18.2 Activities
411
and hydrological modeling, no significant breakthroughs were achieved comparable
to those in the 1990s. From 2001–2005, the key state project “Impact Thresholds
and Comprehensive Assessment of Climatic Abnormal on Freshwater Resources in
China” was created by employing a distributed hydrological model to assess the
impact of given climate change scenarios on water resources in China. The most
extensive analysis was conducted through the National Water Resources Comprehensive Plan, which analyzed hydrological cycle changes between 1950 and 2000. From
2010–2014,the National Program on Key Basic Research Project (973 Program)
funded two projects to research the impact of climate change on hydrological cycles
and water security in the Yellow, Huai, and Hai River Basins and the Northwest arid
regions, where the driving forces of flood and drought were studied.
At present, China is paying increasing attention to the impact of climate change
on water resources. MWR has listed climate change’s impact on water resources as
a key research area. In 2008, MWR conducted the project “Climatic Change Impact
on Water Security and its Adaptive Strategy in China.” In 2010, the Ministry of
Science and Technology launched the Climate Change Special Projects, of which
water resources are among the key topics.
In reviewing these studies, two types of research methods are used: the future
scenario method and the monitored data method. The future scenario method generally predicted the impact of future climate change on precipitation, which was then
extended to consider runoff, water resources, and hydro-infrastructure operations.
In developing the future scenarios, global circulation model (GCM) outputs were
a priority for use in the 1980s and 1990s; GCM and RCM outputs were both used
after the 2000s. Additionally, the use of the given scenarios is another option. The
monitored data method is mainly applied after 2000, likely because that data series
in China was relatively short if analyzed in the 1980s. Most of these studies used data
series from 1950–2000. The monitored data used in these studies include precipitation, runoff, evaporation, and temperature. At the same time, the research has evolved
to consider annual average parameters to hydrological extremes, including flooding
and droughts.
If considering regions with water shortages, Northern China and especially Northwest China is a research-heavy region. In addition to studies involving all of China,
about 80% of studies were in Northwest China river basins, including the Xinjiang
region and Gansu province. Some studies have concentrated on North China or the
Yellow, Huai, and Hai River Basins. Very few studies consider South and East China.
18.3 Precipitation
18.3.1 Observations
According to the water resources and development assessment conducted by MWR
and completed in 2006, between two data series from 1956–1979 and 1980–2000,
411
and hydrological modeling, no significant breakthroughs were achieved comparable
to those in the 1990s. From 2001–2005, the key state project “Impact Thresholds
and Comprehensive Assessment of Climatic Abnormal on Freshwater Resources in
China” was created by employing a distributed hydrological model to assess the
impact of given climate change scenarios on water resources in China. The most
extensive analysis was conducted through the National Water Resources Comprehensive Plan, which analyzed hydrological cycle changes between 1950 and 2000. From
2010–2014,the National Program on Key Basic Research Project (973 Program)
funded two projects to research the impact of climate change on hydrological cycles
and water security in the Yellow, Huai, and Hai River Basins and the Northwest arid
regions, where the driving forces of flood and drought were studied.
At present, China is paying increasing attention to the impact of climate change
on water resources. MWR has listed climate change’s impact on water resources as
a key research area. In 2008, MWR conducted the project “Climatic Change Impact
on Water Security and its Adaptive Strategy in China.” In 2010, the Ministry of
Science and Technology launched the Climate Change Special Projects, of which
water resources are among the key topics.
In reviewing these studies, two types of research methods are used: the future
scenario method and the monitored data method. The future scenario method generally predicted the impact of future climate change on precipitation, which was then
extended to consider runoff, water resources, and hydro-infrastructure operations.
In developing the future scenarios, global circulation model (GCM) outputs were
a priority for use in the 1980s and 1990s; GCM and RCM outputs were both used
after the 2000s. Additionally, the use of the given scenarios is another option. The
monitored data method is mainly applied after 2000, likely because that data series
in China was relatively short if analyzed in the 1980s. Most of these studies used data
series from 1950–2000. The monitored data used in these studies include precipitation, runoff, evaporation, and temperature. At the same time, the research has evolved
to consider annual average parameters to hydrological extremes, including flooding
and droughts.
If considering regions with water shortages, Northern China and especially Northwest China is a research-heavy region. In addition to studies involving all of China,
about 80% of studies were in Northwest China river basins, including the Xinjiang
region and Gansu province. Some studies have concentrated on North China or the
Yellow, Huai, and Hai River Basins. Very few studies consider South and East China.
18.3 Precipitation
18.3.1 Observations
According to the water resources and development assessment conducted by MWR
and completed in 2006, between two data series from 1956–1979 and 1980–2000,