7
The WLB also report concludes warming of 4°C or more could reduce the global
human population by 80% or 90%, and the World Bank reports “there is no certainty
that adaptation to a 4 °C temperature rise would be possible.” Quoting Professor
Kevin Anderson, the report claims a 4 °C future “is incompatible with an organized
global community and is likely to be beyond adaptation by the majority of people.”
(WLB 2018, p. 14).
The WLB report also claims that the often-quoted prediction of likely temperature increases if current NDCs are complied with of approximately 3 °C rise does
not take into account the considerable risk that self-reinforcing feedback loops
could be triggered when certain thresholds are reached leading to an ever-increasing
rise in temperature. These potential thresholds include the melting of the Arctic
permafrost releasing methane into the atmosphere, forest dieback releasing carbon
currently stored in the Amazon and boreal forests, with the melting of polar ice caps
that would no longer reflect the light and heat from the sun (WLB 2018, p. 14).
The report cites a recent study by the European Commission’s Joint Research
Center found that if global temperature rose to 4 °C that extreme heat waves with
“apparent temperatures” peeking over 55 °C (131 °F) will begin to regularly affect
many densely populated parts of the world, forcing much activity in the modern
industrial world to stop (WLB 2018, p. 14). The paper claims that one study found
that even a 2 °C warming “would double the land area subject to deadly heat and
expose 48% of the population to deadly heat.” (WLB 2018, p. 14).
According to the WLB report, a 4 °C warming by 2100 would subject 47% of the
land area and almost 74% of the world population to deadly heat which could pose
existential risks to humans and mammals alike unless massive adaptation measures
are implemented (WLB 2018, p. 14).
The WLB paper also explains how IPCC’s understatements of likely climate
change impacts affect what is generally claimed among climate policy-makers
about elements of climate science including climate models, climate tipping points,
climate sensitivity, carbon budgets, permafrost and carbon cycles, arctic sea ice,
polar ice-mass loss, and sea-level rise.
3 The Ethical Duty to Engage in Precautionary Climate
Change Science
Opponents of climate change policies have successfully convinced governments
and many citizens around that government action to prevent potential harms not
fully proven is unjustified because such actions are based on “bad science.”
Ethics would require higher levels of proof of those who are engaged in dangerous behavior to prove their behavior is safe in proportion to how potentially dangerous the behavior is especially for harms to others who have not consented to be
harmed and for behaviors that become more dangerous the longer one waits to
reduce the uncertainty. International environmental law also contains principles that
Lessons Learned from IPCC’s Underestimation of Climate Change Impacts…
The WLB also report concludes warming of 4°C or more could reduce the global
human population by 80% or 90%, and the World Bank reports “there is no certainty
that adaptation to a 4 °C temperature rise would be possible.” Quoting Professor
Kevin Anderson, the report claims a 4 °C future “is incompatible with an organized
global community and is likely to be beyond adaptation by the majority of people.”
(WLB 2018, p. 14).
The WLB report also claims that the often-quoted prediction of likely temperature increases if current NDCs are complied with of approximately 3 °C rise does
not take into account the considerable risk that self-reinforcing feedback loops
could be triggered when certain thresholds are reached leading to an ever-increasing
rise in temperature. These potential thresholds include the melting of the Arctic
permafrost releasing methane into the atmosphere, forest dieback releasing carbon
currently stored in the Amazon and boreal forests, with the melting of polar ice caps
that would no longer reflect the light and heat from the sun (WLB 2018, p. 14).
The report cites a recent study by the European Commission’s Joint Research
Center found that if global temperature rose to 4 °C that extreme heat waves with
“apparent temperatures” peeking over 55 °C (131 °F) will begin to regularly affect
many densely populated parts of the world, forcing much activity in the modern
industrial world to stop (WLB 2018, p. 14). The paper claims that one study found
that even a 2 °C warming “would double the land area subject to deadly heat and
expose 48% of the population to deadly heat.” (WLB 2018, p. 14).
According to the WLB report, a 4 °C warming by 2100 would subject 47% of the
land area and almost 74% of the world population to deadly heat which could pose
existential risks to humans and mammals alike unless massive adaptation measures
are implemented (WLB 2018, p. 14).
The WLB paper also explains how IPCC’s understatements of likely climate
change impacts affect what is generally claimed among climate policy-makers
about elements of climate science including climate models, climate tipping points,
climate sensitivity, carbon budgets, permafrost and carbon cycles, arctic sea ice,
polar ice-mass loss, and sea-level rise.
3 The Ethical Duty to Engage in Precautionary Climate
Change Science
Opponents of climate change policies have successfully convinced governments
and many citizens around that government action to prevent potential harms not
fully proven is unjustified because such actions are based on “bad science.”
Ethics would require higher levels of proof of those who are engaged in dangerous behavior to prove their behavior is safe in proportion to how potentially dangerous the behavior is especially for harms to others who have not consented to be
harmed and for behaviors that become more dangerous the longer one waits to
reduce the uncertainty. International environmental law also contains principles that
Lessons Learned from IPCC’s Underestimation of Climate Change Impacts…