8.6 A Brief Analysis of the Mediterranean Case Study
8.6.1 Introduction
The Mediterranean and its southern and eastern rims are regions where climate
change will be felt strongly over the twenty-first century. The direct impacts of
phenomena, such as global temperature rise, precipitation decrease, sea-level rise,
and other extreme climatic events, would be reinforced with the effects of
anthropogenic activities on the natural systems. These impacts include the
increasing water scarcity, and negative effects on sectors such as agriculture,
fishery, infrastructures, energy, and hydropower production.
The impact of climate change on the environment is already noticeable in the
Mediterranean and is producing observable effects on human activity. The
Mediterranean Basin incorporates a multitude of sub-areas with complex interactions between the physical systems that define the climate and biosphere, making it
a climate “hot spot” for climate change (e.g., Giorgi 2006). This region can also be
seen as a natural laboratory for assessing vulnerability and climate change impacts
and for introducing adaptation and emission-reducing measures (Grunderbeeck and
Tourre 2008). A geographical division commonly used for the sub-regions of the
Mediterranean Basin (e.g., Adloff et al. 2015) are the seven sub-basins ordered from
East to West: Levantine, Aegean, Ionian, Adriatic, Gulf of Lions, Western
Mediterranean, and Atlantic.
The climate projections forecasted for the Mediterranean fit into the profiles of
IPCC, characterized by an increase in air temperature of 2.2 and 5.1 °C (scenario
A1B of the AR4 Report) comparing 2080–2099 with 1980–1999, with differences
in sub-regions. The projections also point to (i) a decrease in rainfall from 4 to 27%,
(ii) an average increase of sea-level-rise of 0.35 m, (iii) an increase in drought days
evaluated by the higher yearly number of days with temperature exceeding 30 °C
(Giannakopoulos et al. 2005), and (iv) higher frequency and intensity of extreme
climatic events, such as heatwaves and floods.
Further predicted negative consequences are soil desertification, water scarcity,
rural wildfires, or forest biotic plagues. North African regions will be among the
Mediterranean areas more prone to drastic effects of climate change, in comparison
with the Northern Mediterranean.
In 2025, the GHG emissions in the Mediterranean Basin are predictably to be
twice as high as they were in 1990, largely due to the energy demand. The growth rate
in emissions of carbon dioxide will tend to be higher in Southern and Eastern
Mediterranean regions, by comparison with the Northern Mediterranean. The GHG
emissions in some regions increased between 1990 and 2004 by about 58%, arguably
a considerable emission rate on the global scale. While in the Northern Mediterranean
countries, the transport sectors ranked first as GHG emitter between 1990 and 2004,
in the Southern and Eastern that ranking was for electricity and heating.
About 6000 years ago, the climate was warmer in the Mediterranean Basin, with
temperatures in winter higher by 1–3 °C than in the present day, and about more
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8 Fundamentals of Global Carbon Budgets and Climate Change
8.6.1 Introduction
The Mediterranean and its southern and eastern rims are regions where climate
change will be felt strongly over the twenty-first century. The direct impacts of
phenomena, such as global temperature rise, precipitation decrease, sea-level rise,
and other extreme climatic events, would be reinforced with the effects of
anthropogenic activities on the natural systems. These impacts include the
increasing water scarcity, and negative effects on sectors such as agriculture,
fishery, infrastructures, energy, and hydropower production.
The impact of climate change on the environment is already noticeable in the
Mediterranean and is producing observable effects on human activity. The
Mediterranean Basin incorporates a multitude of sub-areas with complex interactions between the physical systems that define the climate and biosphere, making it
a climate “hot spot” for climate change (e.g., Giorgi 2006). This region can also be
seen as a natural laboratory for assessing vulnerability and climate change impacts
and for introducing adaptation and emission-reducing measures (Grunderbeeck and
Tourre 2008). A geographical division commonly used for the sub-regions of the
Mediterranean Basin (e.g., Adloff et al. 2015) are the seven sub-basins ordered from
East to West: Levantine, Aegean, Ionian, Adriatic, Gulf of Lions, Western
Mediterranean, and Atlantic.
The climate projections forecasted for the Mediterranean fit into the profiles of
IPCC, characterized by an increase in air temperature of 2.2 and 5.1 °C (scenario
A1B of the AR4 Report) comparing 2080–2099 with 1980–1999, with differences
in sub-regions. The projections also point to (i) a decrease in rainfall from 4 to 27%,
(ii) an average increase of sea-level-rise of 0.35 m, (iii) an increase in drought days
evaluated by the higher yearly number of days with temperature exceeding 30 °C
(Giannakopoulos et al. 2005), and (iv) higher frequency and intensity of extreme
climatic events, such as heatwaves and floods.
Further predicted negative consequences are soil desertification, water scarcity,
rural wildfires, or forest biotic plagues. North African regions will be among the
Mediterranean areas more prone to drastic effects of climate change, in comparison
with the Northern Mediterranean.
In 2025, the GHG emissions in the Mediterranean Basin are predictably to be
twice as high as they were in 1990, largely due to the energy demand. The growth rate
in emissions of carbon dioxide will tend to be higher in Southern and Eastern
Mediterranean regions, by comparison with the Northern Mediterranean. The GHG
emissions in some regions increased between 1990 and 2004 by about 58%, arguably
a considerable emission rate on the global scale. While in the Northern Mediterranean
countries, the transport sectors ranked first as GHG emitter between 1990 and 2004,
in the Southern and Eastern that ranking was for electricity and heating.
About 6000 years ago, the climate was warmer in the Mediterranean Basin, with
temperatures in winter higher by 1–3 °C than in the present day, and about more
292
8 Fundamentals of Global Carbon Budgets and Climate Change