4
H. Schlör et al.
of Maddison verified [44–48]. The Economist wrote about the pioneering work of
Maddison: “He believed that the ‘pace and pattern’ of economic activity had deep
historical roots. Economies, he thought, do not ‘take off’, as if from nowhere [76].”
And the New York Times characterizes Maddison as a scientist, who “devoted his
life to forecasting the past [61].” In the following, it will be analysed how the current
economic growth emerged, presenting some highlights of Maddison’s forecast of the
past and its historical roots.
Comparing data across such a long period requires the consideration of relevant
concurrent developments. In this context, especially the development of the world
population is of interest. As Fig. 1 shows, there was no significant change in the
world population during the first thousand years and only a very moderate growth of
population until 1700.
From 1700 onwards, however, population growth had significantly accelerated
for roughly 200 years, before it finally took off in the twentieth century.
The data of Table 1 further shows that until 1820 GDP and the world population
developed relatively similarly. However, between 1820 and 1870 the gap became
larger. By 1870, the population had risen roughly by a factor of six as compared to
year 1, whereas GDP had increased by more than a factor of 10. This split further
increased over the next 140 years. Considering the full period from year 1 until 2008,
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
1
1000
1500
1600
1700
1820
1870
1913
2008
World GDP
World Population
in 1000
in millions
Fig. 1 History of world population and GDP—year 1 until 2008. Source Own calculation (2020)
based on Maddison (Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GGDC)) [48]. *GDP: Million
1990 International Geary-Khamis dollars
Table 1 Increase of world population and world GDP—year 1 = 100
1820/1
1870/1
1913/1
2008/1
Population
461.3
564.9
794.0
2964.7
GDP
658.0
1052.8
2593.1
48,361.4
Source Own calculation (2020), based on Maddison [48]
H. Schlör et al.
of Maddison verified [44–48]. The Economist wrote about the pioneering work of
Maddison: “He believed that the ‘pace and pattern’ of economic activity had deep
historical roots. Economies, he thought, do not ‘take off’, as if from nowhere [76].”
And the New York Times characterizes Maddison as a scientist, who “devoted his
life to forecasting the past [61].” In the following, it will be analysed how the current
economic growth emerged, presenting some highlights of Maddison’s forecast of the
past and its historical roots.
Comparing data across such a long period requires the consideration of relevant
concurrent developments. In this context, especially the development of the world
population is of interest. As Fig. 1 shows, there was no significant change in the
world population during the first thousand years and only a very moderate growth of
population until 1700.
From 1700 onwards, however, population growth had significantly accelerated
for roughly 200 years, before it finally took off in the twentieth century.
The data of Table 1 further shows that until 1820 GDP and the world population
developed relatively similarly. However, between 1820 and 1870 the gap became
larger. By 1870, the population had risen roughly by a factor of six as compared to
year 1, whereas GDP had increased by more than a factor of 10. This split further
increased over the next 140 years. Considering the full period from year 1 until 2008,
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
1
1000
1500
1600
1700
1820
1870
1913
2008
World GDP
World Population
in 1000
in millions
Fig. 1 History of world population and GDP—year 1 until 2008. Source Own calculation (2020)
based on Maddison (Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GGDC)) [48]. *GDP: Million
1990 International Geary-Khamis dollars
Table 1 Increase of world population and world GDP—year 1 = 100
1820/1
1870/1
1913/1
2008/1
Population
461.3
564.9
794.0
2964.7
GDP
658.0
1052.8
2593.1
48,361.4
Source Own calculation (2020), based on Maddison [48]