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Y. Wang
see a turning point one after another, but China will still face huge resource and
environmental pressure. The 14th Five-Year Plan period will be a critical period for
green transformation. China must word hard to further reduce energy intensity and
carbon intensity, improve the use efficiency of resources, solidify the decoupling of
emissions of major pollutants and economic growth, and speed up the development
of a resource-conserving and environmentally friendly green development system,
thus blazing a new trail of green transformation with Chinese characteristics.
1. Resource and environmental pressure will reach a peak in the coming years
Energy demand is expected to peak between 2030 and 2040, while fossil fuel energy
consumption and carbon emissions around 2030. China’s peak energy demand is
estimated at 6–8 billion tons of standard coal equivalent, and per capital peak energy
consumption may account for 32–42% of that in the U.S. and 65–84% of that in
Japan. In terms of energy mix, China’s coal consumption has reached a plateau since
2014, but coal will remain a major source of energy for a long time and still account
for more than 50% of China’s total primary energy consumption after 2030. Oil
demand will see a slow increase and is expected to exceed 8 million tons in 2030.
Natural gas consumption will grow steadily at an annual average rate of about 5%,
and its share in total primary energy consumption will rise from 7.8% in 2018 to
15% in 2030. Demand for wind energy, solar energy, and other renewable energy
sources will increase substantially, and non-fossil energy consumption is expected
to surpass that of oil by 2025.
Discharges of major pollutants have reached a turning point. Sulfur dioxide and
nitrogen oxide emissions have successively peaked and entered a downward trend,
while volatile organic compounds and ammonia emissions are expected to reach their
peaks before 2020. The combined emissions of major air pollutants may peak around
2020. Due to the influence of nonpoint source pollution from agriculture, emissions
of water pollutants may peak between 2020 and 2025 and then stay more-or-less flat.
It is still uncertain when environmental quality will meet the standard in every
aspect. The overall air quality has improved. It is expected that by 2025, 50% of
cities will meet the air quality standard, the proportion of days with good air quality
in 338 cities at and above the prefecture level will further increase, and the annual
average concentration of PM 2.5 will continue to decline, while ozone may become
a new major pollutant. There is still uncertainty about the improvement of the overall
water quality given the considerable differences in the progress in the water quality
of main rivers, lakes, groundwater, and oceans. Compared with air and water quality,
to fundamentally improve the soil quality is an even more arduous task.
2. Greater efforts should be made in green transformation during the 14th
five-year plan period
Following China’s success in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects,
the 14th Five-Year Plan period will mark the beginning of a new journey of comprehensively building a modern socialist country. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,
Y. Wang
see a turning point one after another, but China will still face huge resource and
environmental pressure. The 14th Five-Year Plan period will be a critical period for
green transformation. China must word hard to further reduce energy intensity and
carbon intensity, improve the use efficiency of resources, solidify the decoupling of
emissions of major pollutants and economic growth, and speed up the development
of a resource-conserving and environmentally friendly green development system,
thus blazing a new trail of green transformation with Chinese characteristics.
1. Resource and environmental pressure will reach a peak in the coming years
Energy demand is expected to peak between 2030 and 2040, while fossil fuel energy
consumption and carbon emissions around 2030. China’s peak energy demand is
estimated at 6–8 billion tons of standard coal equivalent, and per capital peak energy
consumption may account for 32–42% of that in the U.S. and 65–84% of that in
Japan. In terms of energy mix, China’s coal consumption has reached a plateau since
2014, but coal will remain a major source of energy for a long time and still account
for more than 50% of China’s total primary energy consumption after 2030. Oil
demand will see a slow increase and is expected to exceed 8 million tons in 2030.
Natural gas consumption will grow steadily at an annual average rate of about 5%,
and its share in total primary energy consumption will rise from 7.8% in 2018 to
15% in 2030. Demand for wind energy, solar energy, and other renewable energy
sources will increase substantially, and non-fossil energy consumption is expected
to surpass that of oil by 2025.
Discharges of major pollutants have reached a turning point. Sulfur dioxide and
nitrogen oxide emissions have successively peaked and entered a downward trend,
while volatile organic compounds and ammonia emissions are expected to reach their
peaks before 2020. The combined emissions of major air pollutants may peak around
2020. Due to the influence of nonpoint source pollution from agriculture, emissions
of water pollutants may peak between 2020 and 2025 and then stay more-or-less flat.
It is still uncertain when environmental quality will meet the standard in every
aspect. The overall air quality has improved. It is expected that by 2025, 50% of
cities will meet the air quality standard, the proportion of days with good air quality
in 338 cities at and above the prefecture level will further increase, and the annual
average concentration of PM 2.5 will continue to decline, while ozone may become
a new major pollutant. There is still uncertainty about the improvement of the overall
water quality given the considerable differences in the progress in the water quality
of main rivers, lakes, groundwater, and oceans. Compared with air and water quality,
to fundamentally improve the soil quality is an even more arduous task.
2. Greater efforts should be made in green transformation during the 14th
five-year plan period
Following China’s success in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects,
the 14th Five-Year Plan period will mark the beginning of a new journey of comprehensively building a modern socialist country. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,