaying strong sensitivity to global
climate change is seen. It includes parts of Southern France, Spain, and Northwest
Africa with a 1.3 °C temperature increase, compared to a 1 °C mean global temperature increase (Grunderbeeck and Tourre 2008).
8.6 A Brief Analysis of the Mediterranean …
293