4.3.2 Results and Discussions
4.3.2.1 Scenario Study of CO 2 , SO 2 , and NO x Emissions
CO 2 , SO 2 , and NO x emissions resulting from energy consumption in 2030 are
shown in Fig. 4.6. China plans to reduce the intensity of CO 2 emissions per unit
of GDP in 2030 by 60–65% compared with 2005 levels. Here, we use 65% as the
target abatement level. If compared with the BAU scenario in 2030, CO 2 emissions
will be reduced by 32.5% in the TAR scenario. Simultaneously, SO 2 and NO x
emissions in 2030 will be reduced by 33.2% and 25.6%, respectively, in the TAR
scenario compared with BAU. In Japan, CO 2 emissions in 2030 will be reduced by
34.6% in TAR compared with BAU, while SO 2 and NO x emissions will be reduced
by 24.1% and 33.8%, respectively. However, the absolute abatement values are
relatively small, removing 0.13 Mt. SO 2 and 0.37 Mt. NO x from the BAU scenario in
2030. The CO 2 reduction target for Korea in 2030 is to reduce 37% of CO 2
emissions compared with the BAU scenario. If this emission target is achieved,
SO 2 emissions will be reduced by 44.3%, and NO x will be reduced by 38.8%
compared with BAU.
Efforts to reduce CO 2 emissions will result in saving energy, switching among
fossil fuels, and switching from fossil fuels to renewables or energy sources with low
or no emissions. This will also reduce SO 2 and NO x emissions. The co-benefit
effects of carbon reduction vary by country because of different energy consumption
structures and different existing removal rates. If the existing removal rate is low,
carbon abatement efforts will have greater reduction effects on SO 2 and NO x , as in
China and Korea. Otherwise, co-benefit effects are reduced, as for co-benefit reduction of SO 2 and NO x in Japan. The existing removal rates of SO 2 and NO x are
relatively high in Japan, and carbon reduction has a limited impact on the total
emissions of SO 2 and NO x .
Fig. 4.6 Scenarios of CO 2 , SO 2 , and NO x emissions in 2030 under business-as-usual (BAU) and
target (TAR) scenarios
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4.3.2.1 Scenario Study of CO 2 , SO 2 , and NO x Emissions
CO 2 , SO 2 , and NO x emissions resulting from energy consumption in 2030 are
shown in Fig. 4.6. China plans to reduce the intensity of CO 2 emissions per unit
of GDP in 2030 by 60–65% compared with 2005 levels. Here, we use 65% as the
target abatement level. If compared with the BAU scenario in 2030, CO 2 emissions
will be reduced by 32.5% in the TAR scenario. Simultaneously, SO 2 and NO x
emissions in 2030 will be reduced by 33.2% and 25.6%, respectively, in the TAR
scenario compared with BAU. In Japan, CO 2 emissions in 2030 will be reduced by
34.6% in TAR compared with BAU, while SO 2 and NO x emissions will be reduced
by 24.1% and 33.8%, respectively. However, the absolute abatement values are
relatively small, removing 0.13 Mt. SO 2 and 0.37 Mt. NO x from the BAU scenario in
2030. The CO 2 reduction target for Korea in 2030 is to reduce 37% of CO 2
emissions compared with the BAU scenario. If this emission target is achieved,
SO 2 emissions will be reduced by 44.3%, and NO x will be reduced by 38.8%
compared with BAU.
Efforts to reduce CO 2 emissions will result in saving energy, switching among
fossil fuels, and switching from fossil fuels to renewables or energy sources with low
or no emissions. This will also reduce SO 2 and NO x emissions. The co-benefit
effects of carbon reduction vary by country because of different energy consumption
structures and different existing removal rates. If the existing removal rate is low,
carbon abatement efforts will have greater reduction effects on SO 2 and NO x , as in
China and Korea. Otherwise, co-benefit effects are reduced, as for co-benefit reduction of SO 2 and NO x in Japan. The existing removal rates of SO 2 and NO x are
relatively high in Japan, and carbon reduction has a limited impact on the total
emissions of SO 2 and NO x .
Fig. 4.6 Scenarios of CO 2 , SO 2 , and NO x emissions in 2030 under business-as-usual (BAU) and
target (TAR) scenarios
4 Modeling the East Asian Low-Carbon Community
97