60
6 Emerging Challenges to Transboundary Water Governance
As regards ecosystem degradation and pollution most indicators show high risks in
all populated areas of the world. For aggregated pollution hazards the eastern United
States, the whole of Europe, the Indian sub-continent, China and the Mekong basin
are at the highest risk category. For environmental flow requirements the hotspots
are slightly different. All arid and semiarid regions of the world are experiencing
serious violations of environmental flow requirements, including the western United
States, the Iberian Peninsula, central Asia, South Africa, the Tigris-Euphrates basin,
much of the Indian subcontinent, China’s main river basins or eastern Australia (see
Fig. 6.2) (Vörösmarty et al. 2000).
6.3.3 Political Implications of the Global Water Crisis
and the Growing Water Insecurity
The potential gravity of the effects of the global water crisis on global political
security is such that it has prompted some commentators to describe the present
situation as a “hydro-climatic time bomb” (Bigas 2012). A 2012 publication of the US
National Intelligence Council identifies four megatrends that will critically shape our
world by 2030. Three of these megatrends are social-political in nature (individual
empowerment, diffusion of power, demographic patterns), only one relates to the
physical environment: the growing food, water and energy nexus. In view of the
projected 40% increase in demand for water and the intensification of severe weather
patterns described above, many countries probably will not be able to avoid water
and food shortages without massive external help. That nearly half of the world’s
population will live in areas experiencing severe water stress will affect not only
already fragile states in Africa and the Middle East, but China and India will also
turn vulnerable (see Fig. 6.2). As a result, concludes the study, “water may become
a more significant source of contention than energy or minerals out to 2030 at both
the intrastate and interstate levels”. The condition that the highest degree of water
stress is expected to emerge in shared river basins raises the potential of interstate
conflict, despite the fact that historically water tensions have led to more watersharing agreements than violent conflicts (US National Intelligence Council 2012a).
While water-related state-to-state conflicts are unlikely to erupt in the next decade,
water will be increasingly used as leverage and to obtain/increase regional influence
by states in regions of difficult hydrology. This can take several shapes, but constructing or halting major water infrastructure projects that manipulate transboundary water flows are expected to continue as a major tool of intra-basin politics. In
terms of domestic politics water can become a powerful precursor to national instability. Water problems, when combined with poverty, social tensions, environmental
degradation, weak political institutions, etc. contribute to social disruptions that can
result in state failure. Consequently, growing water insecurity will be a destabilising
factor in many countries that, in turn, is likely to spill over to inter-state relations
(US National Intelligence Council 2012b).
6 Emerging Challenges to Transboundary Water Governance
As regards ecosystem degradation and pollution most indicators show high risks in
all populated areas of the world. For aggregated pollution hazards the eastern United
States, the whole of Europe, the Indian sub-continent, China and the Mekong basin
are at the highest risk category. For environmental flow requirements the hotspots
are slightly different. All arid and semiarid regions of the world are experiencing
serious violations of environmental flow requirements, including the western United
States, the Iberian Peninsula, central Asia, South Africa, the Tigris-Euphrates basin,
much of the Indian subcontinent, China’s main river basins or eastern Australia (see
Fig. 6.2) (Vörösmarty et al. 2000).
6.3.3 Political Implications of the Global Water Crisis
and the Growing Water Insecurity
The potential gravity of the effects of the global water crisis on global political
security is such that it has prompted some commentators to describe the present
situation as a “hydro-climatic time bomb” (Bigas 2012). A 2012 publication of the US
National Intelligence Council identifies four megatrends that will critically shape our
world by 2030. Three of these megatrends are social-political in nature (individual
empowerment, diffusion of power, demographic patterns), only one relates to the
physical environment: the growing food, water and energy nexus. In view of the
projected 40% increase in demand for water and the intensification of severe weather
patterns described above, many countries probably will not be able to avoid water
and food shortages without massive external help. That nearly half of the world’s
population will live in areas experiencing severe water stress will affect not only
already fragile states in Africa and the Middle East, but China and India will also
turn vulnerable (see Fig. 6.2). As a result, concludes the study, “water may become
a more significant source of contention than energy or minerals out to 2030 at both
the intrastate and interstate levels”. The condition that the highest degree of water
stress is expected to emerge in shared river basins raises the potential of interstate
conflict, despite the fact that historically water tensions have led to more watersharing agreements than violent conflicts (US National Intelligence Council 2012a).
While water-related state-to-state conflicts are unlikely to erupt in the next decade,
water will be increasingly used as leverage and to obtain/increase regional influence
by states in regions of difficult hydrology. This can take several shapes, but constructing or halting major water infrastructure projects that manipulate transboundary water flows are expected to continue as a major tool of intra-basin politics. In
terms of domestic politics water can become a powerful precursor to national instability. Water problems, when combined with poverty, social tensions, environmental
degradation, weak political institutions, etc. contribute to social disruptions that can
result in state failure. Consequently, growing water insecurity will be a destabilising
factor in many countries that, in turn, is likely to spill over to inter-state relations
(US National Intelligence Council 2012b).