66
6 Emerging Challenges to Transboundary Water Governance
Council singles out the following international basins that are likely to pose the
greatest transboundary security challenges up to 2040: the Indus, the Jordan, the
Mekong, the Nile, the Tigris-Euphrates, the Amu Darya and the Brahmaputra. All
of these basins are expected to witness degraded food security, reduced resilience to
floods and droughts and continuing regional tensions. Importantly, the institutional
capacity of these basins can be judged as moderate at best, but mainly limited or
inadequate (US National Intelligence Council 2012a). A 2014 study by Adelphi, a
consultancy, commissioned by the German Federal Foreign Office also identified
the same hotspots of potential transboundary conflicts (Adelphi 2014). The Strategic
Foresight Group goes further in its analysis in so far as it tries to predict the risk
and the direction of armed conflict over shared water resources around the world.
Based on their assessment the following countries may be inclined to engage in
military action for water: (Middle East) Turkey → Syria, Iraq; Syria → Israel, Turkey,
Jordan; Israel → Palestine, Lebanon, Syria; Jordan → Syria; Palestine → Israel; Iraq
→ Turkey; (Asia) Afghanistan → Pakistan; Pakistan → Afghanistan, India; India
→ Pakistan, China; China → India, Vietnam; Vietnam → China; North Korea →
South Korea; South Korea → North Korea; (Africa) Algeria → Morocco; Morocco
→ Algeria; Sudan → South Sudan; South Sudan → Sudan; Eritrea → Ethiopia,
Djibouti; Ethiopia → Eritrea, Somalia; Djibouti → Ereitrea, Somalia; Somalia →
Ethiopia (Strategic Foresight Group 2015).
References
Adelphi (2014) The rise of hydro-diplomacy—strengthening foreign policy for transboundary
waters. Climate Diplomacy Report, Berlin
Bigas H (ed) (2012) The global water crisis: addressing an urgent security issue. Papers for the
InterAction Council. UNU, Hamilton, ON
Conca K (2006) Governing water: contentious transnational politics and global institution building.
MIT Press, Cambridge, MA
De Stefano L, Duncan J, Dinar S, Stahl K, Strzepek K, Wolf A (2010) Mapping the resilience of
international river basins to future climate change-induced water variability. World Bank Water
Sector Board Discussion Paper Series, Paper No. 15. The World Bank, Washington DC
De Stefano L, Duncan J, Dinar S, Stahl K, Strzepek K, Wolf A (2012) Climate change and the
institutional resilience of international river basins. J Peace Res 49(1):193–209
Dinar S, Katz D, David, De Stefano L, Blankespoor B (2014) Climate change, conflict, and cooperation—global analysis of the resilience of international river treaties to increased water variability.
Policy Research Working Paper 6916. The World Bank, Washington DC
Fischer G, Hizsnyik E, Tramberend S, Wiberg D (2015) Towards indicators for water security—a
global hydro-economic classification of water challenges. IIASA Interim Report. International
Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Jiménez Cisneros B, Oki T, Arnell N, Benito G, Cogley J, Döll P, Jiang T, Mwakalila S (2014) Freshwater resources. In: Field C et al (eds) Climate change: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Part
A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Milly P, Betencourt J, Falkenmark M, Hirsch R, Kundzewicz Z, Lettenmaier D, Stouffer R (2008)
Stationarity is dead: whiter water management? Science 319:573–579
6 Emerging Challenges to Transboundary Water Governance
Council singles out the following international basins that are likely to pose the
greatest transboundary security challenges up to 2040: the Indus, the Jordan, the
Mekong, the Nile, the Tigris-Euphrates, the Amu Darya and the Brahmaputra. All
of these basins are expected to witness degraded food security, reduced resilience to
floods and droughts and continuing regional tensions. Importantly, the institutional
capacity of these basins can be judged as moderate at best, but mainly limited or
inadequate (US National Intelligence Council 2012a). A 2014 study by Adelphi, a
consultancy, commissioned by the German Federal Foreign Office also identified
the same hotspots of potential transboundary conflicts (Adelphi 2014). The Strategic
Foresight Group goes further in its analysis in so far as it tries to predict the risk
and the direction of armed conflict over shared water resources around the world.
Based on their assessment the following countries may be inclined to engage in
military action for water: (Middle East) Turkey → Syria, Iraq; Syria → Israel, Turkey,
Jordan; Israel → Palestine, Lebanon, Syria; Jordan → Syria; Palestine → Israel; Iraq
→ Turkey; (Asia) Afghanistan → Pakistan; Pakistan → Afghanistan, India; India
→ Pakistan, China; China → India, Vietnam; Vietnam → China; North Korea →
South Korea; South Korea → North Korea; (Africa) Algeria → Morocco; Morocco
→ Algeria; Sudan → South Sudan; South Sudan → Sudan; Eritrea → Ethiopia,
Djibouti; Ethiopia → Eritrea, Somalia; Djibouti → Ereitrea, Somalia; Somalia →
Ethiopia (Strategic Foresight Group 2015).
References
Adelphi (2014) The rise of hydro-diplomacy—strengthening foreign policy for transboundary
waters. Climate Diplomacy Report, Berlin
Bigas H (ed) (2012) The global water crisis: addressing an urgent security issue. Papers for the
InterAction Council. UNU, Hamilton, ON
Conca K (2006) Governing water: contentious transnational politics and global institution building.
MIT Press, Cambridge, MA
De Stefano L, Duncan J, Dinar S, Stahl K, Strzepek K, Wolf A (2010) Mapping the resilience of
international river basins to future climate change-induced water variability. World Bank Water
Sector Board Discussion Paper Series, Paper No. 15. The World Bank, Washington DC
De Stefano L, Duncan J, Dinar S, Stahl K, Strzepek K, Wolf A (2012) Climate change and the
institutional resilience of international river basins. J Peace Res 49(1):193–209
Dinar S, Katz D, David, De Stefano L, Blankespoor B (2014) Climate change, conflict, and cooperation—global analysis of the resilience of international river treaties to increased water variability.
Policy Research Working Paper 6916. The World Bank, Washington DC
Fischer G, Hizsnyik E, Tramberend S, Wiberg D (2015) Towards indicators for water security—a
global hydro-economic classification of water challenges. IIASA Interim Report. International
Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Jiménez Cisneros B, Oki T, Arnell N, Benito G, Cogley J, Döll P, Jiang T, Mwakalila S (2014) Freshwater resources. In: Field C et al (eds) Climate change: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Part
A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Milly P, Betencourt J, Falkenmark M, Hirsch R, Kundzewicz Z, Lettenmaier D, Stouffer R (2008)
Stationarity is dead: whiter water management? Science 319:573–579