30
H. Schlör et al.
The analysis also shows how the FEW nexus sector develops over the observed
time. In the zero and de-growth scenarios, gross output and consumption of the nexus
products remain the same over the observed period in the zero-growth (A) scenario,
and in the de-growth scenario (D) the demand for the nexus commodities declines,
whereas in the other two countries (B, C) the demand increases continuously. The
decline and unchanged investments in the nexus sectors of country A and D will have a
negative impact on the prosperity and adaptability of its FEW nexus sectors, whereas
in the other countries B and C the investments increase in the 12-year period and build
the foundation of future economic growth with increasing resource consumption and
rising emissions.
Our four-country-stylized GE model further reveals the economic effects of a
zero-growth and de-growth strategy. Overall, the model demonstrates that restrictions on economic growth have repercussions on all economic variables. The zerogrowth and de-growth strategies confirm the hypothesis that these strategies reduce
the production and consumption emissions.
The loss of economic growth leads to a reduction in the utility of the households and a reduction of labour and capital demand and of future prosperity due
to the decline of investment. The question arises how these losses can be offset
by other societal, political and institutional developments in the countries with a
de-growth or zero-growth approach. These alternatives would have to provide new
job and utility generating opportunities to compensate the observed utility losses
and enable a sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth to avoid distortions as currently imposed by the Corona pandemic. New institutional and political
measures would have to account for the fact that “in a world economy that does
not grow, the powerless and vulnerable are the most likely to lose [59]”. Further
research is needed on how the decline in utility of the households of these countries
can be balanced economically and politically. This decision-making process should
involve all stakeholders and institutions, so that good governance has to mediate
the differing interests in the socio-economic adaptation process. Additional research
is also needed on the economic effects of relocating the workforce and the capital
stock from formal classical economic sectors to a new de-growth economic world,
in which the FEW nexus will build the centre.
7 Recommendations for Further Research
The previous analysis has shown that in the case of negative or zero-growth scenarios,
a decline of the labour demand in countries A and D (Table 14) can be observed. The
following research question thus arises: Can these countries develop a “de-growth
compensation sector” to compensate for and take up the labour force released by
the traditional economic sector? In this context, it should also to be analysed, if this
new alternative sector can even out the utility reduction (see Table 18) caused by the
growth strategy in the traditional economic sectors. It has to be investigated, if the
new “de-growth compensation sector” can provide enough new job opportunities
H. Schlör et al.
The analysis also shows how the FEW nexus sector develops over the observed
time. In the zero and de-growth scenarios, gross output and consumption of the nexus
products remain the same over the observed period in the zero-growth (A) scenario,
and in the de-growth scenario (D) the demand for the nexus commodities declines,
whereas in the other two countries (B, C) the demand increases continuously. The
decline and unchanged investments in the nexus sectors of country A and D will have a
negative impact on the prosperity and adaptability of its FEW nexus sectors, whereas
in the other countries B and C the investments increase in the 12-year period and build
the foundation of future economic growth with increasing resource consumption and
rising emissions.
Our four-country-stylized GE model further reveals the economic effects of a
zero-growth and de-growth strategy. Overall, the model demonstrates that restrictions on economic growth have repercussions on all economic variables. The zerogrowth and de-growth strategies confirm the hypothesis that these strategies reduce
the production and consumption emissions.
The loss of economic growth leads to a reduction in the utility of the households and a reduction of labour and capital demand and of future prosperity due
to the decline of investment. The question arises how these losses can be offset
by other societal, political and institutional developments in the countries with a
de-growth or zero-growth approach. These alternatives would have to provide new
job and utility generating opportunities to compensate the observed utility losses
and enable a sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth to avoid distortions as currently imposed by the Corona pandemic. New institutional and political
measures would have to account for the fact that “in a world economy that does
not grow, the powerless and vulnerable are the most likely to lose [59]”. Further
research is needed on how the decline in utility of the households of these countries
can be balanced economically and politically. This decision-making process should
involve all stakeholders and institutions, so that good governance has to mediate
the differing interests in the socio-economic adaptation process. Additional research
is also needed on the economic effects of relocating the workforce and the capital
stock from formal classical economic sectors to a new de-growth economic world,
in which the FEW nexus will build the centre.
7 Recommendations for Further Research
The previous analysis has shown that in the case of negative or zero-growth scenarios,
a decline of the labour demand in countries A and D (Table 14) can be observed. The
following research question thus arises: Can these countries develop a “de-growth
compensation sector” to compensate for and take up the labour force released by
the traditional economic sector? In this context, it should also to be analysed, if this
new alternative sector can even out the utility reduction (see Table 18) caused by the
growth strategy in the traditional economic sectors. It has to be investigated, if the
new “de-growth compensation sector” can provide enough new job opportunities